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Capturing Extreme Events in Turbulence using an Extreme Variational Autoencoder (xVAE)

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Turbulent flow fields are characterized by extreme events that are statistically intermittent and carry a significant amount of energy and physical importance. To emulate these flows, we introduce the extreme variational Autoencoder (xVAE), which embeds a max-infinitely divisible process with heavy-tailed distributions into a standard VAE framework, enabling accurate modeling of extreme events. xVAEs are neural network models that reduce system dimensionality by learning non-linear latent representations of data. We demonstrate the effectiveness of xVAE in large-eddy simulation data of wildland fire plumes, where intense heat release and complex plume-atmosphere interactions generate extreme turbulence. Comparisons with the commonly used Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) modes show that xVAE is more robust in capturing extreme values and provides a powerful uncertainty quantification framework using variational Bayes. Additionally, xVAE enables analysis of the so-called copulas of fields to assess risks associated with rare events while rigorously accounting for uncertainty, such as simultaneous exceedances of high thresholds across multiple locations. The proposed approach provides a new direction for studying realistic turbulent flows, such as high-speed aerodynamics, space propulsion, and atmospheric and oceanic systems that are characterized by extreme events.


Distinguishing Cause from Effect with Causal Velocity Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bivariate structural causal models (SCM) are often used to infer causal direction by examining their goodness-of-fit under restricted model classes. In this paper, we describe a parametrization of bivariate SCMs in terms of a causal velocity by viewing the cause variable as time in a dynamical system. The velocity implicitly defines counterfactual curves via the solution of initial value problems where the observation specifies the initial condition. Using tools from measure transport, we obtain a unique correspondence between SCMs and the score function of the generated distribution via its causal velocity. Based on this, we derive an objective function that directly regresses the velocity against the score function, the latter of which can be estimated non-parametrically from observational data. We use this to develop a method for bivariate causal discovery that extends beyond known model classes such as additive or location scale noise, and that requires no assumptions on the noise distributions. When the score is estimated well, the objective is also useful for detecting model non-identifiability and misspecification. We present positive results in simulation and benchmark experiments where many existing methods fail, and perform ablation studies to examine the method's sensitivity to accurate score estimation.


Estimating Voltage Drop: Models, Features and Data Representation Towards a Neural Surrogate

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--Accurate estimation of voltage drop (IR drop) in modern Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) is highly time and resource demanding, due to the growing complexity and the transistor density in recent technology nodes. To mitigate this challenge, we investigate how Machine Learning (ML) techniques, including Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and Graph Neural Network (GNN) can aid in reducing the computational effort and implicitly the time required to estimate the IR drop in Integrated Circuits (ICs). ML algorithms, on the other hand, are explored as an alternative solution to offer quick and precise IR drop estimation, but in considerably less time. This study illustrates the effectiveness of ML algorithms in precisely estimating IR drop and optimizing ASIC sign-off. Thus, a new round of simulations is required for verification. This process is a standard routine in every ASIC design and manufacturing process, and it is defined as the "sign-off" REDICTION of IR drop is an important problem faced today often by ASIC designers. As the current (I) flows With the transition to larger density integration of transistors, through the Power Distribution Network (PDN), a part of the number of connection layers and interconnections the applied voltage inherently drops across the current path, have increased exponentially over the last decades, driven which is, in simple terms, the definition of IR drop. As a result, while commercial results in voltage drop, or to the grounding (GND), which tools are trying to keep up with the up-scaling demand, results in a ground bounce.


MoFM: A Large-Scale Human Motion Foundation Model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

AFoundation Models (FM) have increasingly drawn the attention of researchers due to their scalability and generalization across diverse tasks. Inspired by the success of FMs and the principles that have driven advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs), we introduce MoFM as a novel Motion Foundation Model. MoFM is designed for the semantic understanding of complex human motions in both time and space. To facilitate large-scale training, MotionBook, a comprehensive human motion dictionary of discretized motions is designed and employed. MotionBook utilizes Thermal Cubes to capture spatio-temporal motion heatmaps, applying principles from discrete variational models to encode human movements into discrete units for a more efficient and scalable representation. MoFM, trained on a large corpus of motion data, provides a foundational backbone adaptable to diverse downstream tasks, supporting paradigms such as one-shot, unsupervised, and supervised tasks. This versatility makes MoFM well-suited for a wide range of motion-based applications.


Deep Learning Models for Physical Layer Communications

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The increased availability of data and computing resources has enabled researchers to successfully adopt machine learning (ML) techniques and make significant contributions in several engineering areas. ML and in particular deep learning (DL) algorithms have shown to perform better in tasks where a physical bottom-up description of the phenomenon is lacking and/or is mathematically intractable. Indeed, they take advantage of the observations of natural phenomena to automatically acquire knowledge and learn internal relations. Despite the historical model-based mindset, communications engineering recently started shifting the focus towards top-down data-driven learning models, especially in domains such as channel modeling and physical layer design, where in most of the cases no general optimal strategies are known. In this thesis, we aim at solving some fundamental open challenges in physical layer communications exploiting new DL paradigms. In particular, we mathematically formulate, under ML terms, classic problems such as channel capacity and optimal coding-decoding schemes, for any arbitrary communication medium. We design and develop the architecture, algorithm and code necessary to train the equivalent DL model, and finally, we propose novel solutions to long-standing problems in the field.


