Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) offers broad utility in practical settings like energy consumption and weather prediction. Accurately predicting long-term changes, however, is demanding due to the intricate temporal patterns and inherent multi-scale variations within time series. This work confronts key issues in LTSF, including the suboptimal use of multi-granularity information, the neglect of channel-specific attributes, and the unique nature of trend and seasonal components, by introducing a proficient MLP-based forecasting framework. Our method adeptly disentangles complex temporal dynamics using clear, concurrent predictions across various scales. These multi-scale forecasts are then skillfully integrated through a system that dynamically assigns importance to information from different granularities, sensitive to individual channel characteristics. To manage the specific features of temporal patterns, a two-pronged structure is utilized to model trend and seasonal elements independently. Experimental results on eight LTSF benchmarks demonstrate that MDMixer improves average MAE performance by 4.64% compared to the recent state-of-the-art MLP-based method (TimeMixer), while achieving an effective balance between training efficiency and model interpretability.

Accurate electricity load forecasting is essential for grid stability, resource optimization, and renewable energy integration. While transformer-based deep learning models like TimeGPT have gained traction in time-series forecasting, their effectiveness in long-term electricity load prediction remains uncertain. This study evaluates forecasting models ranging from classical regression techniques to advanced deep learning architectures using data from the ESD 2025 competition. The dataset includes two years of historical electricity load data, alongside temperature and global horizontal irradiance (GHI) across five sites, with a one-day-ahead forecasting horizon. Since actual test set load values remain undisclosed, leveraging predicted values would accumulate errors, making this a long-term forecasting challenge. We employ (i) Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for dimensionality reduction and (ii) frame the task as a regression problem, using temperature and GHI as covariates to predict load for each hour, (iii) ultimately stacking 24 models to generate yearly forecasts. Our results reveal that deep learning models, including TimeGPT, fail to consistently outperform simpler statistical and machine learning approaches due to the limited availability of training data and exogenous variables. In contrast, XGBoost, with minimal feature engineering, delivers the lowest error rates across all test cases while maintaining computational efficiency. This highlights the limitations of deep learning in long-term electricity forecasting and reinforces the importance of model selection based on dataset characteristics rather than complexity. Our study provides insights into practical forecasting applications and contributes to the ongoing discussion on the trade-offs between traditional and modern forecasting methods.

Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) describe phenomena ranging from turbulence and epidemics to quantum mechanics and financial markets. Despite recent advances in computational science, solving such PDEs for real-world applications remains prohibitively expensive because of the necessity of resolving a broad range of spatiotemporal scales. In turn, practitioners often rely on coarse-grained approximations of the original PDEs, trading off accuracy for reduced computational resources. To mitigate the loss of detail inherent in such approximations, closure models are employed to represent unresolved spatiotemporal interactions. We present a framework for developing closure models for PDEs using synthetic data acquired through the method of manufactured solutions. These data are used in conjunction with reinforcement learning to provide closures for coarse-grained PDEs. We illustrate the efficacy of our method using the one-dimensional and two-dimensional Burgers' equations and the two-dimensional advection equation. Moreover, we demonstrate that closure models trained for inhomogeneous PDEs can be effectively generalized to homogeneous PDEs. The results demonstrate the potential for developing accurate and computationally efficient closure models for systems with scarce data.

--This paper proposes CTP, a novel deep learning framework that integrates convolutional neural network(CNN), Transformer architectures, and physics-informed neural network(PINN) for ocean front prediction. Ocean fronts, as dynamic interfaces between distinct water masses, play critical roles in marine biogeochemical and physical processes. Existing methods such as LSTM, ConvLSTM, and AttentionConv often struggle to maintain spatial continuity and physical consistency over multi-step forecasts. Experimental results across south China sea(SCS) and Kuroshio(KUR) regions from 1993 to 2020 demonstrate that CTP achieves state-of-the-art(SOT A) performance in both single-step and multi-step predictions, significantly outperforming baseline models in accuracy, F 1 score, and temporal stability. I NTRODUCTION O CEAN fronts, characterized by sharp gradients in physical and biogeochemical properties such as temperature, salinity, and nutrient concentrations, are critical yet dynamic features of the global ocean [1]. These transitional zones, formed by the convergence of distinct water masses, play a pivotal role in regulating energy transfer, material cycling, and biological processes across marine ecosystems [2]. The study of fronts is essential for advancing understanding of ocean dynamics, as they act as hotspots for vertical mixing, influence large-scale circulation patterns, and modulate air-sea interactions that impact regional and global climate systems [3].

Predicting the labels of graph-structured data is crucial in scientific applications and is often achieved using graph neural networks (GNNs). However, when data is scarce, GNNs suffer from overfitting, leading to poor performance. Recently, Gaussian processes (GPs) with graph-level inputs have been proposed as an alternative. In this work, we extend the Gaussian process framework to simplicial complexes (SCs), enabling the handling of edge-level attributes and attributes supported on higher-order simplices. We further augment the resulting SC representations by considering their Hodge decompositions, allowing us to account for homological information, such as the number of holes, in the SC. We demonstrate that our framework enhances the predictions across various applications, paving the way for GPs to be more widely used for graph and SC-level predictions.

