The rapid expansion of distributed photovoltaic (PV) installations worldwide, many being behind-the-meter systems, has significantly challenged energy management and grid operations, as unobservable PV generation further complicates the supply-demand balance. Therefore, estimating this generation from net load, known as PV disaggregation, is critical. Given privacy concerns and the need for large training datasets, federated learning becomes a promising approach, but statistical heterogeneity, arising from geographical and behavioral variations among prosumers, poses new challenges to PV disaggregation. To overcome these challenges, a privacy-preserving distributed PV disaggregation framework is proposed using Personalized Federated Learning (PFL). The proposed method employs a two-level framework that combines local and global modeling. At the local level, a transformer-based PV disaggregation model is designed to generate solar irradiance embeddings for representing local PV conditions. A novel adaptive local aggregation mechanism is adopted to mitigate the impact of statistical heterogeneity on the local model, extracting a portion of global information that benefits the local model. At the global level, a central server aggregates information uploaded from multiple data centers, preserving privacy while enabling cross-center knowledge sharing. Experiments on real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of this proposed framework, showing improved accuracy and robustness compared to benchmark methods.

Most existing multivariate time series forecasting methods adopt an all-to-all paradigm that feeds all variable histories into a unified model to predict their future values without distinguishing their individual roles. However, this undifferentiated paradigm makes it difficult to identify variable-specific causal influences and often entangles causally relevant information with spurious correlations. To address this limitation, we propose an all-to-one forecasting paradigm that predicts each target variable separately. Specifically, we first construct a Structural Causal Model from observational data and then, for each target variable, we partition the historical sequence into four sub-segments according to the inferred causal structure: endogenous, direct causal, collider causal, and spurious correlation. The prediction relies solely on the first three causally relevant sub-segments, while the spurious correlation sub-segment is excluded. Furthermore, we propose Causal Informed Transformer (CAIFormer), a novel forecasting model comprising three components: Endogenous Sub-segment Prediction Block, Direct Causal Sub-segment Prediction Block, and Collider Causal Sub-segment Prediction Block, which process the endogenous, direct causal, and collider causal sub-segments, respectively. Their outputs are then combined to produce the final prediction. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the CAIFormer.

Tabular data, owing to its ubiquitous presence in real-world domains, has garnered significant attention in machine learning research. While tree-based models have long dominated tabular machine learning tasks, the recently proposed deep learning model TabPFN v2 has emerged, demonstrating unparalleled performance and scalability potential. Although extensive research has been conducted on TabPFN v2 to further improve performance, the majority of this research remains confined to closed environments, neglecting the challenges that frequently arise in open environments. This raises the question: Can TabPFN v2 maintain good performance in open environments? To this end, we conduct the first comprehensive evaluation of TabPFN v2's adaptability in open environments. We construct a unified evaluation framework covering various real-world challenges and assess the robustness of TabPFN v2 under open environments scenarios using this framework. Empirical results demonstrate that TabPFN v2 shows significant limitations in open environments but is suitable for small-scale, covariate-shifted, and class-balanced tasks. Tree-based models remain the optimal choice for general tabular tasks in open environments. To facilitate future research on open environments challenges, we advocate for open environments tabular benchmarks, multi-metric evaluation, and universal modules to strengthen model robustness. We publicly release our evaluation framework at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/tabpfn-ood-4E65.

AI's energy use already represents as much as 20 percent of global data-center power demand, research published Thursday in the journal Joule shows. That demand from AI, the research states, could double by the end of this year, comprising nearly half of all total data-center electricity consumption worldwide, excluding the electricity used for bitcoin mining. The new research is published in a commentary by Alex de Vries-Gao, the founder of Digiconomist, a research company that evaluates the environmental impact of technology. De Vries-Gao started Digiconomist in the late 2010s to explore the impact of bitcoin mining, another extremely energy-intensive activity, would have on the environment. Looking at AI, he says, has grown more urgent over the past few years because of the widespread adoption of ChatGPT and other large language models that use massive amounts of energy. According to his research, worldwide AI energy demand is now set to surpass demand from bitcoin mining by the end of this year.

Artificial intelligence systems could account for nearly half of datacentre power consumption by the end of this year, analysis has revealed. The estimates by Alex de Vries-Gao, the founder of the Digiconomist tech sustainability website, came as the International Energy Agency forecast that AI would require almost as much energy by the end of this decade as Japan uses today. De Vries-Gao's calculations, to be published in the sustainable energy journal Joule, are based on the power consumed by chips made by Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices that are used to train and operate AI models. The paper also takes into account the energy consumption of chips used by other companies, such as Broadcom. The IEA estimates that all data centres – excluding mining for cryptocurrencies – consumed 415 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity last year.

