Voting & Elections
What's Going On in Donald Trump's Head? We Don't Have Brain Scans. We Do Have This.
No one can say for sure what's going on in the president's head. His 25 greatest obsessions can get us a little closer. This is the year the first baby boomers--those born in 1946--turn 80, and that cohort includes Donald Trump. We have all recently lived through what it means to have an 80-year-old commander in chief, but at a political moment that's simultaneously more horrific, erratic, and just plain befuddling than anything this country has seen in ages, we wanted to understand the brain of 80-year-old president. Plenty of people are trying to discern whether his recent rants and raves are due to a more serious cognitive decline--we understand the instinct; we've done it too --but we went a different (if related) route. The more we dug into Trump's many fixations, the more we realized that this man still thinks he lives in the 1980s. We also discovered--without too much surprise--that he often seems to fundamentally misunderstand the works he treasures most deeply. These items might not replace a brain map, but they do create a certain holistic view of what animates and splinters Trump's mind. Sometimes, they just help explain his worldview. Other times, they seem to have had real influence on policy and the America that Trump is trying to create. Welcome to Trump Brain, the 25 things that define who the president is--and what he wants. Please enable javascript to fully experience this interactive. When millions of people took to the streets in October to protest Trump's authoritarianism, the president responded by dunking on his critics online. Specifically, he posted an A.I.-generated video of a fighter jet, piloted by himself in a literal crown, dropping human excrement onto the crowds. It was perhaps Trump's most juvenile use of A.I. slop yet--the kind of low-quality, feverish content made possible by artificial intelligence. Trump undoubtedly is the perfect president for the A.I. slop era. In some ways, this is because he's the ideal audience for it: Like many older internet users delighted by the technology, Trump seems to enjoy mindless, cartoonish, childish content. One of the videos he shared depicted him playing soccer with Cristiano Ronaldo in the Oval Office.
Lopez: As Compton students ace tests, educators are baffled by Rep. Maxine Waters' snub of school bond
Things to Do in L.A. Tap to enable a layout that focuses on the article. As Compton students ace tests, educators are baffled by Rep. Maxine Waters' snub of school bond Students walk on campus at Dominguez High School in Compton. A bond measure would provide millions of dollars to rebuild the school. This is read by an automated voice. Please report any issues or inconsistencies here .
Prediction-Powered Inference Across Many Tasks for AI Evaluation & Social Science Research
Emmenegger, Nicolas, Stahler, Ellery, Podimata, Chara
Many applications require statistically valid inference across many related "tasks", while using only a handful of high-quality labels per hypothesis. In AI evaluation, these tasks may correspond to model behaviors across prompts, subgroups, or hypotheses; in social science surveys, they may correspond to related questions, populations, or measurement conditions. Prediction-powered inference (PPI) uses abundant but inexpensive proxy measurements to improve inference from limited, "ground-truth" labels, but commonly used methods treat tasks independently and therefore fail to exploit shared structure across related tasks. This limitation is especially important in settings where only a small number of labels are available per task. To address this issue, we introduce a multi-task prediction-powered inference framework that uses labeled data from related tasks to improve power while preserving task-specific inference. Our methods exploit the shared structure in the proxy-ground-truth relationship through cross-task recalibration, while retaining within-task rectification and power tuning to construct accurate point estimates and confidence intervals. We prove that efficiency gains beyond power-tuned PPI are only possible when the proxy-ground-truth relationship contains nonlinear structure; affine cross-task recalibrations are asymptotically equivalent to using the original proxy. We complement our theoretical findings with experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets, as well as a case study auditing language models on election-related information during the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Using a large human-annotation study, we show that cross-task recalibration can substantially reduce confidence interval widths when labels are scarce.
The GOP's Attacks on James Talarico Are Straight Out of the Incel Handbook
The GOP's Attacks on James Talarico Are Straight Out of the Incel Handbook Claims about low testosterone and false accusations of veganism might play well to the online far right, but will they win an election? Democratic US Senate candidate James Talarico speaks in Houston, Texas. On Tuesday, with Donald Trump's endorsement and the backing of the MAGA faithful, scandal-ridden Texas attorney general Ken Paxton defeated incumbent US senator John Cornyn in a runoff primary to claim the Republican nomination for that seat. He then quickly set about painting his general-election opponent, Democratic Texas state representative James Talarico, as insufficiently masculine. "My opponent is the most extreme radical that Democrats have ever nominated," Paxton said in his victory speech.
Will Ken Paxton Hand Democrats a Texas Senate Seat?
