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Improving the Data-efficiency of Reinforcement Learning by Warm-starting with LLM

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We investigate the usage of Large Language Model (LLM) in collecting high-quality data to warm-start Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms for learning in some classical Markov Decision Process (MDP) environments. In this work, we focus on using LLM to generate an off-policy dataset that sufficiently covers state-actions visited by optimal policies, then later using an RL algorithm to explore the environment and improve the policy suggested by the LLM. Our algorithm, LORO, can both converge to an optimal policy and have a high sample efficiency thanks to the LLM's good starting policy. On multiple OpenAI Gym environments, such as CartPole and Pendulum, we empirically demonstrate that LORO outperforms baseline algorithms such as pure LLM-based policies, pure RL, and a naive combination of the two, achieving up to $4 \times$ the cumulative rewards of the pure RL baseline.


System Identification and Control Using Lyapunov-Based Deep Neural Networks without Persistent Excitation: A Concurrent Learning Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are increasingly used in control applications due to their powerful function approximation capabilities. However, many existing formulations focus primarily on tracking error convergence, often neglecting the challenge of identifying the system dynamics using the DNN. This paper presents the first result on simultaneous trajectory tracking and online system identification using a DNN-based controller, without requiring persistent excitation. Two new concurrent learning adaptation laws are constructed for the weights of all the layers of the DNN, achieving convergence of the DNN's parameter estimates to a neighborhood of their ideal values, provided the DNN's Jacobian satisfies a finite-time excitation condition. A Lyapunov-based stability analysis is conducted to ensure convergence of the tracking error, weight estimation errors, and observer errors to a neighborhood of the origin. Simulations performed on a range of systems and trajectories, with the same initial and operating conditions, demonstrated 40.5% to 73.6% improvement in function approximation performance compared to the baseline, while maintaining a similar tracking error and control effort. Simulations evaluating function approximation capabilities on data points outside of the trajectory resulted in 58.88% and 74.75% improvement in function approximation compared to the baseline.


Reinforcement Learning for AMR Charging Decisions: The Impact of Reward and Action Space Design

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a novel reinforcement learning (RL) design to optimize the charging strategy for autonomous mobile robots in large-scale block stacking warehouses. RL design involves a wide array of choices that can mostly only be evaluated through lengthy experimentation. Our study focuses on how different reward and action space configurations, ranging from flexible setups to more guided, domain-informed design configurations, affect the agent performance. Using heuristic charging strategies as a baseline, we demonstrate the superiority of flexible, RL-based approaches in terms of service times. Furthermore, our findings highlight a trade-off: While more open-ended designs are able to discover well-performing strategies on their own, they may require longer convergence times and are less stable, whereas guided configurations lead to a more stable learning process but display a more limited generalization potential. Our contributions are threefold. First, we extend SLAPStack, an open-source, RL-compatible simulation-framework to accommodate charging strategies. Second, we introduce a novel RL design for tackling the charging strategy problem. Finally, we introduce several novel adaptive baseline heuristics and reproducibly evaluate the design using a Proximal Policy Optimization agent and varying different design configurations, with a focus on reward.


Clustering Rooftop PV Systems via Probabilistic Embeddings

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Peter Palensky, Simon H. Tindemans Electrical Sustainable Energy Delft University of T echnology Delft, Netherlands { P .Palensky, S.H.Tindemans}@tudelft.nl Abstract --As the number of rooftop photovoltaic (PV) installations increases, aggregators and system operators are required to monitor and analyze these systems, raising the challenge of integration and management of large, spatially distributed time-series data that are both high-dimensional and affected by missing values. In this work, a probabilistic entity embedding-based clustering framework is proposed to address these problems. Applied to a multi-year residential PV dataset, it produces concise, uncertainty-aware cluster profiles that outperform a physics-based baseline in representativeness and robustness, and support reliable missing-value imputation. A systematic hyperparameter study further offers practical guidance for balancing model performance and robustness. I NTRODUCTION Modern energy systems are undergoing a rapid transformation, increasingly driven by decentralized generation sources, especially rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems installed across residential and commercial properties.


A Multi-scale Representation Learning Framework for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) offers broad utility in practical settings like energy consumption and weather prediction. Accurately predicting long-term changes, however, is demanding due to the intricate temporal patterns and inherent multi-scale variations within time series. This work confronts key issues in LTSF, including the suboptimal use of multi-granularity information, the neglect of channel-specific attributes, and the unique nature of trend and seasonal components, by introducing a proficient MLP-based forecasting framework. Our method adeptly disentangles complex temporal dynamics using clear, concurrent predictions across various scales. These multi-scale forecasts are then skillfully integrated through a system that dynamically assigns importance to information from different granularities, sensitive to individual channel characteristics. To manage the specific features of temporal patterns, a two-pronged structure is utilized to model trend and seasonal elements independently. Experimental results on eight LTSF benchmarks demonstrate that MDMixer improves average MAE performance by 4.64% compared to the recent state-of-the-art MLP-based method (TimeMixer), while achieving an effective balance between training efficiency and model interpretability.


