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Adversarial Observations in Weather Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

AI-based systems, such as Google's GenCast, have recently redefined the state of the art in weather forecasting, offering more accurate and timely predictions of both everyday weather and extreme events. While these systems are on the verge of replacing traditional meteorological methods, they also introduce new vulnerabilities into the forecasting process. In this paper, we investigate this threat and present a novel attack on autoregressive diffusion models, such as those used in GenCast, capable of manipulating weather forecasts and fabricating extreme events, including hurricanes, heat waves, and intense rainfall. The attack introduces subtle perturbations into weather observations that are statistically indistinguishable from natural noise and change less than 0.1% of the measurements - comparable to tampering with data from a single meteorological satellite. As modern forecasting integrates data from nearly a hundred satellites and many other sources operated by different countries, our findings highlight a critical security risk with the potential to cause large-scale disruptions and undermine public trust in weather prediction.


Trustworthy Decentralized Autonomous Machines: A New Paradigm in Automation Economy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Decentralized Autonomous Machines (DAMs) represent a transformative paradigm in automation economy, integrating artificial intelligence (AI), blockchain technology, and Internet of Things (IoT) devices to create self-governing economic agents participating in Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN). Capable of managing both digital and physical assets and unlike traditional Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs), DAMs extend autonomy into the physical world, enabling trustless systems for Real and Digital World Assets (RDWAs). In this paper, we explore the technological foundations, and challenges of DAMs and argue that DAMs are pivotal in transitioning from trust-based to trustless economic models, offering scalable, transparent, and equitable solutions for asset management. The integration of AI-driven decision-making, IoT-enabled operational autonomy, and blockchain-based governance allows DAMs to decentralize ownership, optimize resource allocation, and democratize access to economic opportunities. Therefore, in this research, we highlight the potential of DAMs to address inefficiencies in centralized systems, reduce wealth disparities, and foster a post-labor economy.


Multi-Modal Fusion of In-Situ Video Data and Process Parameters for Online Forecasting of Cookie Drying Readiness

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Food drying is essential for food production, extending shelf life, and reducing transportation costs. Accurate real-time forecasting of drying readiness is crucial for minimizing energy consumption, improving productivity, and ensuring product quality. However, this remains challenging due to the dynamic nature of drying, limited data availability, and the lack of effective predictive analytical methods. To address this gap, we propose an end-to-end multi-modal data fusion framework that integrates in-situ video data with process parameters for real-time food drying readiness forecasting. Our approach leverages a new encoder-decoder architecture with modality-specific encoders and a transformer-based decoder to effectively extract features while preserving the unique structure of each modality. We apply our approach to sugar cookie drying, where time-to-ready is predicted at each timestamp. Experimental results demonstrate that our model achieves an average prediction error of only 15 seconds, outperforming state-of-the-art data fusion methods by 65.69% and a video-only model by 11.30%. The proposed model is extensible to various other industrial modality fusion tasks for online decision-making. Introduction Drying is a fundamental process in the food industry that plays a critical role in both food production and preservation. By removing moisture, it transforms raw ingredients into their final, consumable forms while enhancing texture, flavor, and structural integrity [1]. However, food drying is a highly time-and energy-intensive process which accounts for 15% of energy consumption in U.S. industrial processes [2]. As a result, advancing drying technologies and improving product quality are key strategies for minimizing waste and enhancing energy efficiency [3].


Real-Time Optimal Design of Experiment for Parameter Identification of Li-Ion Cell Electrochemical Model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract: Accurately identifying the parameters of electrochemical models of li-ion battery (LiB) cells is a critical task for enhancing the fidelity and predictive ability. Traditional parameter identification methods often require extensive data collection experiments and lack adaptability in dynamic environments. This paper describes a Reinforcement Learning (RL) based approach that dynamically tailors the current profile applied to a LiB cell to optimize the parameters identifiability of the electrochemical model. The proposed framework is implemented in real-time using a Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) setup, which serves as a reliable testbed for evaluating the RL-based design strategy. The HIL validation confirms that the RL-based experimental design outperforms conventional test protocols used for parameter identification in terms of both reducing the modeling errors on a verification test and minimizing the duration of the experiment used for parameter identification.


Guillotine: Hypervisors for Isolating Malicious AIs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As AI models become more embedded in critical sectors like finance, healthcare, and the military, their inscrutable behavior poses ever-greater risks to society. To mitigate this risk, we propose Guillotine, a hypervisor architecture for sandboxing powerful AI models -- models that, by accident or malice, can generate existential threats to humanity. Although Guillotine borrows some well-known virtualization techniques, Guillotine must also introduce fundamentally new isolation mechanisms to handle the unique threat model posed by existential-risk AIs. For example, a rogue AI may try to introspect upon hypervisor software or the underlying hardware substrate to enable later subversion of that control plane; thus, a Guillotine hypervisor requires careful co-design of the hypervisor software and the CPUs, RAM, NIC, and storage devices that support the hypervisor software, to thwart side channel leakage and more generally eliminate mechanisms for AI to exploit reflection-based vulnerabilities. Beyond such isolation at the software, network, and microarchitectural layers, a Guillotine hypervisor must also provide physical fail-safes more commonly associated with nuclear power plants, avionic platforms, and other types of mission critical systems. Physical fail-safes, e.g., involving electromechanical disconnection of network cables, or the flooding of a datacenter which holds a rogue AI, provide defense in depth if software, network, and microarchitectural isolation is compromised and a rogue AI must be temporarily shut down or permanently destroyed.