Paxton trounces Cornyn in the Texas Senate Republican primary runoff; Trump waffles between a losing "peace deal" and a return to war in Iran; and congressional candidate Alex Bores makes the case for AI regulation. Please enable javascript to get your Slate Plus feeds. If you can't access your feeds, please contact customer support. Check your phone for a link to finish setting up your feed. Please enter a valid phone number.
Ballots Have Been Seized Across the US. No One Knows What Will Happen Next
Ballots Have Been Seized Across the US. So far this year, authorities have seized or demanded ballots from elections in four states. Experts fear the trend could throw the midterms into chaos unless courts draw a line. As US voters look to the November midterms, the Trump administration is obsessed with looking back to past elections, seizing ballots cast years ago in several states in search, it claims, of fraud or other malfeasance. But experts believe the goal may be more varied. The seizures began in January when FBI agents armed with a warrant raided an election facility in Fulton County, Georgia, and grabbed 600 boxes of ballots from 2020.
Realistic AI-created content to require labels during Japan's election campaigns
Realistic AI-created content to require labels during Japan's election campaigns Aisawa Ichiro of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party speaks during a meeting of lawmakers Wednesday held to discuss the use of AI in election campaigns. The ruling and opposition parties agreed Wednesday to require videos and images related to election campaigns made using artificial intelligence to be labeled as "AI-created," as part of efforts to tackle misinformation on social media during campaign periods. The requirement will apply to videos and images that may be mistaken for those not generated by AI, while those that can be clearly identified as made using AI will be excluded. The parties aim to submit a bill that defines the requirement to parliament during its current session, set to end in July, to put the rule in place ahead of unified local elections next spring. The bill will add a provision to the public offices election law to prohibit internet users from harming the fairness of elections by spreading false information about candidates. Whether to impose penalties on offenders remains to be determined.
Function-Valued Causal Influence in Nonlinear Time Series
Kuskova, Valentina V., Zaytsev, Dmitry, Coppedge, Michael
Causal discovery in time series is increasingly performed using nonlinear machine-learning models, yet the resulting causal relationships are almost always summarized by scalar edge scores. We argue that this practice obscures the true object learned by nonlinear autoregressive models: a state-dependent function whose effect varies across regimes, magnitudes, and contexts. We formalize function-valued causal influence for additive, contribution-decomposable architectures and show that scalar causal scores constitute a severe information bottleneck, conflating between-state variation with within-state residual noise. Using Neural Additive Vector Autoregression as a representative architecture, we introduce a practical framework based on Individual Conditional Expectation for estimating causal response functions directly from trained models. Through controlled synthetic experiments, we demonstrate that edges with indistinguishable scalar scores can exhibit qualitatively different functional behaviors, including monotonic, thresholded, saturating, and sign-changing effects. An applied case study on democratic development further shows that function-valued analysis reveals regime-specific and asymmetric causal structure systematically missed by score-centric approaches.
From gym injuries to top-40 mysteries, these are five telltale signs you are past your prime
Sydney Thomas dominates the red carpet in Cannes as her star continues to rise, new MLB power couple & MEAT! Viral staff photo reveals just how bloated Stephen Colbert's'Late Show' operation really was Four of the most controversial television finales in honor of'The Boys' despised ending Sophie Cuningham has heads spinning with her pregame outfit, Colbert's final jab & lessons from Kyle Busch Adrenaline-packed preview released for upcoming D-Day film'Pressure,' features loaded cast Kacey Musgraves responds to'fat activist' furious because she can't fit into her new Walmart clothing line Selena Gomez is reportedly bringing her talents to award-winning director's new four-hour X-rated movie Minka Kelly uncorks a heater at 45, ABS backfires spectacularly and LSU parents vs a security guard! Robot's lifeless corpse hauled off stage after fall during disastrous Michael Jackson impression Bear cubs spar on woman's front porch in adorable viral nature video, reactions pour in Trump weighs new Iran strikes as officials call US demands'unreasonable' Texas Democratic candidate says Zionists are a'danger to humanity' 'Gutfeld!': DNC finally releases 2024 election autopsy We must make sure Russia and China can't prop Iran up, Sen Marsha Blackburn says We're focused on getting UFO whistleblower protections, Rep Anna Paulina Luna says In this episode, human biologist Gary Brecka and best-selling author Michael Easter (The Comfort Crisis) join Sean Hannity to reveal the science-backed secrets to adding 20+ years to your life. From the mortality data used by insurance companies to the simple habits of the world's longest-living people, this conversation is your blueprint for total health transformation.