Energy
Times2D: Multi-Period Decomposition and Derivative Mapping for General Time Series Forecasting
Nematirad, Reza, Pahwa, Anil, Natarajan, Balasubramaniam
Time series forecasting is an important application in various domains such as energy management, traffic planning, financial markets, meteorology, and medicine. However, real-time series data often present intricate temporal variability and sharp fluctuations, which pose significant challenges for time series forecasting. Previous models that rely on 1D time series representations usually struggle with complex temporal variations. To address the limitations of 1D time series, this study introduces the Times2D method that transforms the 1D time series into 2D space. Times2D consists of three main parts: first, a Periodic Decomposition Block (PDB) that captures temporal variations within a period and between the same periods by converting the time series into a 2D tensor in the frequency domain. Second, the First and Second Derivative Heatmaps (FSDH) capture sharp changes and turning points, respectively. Finally, an Aggregation Forecasting Block (AFB) integrates the output tensors from PDB and FSDH for accurate forecasting. This 2D transformation enables the utilization of 2D convolutional operations to effectively capture long and short characteristics of the time series. Comprehensive experimental results across large-scale data in the literature demonstrate that the proposed Times2D model achieves state-of-the-art performance in both short-term and long-term forecasting. The code is available in this repository: https://github.com/Tims2D/Times2D.
Deep learning for state estimation of commercial sodium-ion batteries using partial charging profiles: validation with a multi-temperature ageing dataset
Liu, Jiapeng, Li, Lunte, Xiang, Jing, Xie, Laiyong, Wang, Yuhao, Ciucci, Francesco
Accurately predicting the state of health for sodium-ion batteries is crucial for managing battery modules, playing a vital role in ensuring operational safety. However, highly accurate models available thus far are rare due to a lack of aging data for sodium-ion batteries. In this study, we experimentally collected 53 single cells at four temperatures (0, 25, 35, and 45 {\deg}C), along with two battery modules in the lab. By utilizing the charging profiles, we were able to predict the SOC, capacity, and SOH simultaneously. This was achieved by designing a new framework that integrates the neural ordinary differential equation and 2D convolutional neural networks, using the partial charging profile as input. The charging profile is partitioned into segments, and each segment is fed into the network to output the SOC. For capacity and SOH prediction, we first aggregated the extracted features corresponding to segments from one cycle, after which an embedding block for temperature is concatenated for the final prediction. This novel approach eliminates the issue of multiple outputs for a single target. Our model demonstrated an $R^2$ accuracy of 0.998 for SOC and 0.997 for SOH across single cells at various temperatures. Furthermore, the trained model can be employed to predict single cells at temperatures outside the training set and battery modules with different capacity and current levels. The results presented here highlight the high accuracy of our model and its capability to predict multiple targets simultaneously using a partial charging profile.
Rec-R1: Bridging Generative Large Language Models and User-Centric Recommendation Systems via Reinforcement Learning
Lin, Jiacheng, Wang, Tian, Qian, Kun
We propose Rec-R1, a general reinforcement learning framework that bridges large language models (LLMs) with recommendation systems through closed-loop optimization. Unlike prompting and supervised fine-tuning (SFT), Rec-R1 directly optimizes LLM generation using feedback from a fixed black-box recommendation model, without relying on synthetic SFT data from proprietary models such as GPT-4o. This avoids the substantial cost and effort required for data distillation. To verify the effectiveness of Rec-R1, we evaluate it on two representative tasks: product search and sequential recommendation. Experimental results demonstrate that Rec-R1 not only consistently outperforms prompting- and SFT-based methods, but also achieves significant gains over strong discriminative baselines, even when used with simple retrievers such as BM25. Moreover, Rec-R1 preserves the general-purpose capabilities of the LLM, unlike SFT, which often impairs instruction-following and reasoning. These findings suggest Rec-R1 as a promising foundation for continual task-specific adaptation without catastrophic forgetting.
Nuclear Microreactor Control with Deep Reinforcement Learning
Tunkle, Leo, Abdulraheem, Kamal, Lin, Linyu, Radaideh, Majdi I.
