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MM-Forecast: A Multimodal Approach to Temporal Event Forecasting with Large Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study an emerging and intriguing problem of multimodal temporal event forecasting with large language models. Compared to using text or graph modalities, the investigation of utilizing images for temporal event forecasting has not been fully explored, especially in the era of large language models (LLMs). To bridge this gap, we are particularly interested in two key questions of: 1) why images will help in temporal event forecasting, and 2) how to integrate images into the LLM-based forecasting framework. To answer these research questions, we propose to identify two essential functions that images play in the scenario of temporal event forecasting, i.e., highlighting and complementary. Then, we develop a novel framework, named MM-Forecast. It employs an Image Function Identification module to recognize these functions as verbal descriptions using multimodal large language models (MLLMs), and subsequently incorporates these function descriptions into LLM-based forecasting models. To evaluate our approach, we construct a new multimodal dataset, MidEast-TE-mm, by extending an existing event dataset MidEast-TE-mini with images. Empirical studies demonstrate that our MM-Forecast can correctly identify the image functions, and further more, incorporating these verbal function descriptions significantly improves the forecasting performance. The dataset, code, and prompts are available at https://github.com/LuminosityX/MM-Forecast.


Iran trying to sabotage Trump's presidential campaign: US intelligence

FOX News

U.S. intelligence officials believe that Iran is trying to sabotage former President Trump's presidential campaign through online influence operations, according to a press briefing on Monday. Speaking to reporters, an official with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) said U.S. spy agencies "observed Tehran working to influence the presidential election," likely because Iranian leaders want to avoid increased tensions with the U.S. The official didn't directly say that Iran was trying to undermine Trump, but that American spies "haven't observed a shift in Iran's preferences" since 2020, meaning that Iran was still targeting Trump. During the briefing, an intelligence official also said Iran is utilizing "vast webs of online personas and propaganda mills to spread disinformation," in addition to different online campaigns. U.S. intelligence officials believe Iran is meddling in the 2024 election. Earlier in July, Tehran was accused of a separate plot to kill Trump after a gunman shot the former president at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13.


Iran's assassination plot against Trump latest attempt to kill Americans on US soil

FOX News

JERUSALEM - The Iranian regime's plot to assassinate former President Trump is the latest in a string of attempts by Tehran to lethally target American officials and Iranian American dissidents. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has effectively put bounties on the heads of Trump, his former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and ex-National Security Advisor John Bolton for their roles in the U.S. drone strike that eliminated the global Iranian terrorist Qassem Soleimani in 2020. According to the U.S. government, Soleimani was responsible for the murders of over 600 American military personnel in the Middle East. BOLTON CALLS IRAN ASSASSINATION PLOT AN'ACT OF WAR,' CALLS ON BIDEN ADMIN TO'TERMINATE' NUCLEAR TALKS Former President Trump, left, and Iranian leader Ali Khamenei. Fox News Digital reported on Tuesday that the Department of Homeland Security received intelligence from a human source about the planned Iranian assassination of Trump.


What Raisi's Death Means for the Future of Iran

The New Yorker

I last interviewed Ebrahim Raisi, the ultra-hard-line President of Iran, during his dรฉbut appearance at the United Nations, in 2022. He spoke belligerently and with such speed that the interpreter struggled to keep up. He was the same on the U.N. dais, where he furiously waved a photo of General Qassem Soleimani and demanded that Donald Trump be tried for ordering his assassination--a "savage, illegal, immoral crime"--in a U.S. drone strike, in 2020. Back home, Iran was in turmoil after nationwide protests erupted in response to the death, in police custody, of a twenty-two-year-old named Mahsa Amini. She had been arrested for improper hijab; too much hair was showing.


Top secret Iranian drone site used by IRGC, terror proxies exposed by opposition group

FOX News

IDF Special Operations veteran Aaron Cohen and executive director of The Lawfare Project Brooke Goldstein react to Israel's'limited' retaliatory strike on Iran on'Hannity.' The People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran (MEK), an exiled Iranian resistance group, provided a report to Fox News Digital presenting evidence of a top-secret unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) site in the Islamic Republic of Iran, north of Qom City in the Ganjine region. According to the report, members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are trained to use "all kinds of drones" at the base, including the Mohajer series, manufactured by Qods Aviation Industry. Employees of Qods Aviation Industry also reportedly use the site to train small groups of Iranian proxy operatives of Hezbollah, as well as members of Iranian proxy groups from Syria, Yemen and Iraq, to use the Mohajer-4 drone platform. The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), based on information from the MEK, told Fox News Digital that the site is a proving ground for Mohajer-4, Mohajer-6, and Mohajer-10 drones.


