Energy
Predicting and Publishing Accurate Imbalance Prices Using Monte Carlo Tree Search
Pavirani, Fabio, Van Gompel, Jonas, Madahi, Seyed Soroush Karimi, Claessens, Bert, Develder, Chris
The growing reliance on renewable energy sources, particularly solar and wind, has introduced challenges due to their uncontrollable production. This complicates maintaining the electrical grid balance, prompting some transmission system operators in Western Europe to implement imbalance tariffs that penalize unsustainable power deviations. These tariffs create an implicit demand response framework to mitigate grid instability. Yet, several challenges limit active participation. In Belgium, for example, imbalance prices are only calculated at the end of each 15-minute settlement period, creating high risk due to price uncertainty. This risk is further amplified by the inherent volatility of imbalance prices, discouraging participation. Although transmission system operators provide minute-based price predictions, the system imbalance volatility makes accurate price predictions challenging to obtain and requires sophisticated techniques. Moreover, publishing price estimates can prompt participants to adjust their schedules, potentially affecting the system balance and the final price, adding further complexity. To address these challenges, we propose a Monte Carlo Tree Search method that publishes accurate imbalance prices while accounting for potential response actions. Our approach models the system dynamics using a neural network forecaster and a cluster of virtual batteries controlled by reinforcement learning agents. Compared to Belgium's current publication method, our technique improves price accuracy by 20.4% under ideal conditions and by 12.8% in more realistic scenarios. This research addresses an unexplored, yet crucial problem, positioning this paper as a pioneering work in analyzing the potential of more advanced imbalance price publishing techniques.
Continuous-Time State Estimation Methods in Robotics: A Survey
Talbot, William, Nubert, Julian, Tuna, Turcan, Cadena, Cesar, Dรผmbgen, Frederike, Tordesillas, Jesus, Barfoot, Timothy D., Hutter, Marco
Accurate, efficient, and robust state estimation is more important than ever in robotics as the variety of platforms and complexity of tasks continue to grow. Historically, discrete-time filters and smoothers have been the dominant approach, in which the estimated variables are states at discrete sample times. The paradigm of continuous-time state estimation proposes an alternative strategy by estimating variables that express the state as a continuous function of time, which can be evaluated at any query time. Not only can this benefit downstream tasks such as planning and control, but it also significantly increases estimator performance and flexibility, as well as reduces sensor preprocessing and interfacing complexity. Despite this, continuous-time methods remain underutilized, potentially because they are less well-known within robotics. To remedy this, this work presents a unifying formulation of these methods and the most exhaustive literature review to date, systematically categorizing prior work by methodology, application, state variables, historical context, and theoretical contribution to the field. By surveying splines and Gaussian processes together and contextualizing works from other research domains, this work identifies and analyzes open problems in continuous-time state estimation and suggests new research directions.
Confidence Calibration of Classifiers with Many Classes
LeCoz, Adrien, Herbin, Stรฉphane, Adjed, Faouzi
For classification models based on neural networks, the maximum predicted class probability is often used as a confidence score. This score rarely predicts well the probability of making a correct prediction and requires a post-processing calibration step. However, many confidence calibration methods fail for problems with many classes. To address this issue, we transform the problem of calibrating a multiclass classifier into calibrating a single surrogate binary classifier. This approach allows for more efficient use of standard calibration methods. We evaluate our approach on numerous neural networks used for image or text classification and show that it significantly enhances existing calibration methods.