The economic feasibility of nuclear microreactors will depend on minimizing operating costs through advancements in autonomous control, especially when these microreactors are operating alongside other types of energy systems (e.g., renewable energy). This study explores the application of deep reinforcement learning (RL) for real-time drum control in microreactors, exploring performance in regard to load-following scenarios. By leveraging a point kinetics model with thermal and xenon feedback, we first establish a baseline using a single-output RL agent, then compare it against a traditional proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller. This study demonstrates that RL controllers, including both single- and multi-agent RL (MARL) frameworks, can achieve similar or even superior load-following performance as traditional PID control across a range of load-following scenarios. In short transients, the RL agent was able to reduce the tracking error rate in comparison to PID. Over extended 300-minute load-following scenarios in which xenon feedback becomes a dominant factor, PID maintained better accuracy, but RL still remained within a 1% error margin despite being trained only on short-duration scenarios. This highlights RL's strong ability to generalize and extrapolate to longer, more complex transients, affording substantial reductions in training costs and reduced overfitting. Furthermore, when control was extended to multiple drums, MARL enabled independent drum control as well as maintained reactor symmetry constraints without sacrificing performance -- an objective that standard single-agent RL could not learn. We also found that, as increasing levels of Gaussian noise were added to the power measurements, the RL controllers were able to maintain lower error rates than PID, and to do so with less control effort.
MB-ORES: A Multi-Branch Object Reasoner for Visual Grounding in Remote Sensing
Radouane, Karim, Azzag, Hanane, lebbah, Mustapha
We propose a unified framework that integrates object detection (OD) and visual grounding (VG) for remote sensing (RS) imagery. To support conventional OD and establish an intuitive prior for VG task, we fine-tune an open-set object detector using referring expression data, framing it as a partially supervised OD task. In the first stage, we construct a graph representation of each image, comprising object queries, class embeddings, and proposal locations. Then, our task-aware architecture processes this graph to perform the VG task. The model consists of: (i) a multi-branch network that integrates spatial, visual, and categorical features to generate task-aware proposals, and (ii) an object reasoning network that assigns probabilities across proposals, followed by a soft selection mechanism for final referring object localization. Our model demonstrates superior performance on the OPT-RSVG and DIOR-RSVG datasets, achieving significant improvements over state-of-the-art methods while retaining classical OD capabilities. The code will be available in our repository: https://github.com/rd20karim/
DebFlow: Automating Agent Creation via Agent Debate
Su, Jinwei, Xia, Yinghui, Shi, Ronghua, Wang, Jianhui, Huang, Jianuo, Wang, Yijin, Shi, Tianyu, Jingsong, Yang, He, Lewei
Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong potential and impressive performance in automating the generation and optimization of workflows. However, existing approaches are marked by limited reasoning capabilities, high computational demands, and significant resource requirements. To address these issues, we propose DebFlow, a framework that employs a debate mechanism to optimize workflows and integrates reflexion to improve based on previous experiences. We evaluated our method across six benchmark datasets, including HotpotQA, MATH, and ALFWorld. Our approach achieved a 3\% average performance improvement over the latest baselines, demonstrating its effectiveness in diverse problem domains. In particular, during training, our framework reduces resource consumption by 37\% compared to the state-of-the-art baselines. Additionally, we performed ablation studies. Removing the Debate component resulted in a 4\% performance drop across two benchmark datasets, significantly greater than the 2\% drop observed when the Reflection component was removed. These findings strongly demonstrate the critical role of Debate in enhancing framework performance, while also highlighting the auxiliary contribution of reflexion to overall optimization.
DiffScale: Continuous Downscaling and Bias Correction of Subseasonal Wind Speed Forecasts using Diffusion Models
Springenberg, Maximilian, Otero, Noelia, Xue, Yuxin, Ma, Jackie
Renewable resources are strongly dependent on local and large-scale weather situations. Skillful subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts -- beyond two weeks and up to two months -- can offer significant socioeconomic advantages to the energy sector. This study aims to enhance wind speed predictions using a diffusion model with classifier-free guidance to downscale S2S forecasts of surface wind speed. We propose DiffScale, a diffusion model that super-resolves spatial information for continuous downscaling factors and lead times. Leveraging weather priors as guidance for the generative process of diffusion models, we adopt the perspective of conditional probabilities on sampling super-resolved S2S forecasts. We aim to directly estimate the density associated with the target S2S forecasts at different spatial resolutions and lead times without auto-regression or sequence prediction, resulting in an efficient and flexible model. Synthetic experiments were designed to super-resolve wind speed S2S forecasts from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) from a coarse resolution to a finer resolution of ERA5 reanalysis data, which serves as a high-resolution target. The innovative aspect of DiffScale lies in its flexibility to downscale arbitrary scaling factors, enabling it to generalize across various grid resolutions and lead times -without retraining the model- while correcting model errors, making it a versatile tool for improving S2S wind speed forecasts. We achieve a significant improvement in prediction quality, outperforming baselines up to week 3.