Federated Learning for Anomaly Detection in Energy Consumption Data: Assessing the Vulnerability to Adversarial Attacks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Anomaly detection is crucial in the energy sector to identify irregular patterns indicating equipment failures, energy theft, or other issues. Machine learning techniques for anomaly detection have achieved great success, but are typically centralized, involving sharing local data with a central server which raises privacy and security concerns. Federated Learning (FL) has been gaining popularity as it enables distributed learning without sharing local data. However, FL depends on neural networks, which are vulnerable to adversarial attacks that manipulate data, leading models to make erroneous predictions. While adversarial attacks have been explored in the image domain, they remain largely unexplored in time series problems, especially in the energy domain. Moreover, the effect of adversarial attacks in the FL setting is also mostly unknown. This paper assesses the vulnerability of FL-based anomaly detection in energy data to adversarial attacks. Specifically, two state-of-the-art models, Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Transformers, are used to detect anomalies in an FL setting, and two white-box attack methods, Fast Gradient Sign Method (FGSM) and Projected Gradient Descent (PGD), are employed to perturb the data. The results show that FL is more sensitive to PGD attacks than to FGSM attacks, attributed to PGD's iterative nature, resulting in an accuracy drop of over 10% even with naive, weaker attacks. Moreover, FL is more affected by these attacks than centralized learning, highlighting the need for defense mechanisms in FL.


Demonstrating CavePI: Autonomous Exploration of Underwater Caves by Semantic Guidance

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Enabling autonomous robots to safely and efficiently navigate, explore, and map underwater caves is of significant importance to water resource management, hydrogeology, archaeology, and marine robotics. In this work, we demonstrate the system design and algorithmic integration of a visual servoing framework for semantically guided autonomous underwater cave exploration. We present the hardware and edge-AI design considerations to deploy this framework on a novel AUV (Autonomous Underwater Vehicle) named CavePI. The guided navigation is driven by a computationally light yet robust deep visual perception module, delivering a rich semantic understanding of the environment. Subsequently, a robust control mechanism enables CavePI to track the semantic guides and navigate within complex cave structures. We evaluate the system through field experiments in natural underwater caves and spring-water sites and further validate its ROS (Robot Operating System)-based digital twin in a simulation environment. Our results highlight how these integrated design choices facilitate reliable navigation under feature-deprived, GPS-denied, and low-visibility conditions.


Global Ease of Living Index: a machine learning framework for longitudinal analysis of major economies

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The drastic changes in the global economy, geopolitical conditions, and disruptions such as the COVID-19 pandemic have impacted the cost of living and quality of life. It is important to understand the long-term nature of the cost of living and quality of life in major economies. A transparent and comprehensive living index must include multiple dimensions of living conditions. In this study, we present an approach to quantifying the quality of life through the Global Ease of Living Index that combines various socio-economic and infrastructural factors into a single composite score. Our index utilises economic indicators that define living standards, which could help in targeted interventions to improve specific areas. We present a machine learning framework for addressing the problem of missing data for some of the economic indicators for specific countries. We then curate and update the data and use a dimensionality reduction approach (principal component analysis) to create the Ease of Living Index for major economies since 1970. Our work significantly adds to the literature by offering a practical tool for policymakers to identify areas needing improvement, such as healthcare systems, employment opportunities, and public safety. Our approach with open data and code can be easily reproduced and applied to various contexts. This transparency and accessibility make our work a valuable resource for ongoing research and policy development in quality-of-life assessment.


Data-driven Modality Fusion: An AI-enabled Framework for Large-Scale Sensor Network Management

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The development and operation of smart cities relyheavily on large-scale Internet-of-Things (IoT) networks and sensor infrastructures that continuously monitor various aspects of urban environments. These networks generate vast amounts of data, posing challenges related to bandwidth usage, energy consumption, and system scalability. This paper introduces a novel sensing paradigm called Data-driven Modality Fusion (DMF), designed to enhance the efficiency of smart city IoT network management. By leveraging correlations between timeseries data from different sensing modalities, the proposed DMF approach reduces the number of physical sensors required for monitoring, thereby minimizing energy expenditure, communication bandwidth, and overall deployment costs. The framework relocates computational complexity from the edge devices to the core, ensuring that resource-constrained IoT devices are not burdened with intensive processing tasks. DMF is validated using data from a real-world IoT deployment in Madrid, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed system in accurately estimating traffic, environmental, and pollution metrics from a reduced set of sensors. The proposed solution offers a scalable, efficient mechanism for managing urban IoT networks, while addressing issues of sensor failure and privacy concerns.


Seasonal Station-Keeping of Short Duration High Altitude Balloons using Deep Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Station-Keeping short-duration high-altitude balloons (HABs) in a region of interest is a challenging path-planning problem due to partially observable, complex, and dynamic wind flows. Deep reinforcement learning is a popular strategy for solving the station-keeping problem. A custom simulation environment was developed to train and evaluate Deep Q-Learning (DQN) for short-duration HAB agents in the simulation. To train the agents on realistic winds, synthetic wind forecasts were generated from aggregated historical radiosonde data to apply horizontal kinematics to simulated agents. The synthetic forecasts were closely correlated with ECWMF ERA5 Reanalysis forecasts, providing a realistic simulated wind field and seasonal and altitudinal variances between the wind models. DQN HAB agents were then trained and evaluated across different seasonal months. To highlight differences and trends in months with vastly different wind fields, a Forecast Score algorithm was introduced to independently classify forecasts based on wind diversity, and trends between station-keeping success and the Forecast Score were evaluated across all seasons.