Many important problems require modelling large-scale spatio-temporal datasets, with one prevalent example being weather forecasting. Recently, transformer-based approaches have shown great promise in a range of weather forecasting problems. However, these have mostly focused on gridded data sources, neglecting the wealth of unstructured, off-the-grid data from observational measurements such as those at weather stations. A promising family of models suitable for such tasks are neural processes (NPs), notably the family of transformer neural processes (TNPs). Although TNPs have shown promise on small spatio-temporal datasets, they are unable to scale to the quantities of data used by state-of-the-art weather and climate models. This limitation stems from their lack of efficient attention mechanisms. We address this shortcoming through the introduction of gridded pseudo-token TNPs which employ specialised encoders and decoders to handle unstructured observations and utilise a processor containing gridded pseudo-tokens that leverage efficient attention mechanisms. Our method consistently outperforms a range of strong baselines on various synthetic and real-world regression tasks involving large-scale data, while maintaining competitive computational efficiency. The real-life experiments are performed on weather data, demonstrating the potential of our approach to bring performance and computational benefits when applied at scale in a weather modelling pipeline.

Learning predictive models from observations using deep neural networks (DNNs) is a promising new approach to many real-world planning and control problems. However, common DNNs are too unstructured for effective planning, and current control methods typically rely on extensive sampling or local gradient descent. In this paper, we propose a new framework for integrated model learning and predictive control that is amenable to efficient optimization algorithms. Specifically, we start with a ReLU neural model of the system dynamics and, with minimal losses in prediction accuracy, we gradually sparsify it by removing redundant neurons. This discrete sparsification process is approximated as a continuous problem, enabling an end-to-end optimization of both the model architecture and the weight parameters.

We study predictive control in a setting where the dynamics are time-varying and linear, and the costs are time-varying and well-conditioned. At each time step, the controller receives the exact predictions of costs, dynamics, and disturbances for the future k time steps. We show that when the prediction window k is sufficiently large, predictive control is input-to-state stable and achieves a dynamic regret of O(\lambda k T), where \lambda 1 is a positive constant. This is the first dynamic regret bound on the predictive control of linear time-varying systems. We also show a variation of predictive control obtains the first competitive bound for the control of linear time-varying systems: 1 O(\lambda k) .

A vital and rapidly growing application, remote sensing offers vast yet sparsely labeled, spatially aligned multimodal data; this makes self-supervised learning algorithms invaluable. We present CROMA: a framework that combines contrastive and reconstruction self-supervised objectives to learn rich unimodal and multimodal representations. Our method separately encodes masked-out multispectral optical and synthetic aperture radar samples--aligned in space and time--and performs cross-modal contrastive learning. Another encoder fuses these sensors, producing joint multimodal encodings that are used to predict the masked patches via a lightweight decoder. We show that these objectives are complementary when leveraged on spatially aligned multimodal data.

Consider the following instance of the Offline Meta Reinforcement Learning (OMRL) problem: given the complete training logs of N conventional RL agents, trained on N different tasks, design a meta-agent that can quickly maximize reward in a new, unseen task from the same task distribution. In particular, while each conventional RL agent explored and exploited its own different task, the meta-agent must identify regularities in the data that lead to effective exploration/exploitation in the unseen task. Here, we take a Bayesian RL (BRL) view, and seek to learn a Bayes-optimal policy from the offline data. Building on the recent VariBAD BRL approach, we develop an off-policy BRL method that learns to plan an exploration strategy based on an adaptive neural belief estimate. However, learning to infer such a belief from offline data brings a new identifiability issue we term MDP ambiguity.

Sampling-based motion planning is a popular approach in robotics for finding paths in continuous configuration spaces. Checking collision with obstacles is the major computational bottleneck in this process. We propose new learning-based methods for reducing collision checking to accelerate motion planning by training graph neural networks (GNNs) that perform path exploration and path smoothing. Given random geometric graphs (RGGs) generated from batch sampling, the path exploration component iteratively predicts collision-free edges to prioritize their exploration. The path smoothing component then optimizes paths obtained from the exploration stage.

We consider the problem of robust and adaptive model predictive control (MPC) of a linear system, with unknown parameters that are learned along the way (adaptive), in a critical setting where failures must be prevented (robust). This problem has been studied from different perspectives by different communities. However, the existing theory deals only with the case of quadratic costs (the LQ problem), which limits applications to stabilisation and tracking tasks only. In order to handle more general (non-convex) costs that naturally arise in many practical problems, we carefully select and bring together several tools from different communities, namely non-asymptotic linear regression, recent results in interval prediction, and tree-based planning. Combining and adapting the theoretical guarantees at each layer is non trivial, and we provide the first end-to-end suboptimality analysis for this setting. Interestingly, our analysis naturally adapts to handle many models and combines with a data-driven robust model selection strategy, which enables to relax the modelling assumptions.

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Unsupervised mixture learning (UML) aims at identifying linearly or nonlinearly mixed latent components in a blind manner. UML is known to be challenging: Even learning linear mixtures requires highly nontrivial analytical tools, e.g., independent component analysis or nonnegative matrix factorization. In this work, the post-nonlinear (PNL) mixture model---where {\it unknown} element-wise nonlinear functions are imposed onto a linear mixture---is revisited. The PNL model is widely employed in different fields ranging from brain signal classification, speech separation, remote sensing, to causal discovery. To identify and remove the unknown nonlinear functions, existing works often assume different properties on the latent components (e.g., statistical independence or probability-simplex structures).

Nonetheless, the inherent variability of solar irradiance poses a significant challenge for seamlessly integrating solar power into the electrical grid. While the majority of prior research has centered on employing purely time series-based methodologies for solar forecasting, only a limited number of studies have taken into account factors such as cloud cover or the surrounding physical context.In this paper, we put forth a deep learning architecture designed to harness spatio-temporal context using satellite data, to attain highly accurate day-ahead time-series forecasting for any given station, with a particular emphasis on forecasting Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI). We also suggest a methodology to extract a distribution for each time step prediction, which can serve as a very valuable measure of uncertainty attached to the forecast. When evaluating models, we propose a testing scheme in which we separate particularly difficult examples from easy ones, in order to capture the model performances in crucial situations, which in the case of this study are the days suffering from varying cloudy conditions. Furthermore, we present a new multi-modal dataset gathering satellite imagery over a large zone and time series for solar irradiance and other related physical variables from multiple geographically diverse solar stations.