IISE PG&E Energy Analytics Challenge 2025: Hourly-Binned Regression Models Beat Transformers in Load Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate electricity load forecasting is essential for grid stability, resource optimization, and renewable energy integration. While transformer-based deep learning models like TimeGPT have gained traction in time-series forecasting, their effectiveness in long-term electricity load prediction remains uncertain. This study evaluates forecasting models ranging from classical regression techniques to advanced deep learning architectures using data from the ESD 2025 competition. The dataset includes two years of historical electricity load data, alongside temperature and global horizontal irradiance (GHI) across five sites, with a one-day-ahead forecasting horizon. Since actual test set load values remain undisclosed, leveraging predicted values would accumulate errors, making this a long-term forecasting challenge. We employ (i) Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for dimensionality reduction and (ii) frame the task as a regression problem, using temperature and GHI as covariates to predict load for each hour, (iii) ultimately stacking 24 models to generate yearly forecasts. Our results reveal that deep learning models, including TimeGPT, fail to consistently outperform simpler statistical and machine learning approaches due to the limited availability of training data and exogenous variables. In contrast, XGBoost, with minimal feature engineering, delivers the lowest error rates across all test cases while maintaining computational efficiency. This highlights the limitations of deep learning in long-term electricity forecasting and reinforces the importance of model selection based on dataset characteristics rather than complexity. Our study provides insights into practical forecasting applications and contributes to the ongoing discussion on the trade-offs between traditional and modern forecasting methods.


Reinforcement Learning Closures for Underresolved Partial Differential Equations using Synthetic Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) describe phenomena ranging from turbulence and epidemics to quantum mechanics and financial markets. Despite recent advances in computational science, solving such PDEs for real-world applications remains prohibitively expensive because of the necessity of resolving a broad range of spatiotemporal scales. In turn, practitioners often rely on coarse-grained approximations of the original PDEs, trading off accuracy for reduced computational resources. To mitigate the loss of detail inherent in such approximations, closure models are employed to represent unresolved spatiotemporal interactions. We present a framework for developing closure models for PDEs using synthetic data acquired through the method of manufactured solutions. These data are used in conjunction with reinforcement learning to provide closures for coarse-grained PDEs. We illustrate the efficacy of our method using the one-dimensional and two-dimensional Burgers' equations and the two-dimensional advection equation. Moreover, we demonstrate that closure models trained for inhomogeneous PDEs can be effectively generalized to homogeneous PDEs. The results demonstrate the potential for developing accurate and computationally efficient closure models for systems with scarce data.


CTP: A hybrid CNN-Transformer-PINN model for ocean front forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

--This paper proposes CTP, a novel deep learning framework that integrates convolutional neural network(CNN), Transformer architectures, and physics-informed neural network(PINN) for ocean front prediction. Ocean fronts, as dynamic interfaces between distinct water masses, play critical roles in marine biogeochemical and physical processes. Existing methods such as LSTM, ConvLSTM, and AttentionConv often struggle to maintain spatial continuity and physical consistency over multi-step forecasts. Experimental results across south China sea(SCS) and Kuroshio(KUR) regions from 1993 to 2020 demonstrate that CTP achieves state-of-the-art(SOT A) performance in both single-step and multi-step predictions, significantly outperforming baseline models in accuracy, F 1 score, and temporal stability. I NTRODUCTION O CEAN fronts, characterized by sharp gradients in physical and biogeochemical properties such as temperature, salinity, and nutrient concentrations, are critical yet dynamic features of the global ocean [1]. These transitional zones, formed by the convergence of distinct water masses, play a pivotal role in regulating energy transfer, material cycling, and biological processes across marine ecosystems [2]. The study of fronts is essential for advancing understanding of ocean dynamics, as they act as hotspots for vertical mixing, influence large-scale circulation patterns, and modulate air-sea interactions that impact regional and global climate systems [3].


Graph and Simplicial Complex Prediction Gaussian Process via the Hodgelet Representations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Predicting the labels of graph-structured data is crucial in scientific applications and is often achieved using graph neural networks (GNNs). However, when data is scarce, GNNs suffer from overfitting, leading to poor performance. Recently, Gaussian processes (GPs) with graph-level inputs have been proposed as an alternative. In this work, we extend the Gaussian process framework to simplicial complexes (SCs), enabling the handling of edge-level attributes and attributes supported on higher-order simplices. We further augment the resulting SC representations by considering their Hodge decompositions, allowing us to account for homological information, such as the number of holes, in the SC. We demonstrate that our framework enhances the predictions across various applications, paving the way for GPs to be more widely used for graph and SC-level predictions.


Seasonal Forecasting of Pan-Arctic Sea Ice with State Space Model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rapid decline of Arctic sea ice resulting from anthropogenic climate change poses significant risks to indigenous communities, ecosystems, and the global climate system. This situation emphasizes the immediate necessity for precise seasonal sea ice forecasts. While dynamical models perform well for short-term forecasts, they encounter limitations in long-term forecasts and are computationally intensive. Deep learning models, while more computationally efficient, often have difficulty managing seasonal variations and uncertainties when dealing with complex sea ice dynamics. In this research, we introduce IceMamba, a deep learning architecture that integrates sophisticated attention mechanisms within the state space model. Through comparative analysis of 25 renowned forecast models, including dynamical, statistical, and deep learning approaches, our experimental results indicate that IceMamba delivers excellent seasonal forecasting capabilities for Pan-Arctic sea ice concentration. Specifically, IceMamba outperforms all tested models regarding average RMSE and anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) and ranks second in Integrated Ice Edge Error (IIEE). This innovative approach enhances our ability to foresee and alleviate the effects of sea ice variability, offering essential insights for strategies aimed at climate adaptation.