Drones Believed to Have Been Used in Iran Attack Are a Common Israeli Weapon

NYT > Middle East

Iranian officials said that the Israeli strike on Friday morning was carried out by small exploding drones, a tactic that would follow a well-established pattern in Israeli attacks on Iranian military targets. As Israel has targeted Iranian defense and military officials and infrastructure, small drones -- specifically ones known as quadcopters -- have been a signature of those operations. Quadcopter drones, so named because they have four rotors, have a short flight range and can explode on impact. The drones might have been launched from inside Iran, whose radar systems had not detected unidentified aircraft entering Iranian airspace, Iranian officials said. If the drones were launched within the country, it demonstrates once again Israel's ability to mount clandestine operations in Iranian territory.


Israel Launched Missiles as Well as Drones at Iran, Officials Say

NYT > Middle East

Israeli warplanes fired missiles on Iran during a retaliatory strike early Friday morning, one Western official and two Iranian officials said, suggesting that the attack included more advanced firepower than initial reports indicated. It was not immediately clear the types of missiles used, from where they were fired, whether any were intercepted by Iran's defenses or where they landed. The Western official and the Iranian officials requested anonymity to discuss classified information. Previously, Iranian officials said Friday's attack on a military base in central Iran was conducted by small aerial drones, most likely launched from inside Iranian territory. A separate group of small drones, they said soon after the attack, was shot down in the region of Tabriz, roughly 500 miles north of Isfahan.


US imposes new sanctions on Iran after attack on Israel

Al Jazeera

The administration of United States President Joe Biden has imposed new sanctions on Iran in response to its missile and drone attack on Israel, as tensions mount over the possibility of further escalation in the Middle East. In a statement on Thursday, Biden said the sanctions targeted "leaders and entities connected to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran's Defense Ministry, and the Iranian government's missile and drone program that enabled" the April 13 attack on Israel. "As I discussed with my fellow G7 [Group of Seven] leaders the morning after the attack, we are committed to acting collectively to increase economic pressure on Iran," the US president said. "And our allies and partners have or will issue additional sanctions and measures to restrict Iran's destabilizing military programs." Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel in the early hours on Sunday, in retaliation for the deadly bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria's capital, Damascus, earlier this month.


How well could Iran defend itself against a potential Israeli attack?

Al Jazeera

Tehran, Iran โ€“ Israel has pledged to "exact a price" from Iran in response to missile and drone attacks launched by Tehran in retaliation to the deadly bombing of its consulate in Syria at the beginning of this month. Israel's war cabinet has met several times to debate a course of action to complement a diplomatic push against Iran since Saturday's unprecedented direct attacks on Israel, with Israeli army chief of staff Herzi Halevi saying a military response is certain. Iranian President Raisi threatened a "massive and harsh response" on Wednesday if Israel decides to launch a direct military assault on Iranian soil. So how effectively can Iran defend itself if such an attack occurs? For decades, Iran has increasingly insisted on relying on its local capabilities when it comes to its economy, but a similar push can also be seen in its military sector.


Israel pushes for new sanctions on Iran, urges countries to declare Revolutionary Guard a terror group

FOX News

Rep. Randy Weber, R-Texas, joined'Fox & Friends First' to discuss the latest on what's expected with Israel's response as House lawmakers are expected to weigh several foreign aid bills this week. Israel's foreign minister on Tuesday said he is calling for additional sanctions on Iran in response to the missile and drone attack that targeted Israel over the weekend. Foreign Minister Israel Katz said he sent letters to 32 countries urging them to impose new sanctions on the Iranian missile project and declare the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a terrorist organization. "Alongside the military response to the firing of the missiles and the UAVs, I am leading a diplomatic offensive against Iran," Katz posted on X. He said additional sanctions would "stop and weaken Iran."