LLM-Assisted Translation of Legacy FORTRAN Codes to C++: A Cross-Platform Study

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being leveraged for generating and translating scientific computer codes by both domain-experts and non-domain experts. Fortran has served as one of the go to programming languages in legacy high-performance computing (HPC) for scientific discoveries. Despite growing adoption, LLM-based code translation of legacy code-bases has not been thoroughly assessed or quantified for its usability. Here, we studied the applicability of LLM-based translation of Fortran to C++ as a step towards building an agentic-workflow using open-weight LLMs on two different computational platforms. We statistically quantified the compilation accuracy of the translated C++ codes, measured the similarity of the LLM translated code to the human translated C++ code, and statistically quantified the output similarity of the Fortran to C++ translation.


Transferable Learning of Reaction Pathways from Geometric Priors

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Identifying minimum-energy paths (MEPs) is crucial for understanding chemical reaction mechanisms but remains computationally demanding. We introduce MEPIN, a scalable machine-learning method for efficiently predicting MEPs from reactant and product configurations, without relying on transition-state geometries or pre-optimized reaction paths during training. The task is defined as predicting deviations from geometric interpolations along reaction coordinates. We address this task with a continuous reaction path model based on a symmetry-broken equivariant neural network that generates a flexible number of intermediate structures. The model is trained using an energy-based objective, with efficiency enhanced by incorporating geometric priors from geodesic interpolation as initial interpolations or pre-training objectives. Our approach generalizes across diverse chemical reactions and achieves accurate alignment with reference intrinsic reaction coordinates, as demonstrated on various small molecule reactions and [3+2] cycloadditions. Our method enables the exploration of large chemical reaction spaces with efficient, data-driven predictions of reaction pathways.


How to systematically develop an effective AI-based bias correction model?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is crucial in weather forecasting, providing indispensable guidance across temporal scales from nowcasting to seasonal forecasting (Bauer et al., 2015). As society becomes more dependent on accurate forecasts, there is an increasing demand for high-quality predictions, particularly in extreme events such as heat waves and cold surges, which can have severe social and economic impacts(Br as et al., 2023; Miao et al., 2024). Furthermore, atmospheric forecasts serve as critical boundary conditions for coupled Earth system models, where their accuracy directly governs the predictive capabilities of oceanographic and cryospheric simulations through dynamic coupling mechanisms. While the ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) represents the state-of-the-art in global operational prediction (Molteni et al., 1996), persistent systematic biases still exist, which arise from three fundamental sources: (1) inadequate spatial resolution to resolve subgrid-scale processes (Mishra et al., 2021), (2) inherent limitations in physical parameterization schemes (Berner et al., 2017; Brenowitz & Bretherton, 2018), and (3) uncertainties in initial/boundary condition specification (Peng & Xie, 2006). Current bias correction paradigms predominantly employ statistical postprocessing techniques, including uni-variate regression frameworks (Turco et al., 2017), adaptive filtering techniques (Chandramouli et al., 2022), and probabilistic calibration methods (Yumnam et al., 2022).


Scalability Optimization in Cloud-Based AI Inference Services: Strategies for Real-Time Load Balancing and Automated Scaling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rapid expansion of AI inference services in the cloud necessitates a robust scalability solution to manage dynamic workloads and maintain high performance. This study proposes a comprehensive scalability optimization framework for cloud AI inference services, focusing on real-time load balancing and autoscaling strategies. The proposed model is a hybrid approach that combines reinforcement learning for adaptive load distribution and deep neural networks for accurate demand forecasting. This multi-layered approach enables the system to anticipate workload fluctuations and proactively adjust resources, ensuring maximum resource utilisation and minimising latency. Furthermore, the incorporation of a decentralised decision-making process within the model serves to enhance fault tolerance and reduce response time in scaling operations. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model enhances load balancing efficiency by 35\ and reduces response delay by 28\, thereby exhibiting a substantial optimization effect in comparison with conventional scalability solutions.


How competitive are pay-as-bid auction games?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study the pay-as-bid auction game, a supply function model with discriminatory pricing and asymmetric firms. In this game, strategies are non-decreasing supply functions relating pric to quantity and the exact choice of the strategy space turns out to be a crucial issue: when it includes all non-decreasing continuous functions, pure-strategy Nash equilibria often fail to exist. To overcome this, we restrict the strategy space to the set of Lipschitz-continuous functions and we prove that Nash equilibria always exist (under standard concavity assumptions) and consist of functions that are affine on their own support and have slope equal to the maximum allowed Lipschitz constant. We further show that the Nash equilibrium is unique up to the market-clearing price when the demand is affine and the asymmetric marginal production costs are homogeneous in zero. For quadratic production costs, we derive a closed-form expression and we compute the limit as the allowed Lipschitz constant grows to infinity. Our results show that in the limit the pay-as-bid auction game achieves perfect competition with efficient allocation and induces a lower market-clearing price compared to supply function models based on uniform price auctions.