CITRAS: Covariate-Informed Transformer for Time Series Forecasting
Yamaguchi, Yosuke, Suemitsu, Issei, Wei, Wenpeng
Covariates play an indispensable role in practical time series forecasting, offering rich context from the past and sometimes extending into the future. However, their availability varies depending on the scenario, and situations often involve multiple target variables simultaneously. Moreover, the cross-variate dependencies between them are multi-granular, with some covariates having a short-term impact on target variables and others showing long-term correlations. This heterogeneity and the intricate dependencies arising in covariate-informed forecasting present significant challenges to existing deep models. To address these issues, we propose CITRAS, a patch-based Transformer that flexibly leverages multiple targets and covariates covering both the past and the future forecasting horizon. While preserving the strong autoregressive capabilities of the canonical Transformer, CITRAS introduces two novel mechanisms in patch-wise cross-variate attention: Key-Value (KV) Shift and Attention Score Smoothing. KV Shift seamlessly incorporates future known covariates into the forecasting of target variables based on their concurrent dependencies. Additionally, Attention Score Smoothing transforms locally accurate patch-wise cross-variate dependencies into global variate-level dependencies by smoothing the past series of attention scores. Experimentally, CITRAS achieves state-of-the-art performance in both covariate-informed and multivariate forecasting, demonstrating its versatile ability to leverage cross-variate dependency for improved forecasting accuracy.
Accelerating High-Efficiency Organic Photovoltaic Discovery via Pretrained Graph Neural Networks and Generative Reinforcement Learning
Qiu, Jiangjie, Lam, Hou Hei, Hu, Xiuyuan, Li, Wentao, Fu, Siwei, Zeng, Fankun, Zhang, Hao, Wang, Xiaonan
Organic photovoltaic (OPV) materials offer a promising avenue toward cost-effective solar energy utilization. However, optimizing donor-acceptor (D-A) combinations to achieve high power conversion efficiency (PCE) remains a significant challenge. In this work, we propose a framework that integrates large-scale pretraining of graph neural networks (GNNs) with a GPT-2 (Generative Pretrained Transformer 2)-based reinforcement learning (RL) strategy to design OPV molecules with potentially high PCE. This approach produces candidate molecules with predicted efficiencies approaching 21\%, although further experimental validation is required. Moreover, we conducted a preliminary fragment-level analysis to identify structural motifs recognized by the RL model that may contribute to enhanced PCE, thus providing design guidelines for the broader research community. To facilitate continued discovery, we are building the largest open-source OPV dataset to date, expected to include nearly 3,000 donor-acceptor pairs. Finally, we discuss plans to collaborate with experimental teams on synthesizing and characterizing AI-designed molecules, which will provide new data to refine and improve our predictive and generative models.
AutoML Algorithms for Online Generalized Additive Model Selection: Application to Electricity Demand Forecasting
Das, Keshav, Keisler, Julie, Brégère, Margaux, Durand, Amaury
Electricity demand forecasting is key to ensuring that supply meets demand lest the grid would blackout. Reliable short-term forecasts may be obtained by combining a Generalized Additive Models (GAM) with a State-Space model (Obst et al., 2021), leading to an adaptive (or online) model. A GAM is an over-parameterized linear model defined by a formula and a state-space model involves hyperparameters. Both the formula and adaptation parameters have to be fixed before model training and have a huge impact on the model's predictive performance. We propose optimizing them using the DRAGON package of Keisler (2025), originally designed for neural architecture search. This work generalizes it for automated online generalized additive model selection by defining an efficient modeling of the search space (namely, the space of the GAM formulae and adaptation parameters). Its application to short-term French electricity demand forecasting demonstrates the relevance of the approach