Energy-Aware Dynamic Neural Inference
Bullo, Marcello, Jardak, Seifallah, Carnelli, Pietro, Gรผndรผz, Deniz
This work has been submitted to the IEEE for possible publication. Abstract The growing demand for intelligent applications beyond the network edge, coupled with the need for sustainable operation, are driving the seamless integration of deep learning algorithms into energy-limited, and even energy-harvesting end-devices. However, the stochastic nature of ambient energy sources often results in insufficient harvesting rates, failing to meet the energy requirements for inference and causing significant performance degradation in energy-agnostic systems. To address this problem, we consider an on-device adaptive inference system equipped with an energy-harvester and finite-capacity energy storage. We then allow the device to reduce the run-time execution cost on-demand, by either switching between differently-sized neural networks, referred to as multi-model selection (MMS), or by enabling earlier predictions at intermediate layers, called early exiting (EE). The model to be employed, or the exit point is then dynamically chosen based on the energy storage and harvesting process states. We also study the efficacy of integrating the prediction confidence into the decision-making process. We derive a principled policy with theoretical guarantees for confidence-aware and -agnostic controllers. Moreover, in multi-exit networks, we study the advantages of taking decisions incrementally, exit-by-exit, by designing a lightweight reinforcement learning-based controller. Experimental results show that, as the rate of the ambient energy increases, energy-and confidence-aware control schemes show approximately 5% improvement in accuracy compared to their energy-aware confidence-agnostic counterparts. Incremental approaches achieve even higher accuracy, particularly when the energy storage capacity is limited relative to the energy consumption of the inference model. HE widespread presence of interconnected devices, driven by pervasive and ubiquitous computing paradigms, continuously generates an unprecedented volume of data.
SeafloorAI: A Large-scale Vision-Language Dataset for Seafloor Geological Survey
Nguyen, Kien X., Qiao, Fengchun, Trembanis, Arthur, Peng, Xi
A major obstacle to the advancements of machine learning models in marine science, particularly in sonar imagery analysis, is the scarcity of AI-ready datasets. While there have been efforts to make AI-ready sonar image dataset publicly available, they suffer from limitations in terms of environment setting and scale. To bridge this gap, we introduce SeafloorAI, the first extensive AI-ready datasets for seafloor mapping across 5 geological layers that is curated in collaboration with marine scientists. We further extend the dataset to SeafloorGenAI by incorporating the language component in order to facilitate the development of both vision- and language-capable machine learning models for sonar imagery. The dataset consists of 62 geo-distributed data surveys spanning 17,300 square kilometers, with 696K sonar images, 827K annotated segmentation masks, 696K detailed language descriptions and approximately 7M question-answer pairs. By making our data processing source code publicly available, we aim to engage the marine science community to enrich the data pool and inspire the machine learning community to develop more robust models. This collaborative approach will enhance the capabilities and applications of our datasets within both fields.
Diverging Preferences: When do Annotators Disagree and do Models Know?
Zhang, Michael JQ, Wang, Zhilin, Hwang, Jena D., Dong, Yi, Delalleau, Olivier, Choi, Yejin, Choi, Eunsol, Ren, Xiang, Pyatkin, Valentina
We examine diverging preferences in human-labeled preference datasets. We develop a taxonomy of disagreement sources spanning 10 categories across four high-level classes--task underspecification, response style, refusals, and annotation errors. We find that the majority of disagreements are in opposition with standard reward modeling approaches, which are designed with the assumption that annotator disagreement is noise. We then explore how these findings impact two areas of LLM development: reward modeling and evaluation. In our experiments, we demonstrate how standard reward modeling methods, like the Bradley-Terry model, fail to differentiate whether a given preference judgment is the result of unanimous agreement among annotators or the majority opinion among diverging user preferences. We also find that these tendencies are also echoed by popular LLM-as-Judge evaluation methods, which consistently identify a winning response in cases of diverging preferences. These findings highlight remaining challenges in LLM evaluations, which are greatly influenced by divisive features like response style, and in developing pluralistically aligned LLMs. To address these issues, we develop methods for identifying diverging preferences to mitigate their influence on evaluation and training. As large language models (LLMs) continue to rise in prominence and to serve millions of people on a daily basis, there is an increasing need to ensure that systems are pluralistically aligned (Sorensen et al., 2024). Learning from human preferences has emerged as the standard method for adapting LLMs to facilitate user-assistant interactions with much success. Despite these advances, however, the field continues to struggle with the challenge of handing diverging preferences, where users disagree on the ideal response to a prompt. Prior works on developing pluralistically aligned LLMs have focused on the development of synthetic preference datasets, where disagreements are simulated based on author-defined features and frequencies (Poddar et al., 2024; Chen et al., 2024). In this work, we take a step back to ask the foundational question when and why do human annotators disagree in their preferences? To make this research possible, we introduce MultiPref-Disagreements and HelpSteer2-Disagreements.
Combinatorial Client-Master Multiagent Deep Reinforcement Learning for Task Offloading in Mobile Edge Computing
Gebrekidan, Tesfay Zemuy, Stein, Sebastian, Norman, Timothy J.
