Optimal transport provides an inherently geometric and highly structured framework for studying spaces of probability measures, supplying a rich theoretical toolkit for contemporary statistics, machine learning, and generative modelling. In applications, however, the measures of interest are almost never known precisely, calling for a theory of optimal transport that accounts for statistical uncertainty. We construct such a framework, lifting the classical theory to the setting of random probability measures. We introduce the $L^2$ over Wasserstein space establishing that it inherits the formal Riemannian structure of the Wasserstein space by characterising distances and geodesic geometry. The structure induces random flows with Wasserstein gradient flow sample paths, making it the natural extension of the Wasserstein space which allows for random gradient flow dynamics. We ensemble statistical convergence results of the optimal transport machinery using the empirical measure within the $L^2$ over Wasserstein framework. Moreover, in the setting of Bayesian non-parametrics, we refine Schwartz's consistency theorem to the Wasserstein topology and deduce posterior convergence of the same machinery in the $L^2$ over Wasserstein space. We demonstrate that the growing theory of random token sampling for transformer models using self-attention flow paths can be embedded into the our framework. The results provide a unified treatment of random optimal transport and its consequences for principled inference and generative modelling under the statistical uncertainty of random sampling.

Earthquake forecasting is a critical task for natural risk management, infrastructure resilience planning, and emergency response operations. For Central Asia, and the Tian Shan mountain system in particular, this problem carries heightened importance due to high tectonic activity, complex geodynamics, and pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity of seismic processes. In the applied setting, the goal is not a deterministic forecast of individual events, but a macroscopic forecast of seismicity intensity: estimating the expected number of earthquakes with magnitude M 3.0 on a spatial grid at a weekly horizon. Historically, count data forecasting in fixed spatiotemporal cells has been formulated within the Poisson framework. However, its key assumption--equality of the conditional mean and conditional variance--is systematically violated in real seismological data. Earthquakes exhibit pronounced clustering associated with swarm activity, foreshock-aftershock sequences, and episodes of anomalous activity, resulting in overdispersion in which the variance substantially exceeds the mean. Under these conditions, uncritical application of the Poisson distribution leads to biased uncertainty estimates and, consequently, to underestimation of the risk of extreme scenarios. Despite the widespread adoption of machine learning methods in seismological problems, a substantial portion of existing work remains methodologically vulnerable. On one hand, several approaches apply continuous regression loss functions and metrics (e.g., MSE), ignoring the

We propose non-parametric estimators for the average run length (ARL) and average detection delay (ADD) in quickest changepoint detection (QCD) under finite and irregular sequence lengths. Although ARL and ADD are widely used as optimality criteria in theoretical and simulation studies, their application to real-world datasets is hindered by limited and irregular sequence lengths. To address this issue, we propose non-parametric estimators for the ARL and ADD, termed KM-ARL and KM-ADD, by drawing an analogy between QCD and survival analysis to model detection probabilities under sequence truncation. We derive estimation bias bounds and prove that they are asymptotically unbiased unless extrapolation is required. Experiments on simulated and real-world datasets demonstrate their practical utility, enhancing robustness against limited and irregular sequence lengths, improving interpretability, and facilitating empirical, intuitive model selection. Our Python code is provided at https://github.com/TaikiMiyagawa/Kaplan-Meier-Average-Run-Length, offering ready-to-use implementations for practitioners.

The construction of models from data is a significant contributor to the energetic costs of computation. Because of this, understanding how foundational thermodynamic bounds apply to modeling algorithms will be increasingly important. Here, we study the thermodynamic costs of a basic and fundamental modeling algorithm: simple linear regression. Following Landauer, we approximate the thermodynamic lower bound on irreversibly performing both exact linear regression and linear regression via stochastic gradient descent as implemented on floating-point numbers. From this, we derive energycost aware scaling laws for the optimal dataset size for training a linear regression model given a generalization error dependent demand for inference. Additionally, we discuss a method to lower bound the entropy production from the mismatch cost for algorithms with continuous input variables.

Diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in generating samples from unknown data distributions. Most popular stochastic differential equation-based diffusion models perturb the target distribution by adding Gaussian noise, transforming it into a simple prior, and then use denoising score matching, a consequence of Tweedie's formula, to learn the score function and generate clean samples from noise. However, non-Gaussian diffusion models with state-dependent diffusion coefficient have been largely underexplored, as have the corresponding Tweedie's formulae. In this work, we extend Tweedie's formula to important non-Gaussian processes, including geometric Brownian motion (GBM), squared Bessel (BESQ) processes, and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) processes, thereby yielding the corresponding denoising score-matching objectives. We then apply the derived formulae to image and financial time series generation using GBM-and CIR-based diffusion models, and to empirical Bayes estimation under the BESQ setting. The reported experimental results demonstrate the potential of non-Gaussian models. Key words: Bessel processes, denoising score matching, diffusion models, empirical Bayes, financial time series, geometric Brownian motion, Tweedie's formula.

We introduce FLUXtrapolation, a benchmark for extrapolating ecosystem fluxes under progressively harder distribution shifts. Ecosystem fluxes are central to understanding the carbon, water, and energy cycles, yet they can only be measured directly at sparsely located measurement towers. Producing global flux estimates therefore requires training models on observed sites using globally available covariates and predicting in unobserved regions, that is, upscaling. Flux upscaling is a challenging domain generalization problem that is affected by a shift in covariate distribution across climates, ecosystem types, and environmental conditions, as well as by conditional shift: important drivers remain unobserved at global scale. We provide a quantitative analysis of both these shifts in $P_X$ and $P_{Y\mid X}$. FLUXtrapolation is designed based on domain expertise on flux upscaling: it defines temporal, spatial, and temperature-based extrapolation scenarios and evaluates performance across held-out domains, temporal aggregations, and tail errors. In a pilot study, we find that baselines perform similarly under median hourly RMSE, but separate under the proposed tail-focused and multi-scale evaluation. FLUXtrapolation therefore poses a realistic and thus relevant challenge for machine learning methods under distribution shift; at the same time, progress on this benchmark would directly support the scientific goal of improving flux upscaling.

Standard generative models struggle with heavy-tailed data: Lipschitz architectures cannot produce power-law tails from Gaussian noise, and interpolating between heavy-tailed data and Gaussians is ill-posed. We propose a simple fix: apply the soft-log transform $ϕ(x) = \mathrm{sign}(x) \cdot \log(1 + |x|)$ coordinate-wise to data before training, then exponentiate samples after generation. A Hill diagnostic decides per-coordinate whether to transform, leaving light-tailed margins untouched at no added complexity. This compresses heavy tails into a range where standard flow matching succeeds, without heavy-tailed base distributions or architectural modifications. We provide theoretical intuition for why this works: the log-transform maps Pareto tails to exponentials, and the induced dynamics implement a form of tail annealing via power transformations. On a 144-configuration multivariate benchmark (3 copulas, $d$ up to 100, 4 tail indices), Log-FM dominates specialized baselines on $W_1$, CVaR$_{99}$, and extreme-quantile metrics, and is the only method with zero severe divergences across 2{,}880 runs.

Bayesian optimization (BO) selects evaluation points for expensive black-box objectives using Gaussian process (GP) predictive distributions. Kernel choice and hyperparameter selection can lead to miscalibrated predictive distributions and an inappropriate exploration-exploitation trade-off. For minimization, sampling criteria such as expected improvement (EI) depend on the predictive distribution below the current best value, so lower-tail miscalibration directly affects the sampling decision. This article studies goal-oriented calibration of GP predictive distributions below a low threshold $t$ in the noiseless setting, for standard GP models with hyperparameters selected by maximum likelihood. A framework for predictive reliability below $t$ is introduced, based on two notions of spatial calibration: occurrence calibration over the design space and thresholded $μ$-calibration on sublevel sets of the form $\{x\in\mathbb{X}, f(x)\le t\}$. Building on this framework, we propose tcGP, a post-hoc method that calibrates GP predictive distributions below~$t$, and we show that the resulting EI-based global optimization algorithm remains dense in the design space. Experiments on standard benchmarks show improved lower-tail calibration and BO performance relative to standard GP models and globally calibrated GP models.

Reactor no 3 lost off-site power for about 24 hours after the attack. Reactor no 3 lost off-site power for about 24 hours after the attack. A drone strike that cut off external power to a nuclear reactor in the United Arab Emirates this week has revived concerns over the safety of nuclear plants during wartime. Reactor no 3 at the Barakah nuclear plant lost vital off-site power for about 24 hours after the attack on Sunday, forcing it to rely on emergency diesel generators. The UAE's defence ministry said on Tuesday that three drones targeting the plant had originated from Iraqi territory, suggesting a pro-Iranian proxy group was most likely to have been behind the strike.

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