The rapid decline of Arctic sea ice resulting from anthropogenic climate change poses significant risks to indigenous communities, ecosystems, and the global climate system. This situation emphasizes the immediate necessity for precise seasonal sea ice forecasts. While dynamical models perform well for short-term forecasts, they encounter limitations in long-term forecasts and are computationally intensive. Deep learning models, while more computationally efficient, often have difficulty managing seasonal variations and uncertainties when dealing with complex sea ice dynamics. In this research, we introduce IceMamba, a deep learning architecture that integrates sophisticated attention mechanisms within the state space model. Through comparative analysis of 25 renowned forecast models, including dynamical, statistical, and deep learning approaches, our experimental results indicate that IceMamba delivers excellent seasonal forecasting capabilities for Pan-Arctic sea ice concentration. Specifically, IceMamba outperforms all tested models regarding average RMSE and anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) and ranks second in Integrated Ice Edge Error (IIEE). This innovative approach enhances our ability to foresee and alleviate the effects of sea ice variability, offering essential insights for strategies aimed at climate adaptation.

W e discuss the challenges and propose a framework for evalua ting engineering artificial general intelligence ( eAGI) agents. W e consider eAGI as a specialization of artificial general intelligence (AGI), deemed capab le of addressing a broad range of problems in the engineering of physical systems and associated controllers. W e exclude software engineering for a tractable s coping of eAGI and expect dedicated software engineering AI agents to address the software implementation challenges. Similar to human engineers, eAGI agents should possess a unique blend of background knowledge (recall and retrieve) of facts and methods, demonstrate familiarity with tools and processes, exhibit deep understanding of industrial components and well-known design families, and be able to engage in creative problem solving (analyze and synthesize), transf erring ideas acquired in one context to another . Given this broad mandate, evaluatin g and qualifying the performance of eAGI agents is a challenge in itself and, arguably, a critical ena bler to developing eAGI agents. In this paper, we address this challenge by proposin g an extensible evaluation framework that specializes and gr ounds Bloom's taxonomy - a framework for evaluating human learning that has also been recently used for evaluating LLMs - in an engineering design context. Our p roposed framework advances the state of the art in benchmarking and evaluation of AI agents in terms of the following: (a) developing a rich taxonomy of evaluati on questions spanning from methodological knowledge to real-world design proble ms; (b) motivating a pluggable evaluation framework that can evaluate not only t extual responses but also evaluate structured design artifacts such as CAD model s and SysML models; and (c) outlining an automatable procedure to customize the evaluation benchmark to different engineering contexts.

AI power demand is growing unprecedentedly thanks to the high power density of AI compute and the emerging inferencing workload. On the supply side, abundant wind power is waiting for grid access in interconnection queues. In this light, this paper argues bringing AI workload to modular compute clusters co-located in wind farms. Our deployment right-sizing strategy makes it economically viable to deploy more than 6 million high-end GPUs today that could consume cheap, green power at its source. We built Heron, a cross-site software router, that could efficiently leverage the complementarity of power generation across wind farms by routing AI inferencing workload around power drops. Using 1-week ofcoding and conversation production traces from Azure and (real) variable wind power traces, we show how Heron improves aggregate goodput of AI compute by up to 80% compared to the state-of-the-art.

Classification of multi-dimensional time series from real-world systems require fine-grained learning of complex features such as cross-dimensional dependencies and intra-class variations-all under the practical challenge of low training data availability. However, standard deep learning (DL) struggles to learn generalizable features in low-data environments due to model overfitting. We propose a versatile yet data-efficient framework, Intelligently Augmented Contrastive Tensor Factorization (ITA-CTF), to learn effective representations from multi-dimensional time series. The CTF module learns core explanatory components of the time series (e.g., sensor factors, temporal factors), and importantly, their joint dependencies. Notably, unlike standard tensor factorization (TF), the CTF module incorporates a new contrastive loss optimization to induce similarity learning and class-awareness into the learnt representations for better classification performance. To strengthen this contrastive learning, the preceding ITA module generates targeted but informative augmentations that highlight realistic intra-class patterns in the original data, while preserving class-wise properties. This is achieved by dynamically sampling a "soft" class prototype to guide the warping of each query data sample, which results in an augmentation that is intelligently pattern-mixed between the "soft" class prototype and the query sample. These augmentations enable the CTF module to recognize complex intra-class variations despite the limited original training data, and seek out invariant class-wise properties for accurate classification performance. The proposed method is comprehensively evaluated on five different classification tasks. Compared to standard TF and several DL benchmarks, notable performance improvements up to 18.7% were achieved.

Achieving animal-like agility is a longstanding goal in quadrupedal robotics. While recent studies have successfully demonstrated imitation of specific behaviors, enabling robots to replicate a broader range of natural behaviors in real-world environments remains an open challenge. Here we propose an integrated controller comprising a Basic Behavior Controller (BBC) and a Task-Specific Controller (TSC) which can effectively learn diverse natural quadrupedal behaviors in an enhanced simulator and efficiently transfer them to the real world. Specifically, the BBC is trained using a novel semi-supervised generative adversarial imitation learning algorithm to extract diverse behavioral styles from raw motion capture data of real dogs, enabling smooth behavior transitions by adjusting discrete and continuous latent variable inputs. The TSC, trained via privileged learning with depth images as input, coordinates the BBC to efficiently perform various tasks. Additionally, we employ evolutionary adversarial simulator identification to optimize the simulator, aligning it closely with reality. After training, the robot exhibits diverse natural behaviors, successfully completing the quadrupedal agility challenge at an average speed of 1.1 m/s and achieving a peak speed of 3.2 m/s during hurdling. This work represents a substantial step toward animal-like agility in quadrupedal robots, opening avenues for their deployment in increasingly complex real-world environments.