Recently, there has been an explosion of mobile applications that perform computationally intensive tasks such as video streaming, data mining, virtual reality, augmented reality, image processing, video processing, face recognition, and online gaming. However, user devices (UDs), such as tablets and smartphones, have a limited ability to perform the computation needs of the tasks. Mobile edge computing (MEC) has emerged as a promising technology to meet the increasing computing demands of UDs. Task offloading in MEC is a strategy that meets the demands of UDs by distributing tasks between UDs and MEC servers. Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) is gaining attention in task-offloading problems because it can adapt to dynamic changes and minimize online computational complexity. However, the various types of continuous and discrete resource constraints on UDs and MEC servers pose challenges to the design of an efficient DRL-based task-offloading strategy. Existing DRL-based task-offloading algorithms focus on the constraints of the UDs, assuming the availability of enough storage resources on the server. Moreover, existing multiagent DRL (MADRL)--based task-offloading algorithms are homogeneous agents and consider homogeneous constraints as a penalty in their reward function. We proposed a novel combinatorial client-master MADRL (CCM\_MADRL) algorithm for task offloading in MEC (CCM\_MADRL\_MEC) that enables UDs to decide their resource requirements and the server to make a combinatorial decision based on the requirements of the UDs. CCM\_MADRL\_MEC is the first MADRL in task offloading to consider server storage capacity in addition to the constraints in the UDs. By taking advantage of the combinatorial action selection, CCM\_MADRL\_MEC has shown superior convergence over existing MADDPG and heuristic algorithms.
GUIDE-VAE: Advancing Data Generation with User Information and Pattern Dictionaries
Bรถlat, Kutay, Tindemans, Simon
Generative modelling of multi-user datasets has become prominent in science and engineering. Generating a data point for a given user requires employing user information, and conventional generative models, including variational autoencoders (VAEs), often ignore that. This paper introduces GUIDE-VAE, a novel conditional generative model that leverages user embeddings to generate user-guided data. By allowing the model to benefit from shared patterns across users, GUIDE-VAE enhances performance in multi-user settings, even under significant data imbalance. In addition to integrating user information, GUIDE-VAE incorporates a pattern dictionary-based covariance composition (PDCC) to improve the realism of generated samples by capturing complex feature dependencies. While user embeddings drive performance gains, PDCC addresses common issues such as noise and over-smoothing typically seen in VAEs. The proposed GUIDE-VAE was evaluated on a multi-user smart meter dataset characterized by substantial data imbalance across users. Quantitative results show that GUIDE-VAE performs effectively in both synthetic data generation and missing record imputation tasks, while qualitative evaluations reveal that GUIDE-VAE produces more plausible and less noisy data. These results establish GUIDE-VAE as a promising tool for controlled, realistic data generation in multi-user datasets, with potential applications across various domains requiring user-informed modelling.
Harnessing AI for a climate-resilient Africa: An interview with Amal Nammouchi, co-founder of AfriClimate AI
AfriClimate AI is a grassroots community focused on leveraging artificial intelligence to tackle climate challenges in Africa. We spoke to Amal Nammouchi, one of the co-founders of AfriClimate AI, about the inspiration behind the initiative, some of their activities and projects, and plans for the future. Everything started last year at the Deep Learning Indaba in Ghana. The Deep Learning Indaba is the largest African AI community gathering and it happens once a year. The spark for AfriClimate AI came from a workshop with the work of one of our co-founders Rendani Mbuvha.
Britain's green energy pledge 'credible' if planning fixed, says system operator
A plan to create a clean electricity system by 2030 promised by Labour before the election is "immensely challenging" but still "credible" if ministers take urgent action to fix Britain's sluggish planning system, the energy system operator has said. Britain could become a net exporter of green electricity by the end of the decade at no extra costs to the energy system under the plans and bills may even fall if ministers make the right policy changes, according to the operator. The newly formed National Energy System Operator (Neso) put forward the conclusions as part of its official advice to new ministers on how to reach Labour election pledge to decarbonise the power system by 2030. Fintan Slye, the chief executive of Neso, said: "There's no doubt that the challenges ahead on the journey to delivering clean power are great. However, if the scale of those challenges is matched with the bold, sustained actions that are outlined in this report, the benefits delivered could be even greater."