One key caveat here is that we don't know much about "closed source" models--for these, companies hold back the details of how they work. Instead, we worked with researchers who measured the energy it takes to run open-source AI models, for which the source code is publicly available. But using open-source models, it's possible to directly measure the energy used to respond to a query rather than just guess. We worked with researchers who generated text, images, and video and measured the energy required for the chips the models are based on to perform the task. Even just within the text responses, there was a pretty large range of energy needs.

Time series forecasting models often produce systematic, predictable errors even in critical domains such as energy, finance, and healthcare. We introduce a novel post training adaptive optimization framework that improves forecast accuracy without retraining or architectural changes. Our method automatically applies expressive transformations optimized via reinforcement learning, contextual bandits, or genetic algorithms to correct model outputs in a lightweight and model agnostic way. Theoretically, we prove that affine corrections always reduce the mean squared error; practically, we extend this idea with dynamic action based optimization. The framework also supports an optional human in the loop component: domain experts can guide corrections using natural language, which is parsed into actions by a language model. Across multiple benchmarks (e.g., electricity, weather, traffic), we observe consistent accuracy gains with minimal computational overhead. Our interactive demo shows the framework's real time usability. By combining automated post hoc refinement with interpretable and extensible mechanisms, our approach offers a powerful new direction for practical forecasting systems.

This paper explores Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in SVM predictions, particularly for regression and forecasting tasks. Unlike the Neural Network, the SVM solutions are typically more stable, sparse, optimal and interpretable. However, there are only few literature which addresses the UQ in SVM prediction. At first, we provide a comprehensive summary of existing Prediction Interval (PI) estimation and probabilistic forecasting methods developed in the SVM framework and evaluate them against the key properties expected from an ideal PI model. We find that none of the existing SVM PI models achieves a sparse solution. To introduce sparsity in SVM model, we propose the Sparse Support Vector Quantile Regression (SSVQR) model, which constructs PIs and probabilistic forecasts by solving a pair of linear programs. Further, we develop a feature selection algorithm for PI estimation using SSVQR that effectively eliminates a significant number of features while improving PI quality in case of high-dimensional dataset. Finally we extend the SVM models in Conformal Regression setting for obtaining more stable prediction set with finite test set guarantees. Extensive experiments on artificial, real-world benchmark datasets compare the different characteristics of both existing and proposed SVM-based PI estimation methods and also highlight the advantages of the feature selection in PI estimation. Furthermore, we compare both, the existing and proposed SVM-based PI estimation models, with modern deep learning models for probabilistic forecasting tasks on benchmark datasets. Furthermore, SVM models show comparable or superior performance to modern complex deep learning models for probabilistic forecasting task in our experiments.

-- This paper presents a 3-DOF hopping robot with a human-like lower-limb joint configuration and a flat foot, capable of performing dynamic and repetitive jumping motions. T o achieve both high torque output and a large hollow shaft diameter for efficient cable routing, a compact 3K compound planetary gearbox was designed using mixed-integer nonlinear programming for gear tooth optimization. T o meet performance requirements within the constrained joint geometry, all major components--including the actuator, motor driver, and communication interface--were custom-designed. The robot weighs 12.45 kg, including a dummy mass, and measures 840 mm in length when the knee joint is fully extended. A reinforcement learning-based controller was employed, and the robot's performance was validated through hardware experiments, demonstrating stable and repetitive hopping motions in response to user inputs. These experimental results indicate that the platform serves as a solid foundation for future bipedal robot development. A supplementary video is available at: https://youtu.be/BZ2H0dQBcXc

Neural Architecture Search (NAS) accelerates progress in deep learning through systematic refinement of model architectures. The downside is increasingly large energy consumption during the search process. Surrogate-based benchmarking mitigates the cost of full training by querying a pre-trained surrogate to obtain an estimate for the quality of the model. Specifically, energy-aware benchmarking aims to make it possible for NAS to favourably trade off model energy consumption against accuracy. Towards this end, we propose three design principles for such energy-aware benchmarks: (i) reliable power measurements, (ii) a wide range of GPU usage, and (iii) holistic cost reporting. We analyse EA-HAS-Bench based on these principles and find that the choice of GPU measurement API has a large impact on the quality of results. Using the Nvidia System Management Interface (SMI) on top of its underlying library influences the sampling rate during the initial data collection, returning faulty low-power estimations. This results in poor correlation with accurate measurements obtained from an external power meter. With this study, we bring to attention several key considerations when performing energy-aware surrogate-based benchmarking and derive first guidelines that can help design novel benchmarks. We show a narrow usage range of the four GPUs attached to our device, ranging from 146 W to 305 W in a single-GPU setting, and narrowing down even further when using all four GPUs. To improve holistic energy reporting, we propose calibration experiments over assumptions made in popular tools, such as Code Carbon, thus achieving reductions in the maximum inaccuracy from 10.3 % to 8.9 % without and to 6.6 % with prior estimation of the expected load on the device.