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M2WLLM: Multi-Modal Multi-Task Ultra-Short-term Wind Power Prediction Algorithm Based on Large Language Model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The integration of wind energy into power grids necessitates accurate ultra-short-term wind power forecasting to ensure grid stability and optimize resource allocation. This study introduces M2WLLM, an innovative model that leverages the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) for predicting wind power output at granular time intervals. M2WLLM overcomes the limitations of traditional and deep learning methods by seamlessly integrating textual information and temporal numerical data, significantly improving wind power forecasting accuracy through multi-modal data. Its architecture features a Prompt Embedder and a Data Embedder, enabling an effective fusion of textual prompts and numerical inputs within the LLMs framework. The Semantic Augmenter within the Data Embedder translates temporal data into a format that the LLMs can comprehend, enabling it to extract latent features and improve prediction accuracy. The empirical evaluations conducted on wind farm data from three Chinese provinces demonstrate that M2WLLM consistently outperforms existing methods, such as GPT4TS, across various datasets and prediction horizons. The results highlight LLMs' ability to enhance accuracy and robustness in ultra-short-term forecasting and showcase their strong few-shot learning capabilities.


Goal-Aware Identification and Rectification of Misinformation in Multi-Agent Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Model-based Multi-Agent Systems (MASs) have demonstrated strong advantages in addressing complex real-world tasks. However, due to the introduction of additional attack surfaces, MASs are particularly vulnerable to misinformation injection. To facilitate a deeper understanding of misinformation propagation dynamics within these systems, we introduce MisinfoTask, a novel dataset featuring complex, realistic tasks designed to evaluate MAS robustness against such threats. Building upon this, we propose ARGUS, a two-stage, training-free defense framework leveraging goal-aware reasoning for precise misinformation rectification within information flows. Our experiments demonstrate that in challenging misinformation scenarios, ARGUS exhibits significant efficacy across various injection attacks, achieving an average reduction in misinformation toxicity of approximately 28.17% and improving task success rates under attack by approximately 10.33%. Our code and dataset is available at: https://github.com/zhrli324/ARGUS.


Dynamic Domain Adaptation-Driven Physics-Informed Graph Representation Learning for AC-OPF

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Alternating Current Optimal Power Flow (AC-OPF) aims to optimize generator power outputs by utilizing the non-linear relationships between voltage magnitudes and phase angles in a power system. However, current AC-OPF solvers struggle to effectively represent the complex relationship between variable distributions in the constraint space and their corresponding optimal solutions. This limitation in constraint modeling restricts the system's ability to develop diverse knowledge representations. Additionally, modeling the power grid solely based on spatial topology further limits the integration of additional prior knowledge, such as temporal information. To overcome these challenges, we propose DDA-PIGCN (Dynamic Domain Adaptation-Driven Physics-Informed Graph Convolutional Network), a new method designed to address constraint-related issues and build a graph-based learning framework that incorporates spatiotemporal features. DDA-PIGCN improves consistency optimization for features with varying long-range dependencies by applying multi-layer, hard physics-informed constraints. It also uses a dynamic domain adaptation learning mechanism that iteratively updates and refines key state variables under predefined constraints, enabling precise constraint verification. Moreover, it captures spatiotemporal dependencies between generators and loads by leveraging the physical structure of the power grid, allowing for deep integration of topological information across time and space. Extensive comparative and ablation studies show that DDA-PIGCN delivers strong performance across several IEEE standard test cases (such as case9, case30, and case300), achieving mean absolute errors (MAE) from 0.0011 to 0.0624 and constraint satisfaction rates between 99.6% and 100%, establishing it as a reliable and efficient AC-OPF solver.


Comparing Traditional and Reinforcement-Learning Methods for Energy Storage Control

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We aim to better understand the tradeoffs between traditional and reinforcement learning (RL) approaches for energy storage management. More specifically, we wish to better understand the performance loss incurred when using a generative RL policy instead of using a traditional approach to find optimal control policies for specific instances. Our comparison is based on a simplified micro-grid model, that includes a load component, a photovoltaic source, and a storage device. Based on this model, we examine three use cases of increasing complexity: ideal storage with convex cost functions, lossy storage devices, and lossy storage devices with convex transmission losses. With the aim of promoting the principled use RL based methods in this challenging and important domain, we provide a detailed formulation of each use case and a detailed description of the optimization challenges. We then compare the performance of traditional and RL methods, discuss settings in which it is beneficial to use each method, and suggest avenues for future investigation.


Navigation of a Three-Link Microswimmer via Deep Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Motile microorganisms develop effective swimming gaits to adapt to complex biological environments. Translating this adaptability to smart microrobots presents significant challenges in motion planning and stroke design. In this work, we explore the use of reinforcement learning (RL) to develop stroke patterns for targeted navigation in a three-link swimmer model at low Reynolds numbers. Specifically, we design two RL-based strategies: one focusing on maximizing velocity (Velocity-Focused Strategy) and another balancing velocity with energy consumption (Energy-Aware Strategy). Our results demonstrate how the use of different reward functions influences the resulting stroke patterns developed via RL, which are compared with those obtained from traditional optimization methods. Furthermore, we showcase the capability of the RL-powered swimmer in adapting its stroke patterns in performing different navigation tasks, including tracing complex trajectories and pursuing moving targets. Taken together, this work highlights the potential of reinforcement learning as a versatile tool for designing efficient and adaptive microswimmers capable of sophisticated maneuvers in complex environments.


Direct Feedback Alignment Provides Learning in Deep Neural Networks

Neural Information Processing Systems

Artificial neural networks are most commonly trained with the back-propagation algorithm, where the gradient for learning is provided by back-propagating the error, layer by layer, from the output layer to the hidden layers. A recently discovered method called feedback-alignment shows that the weights used for propagating the error backward don't have to be symmetric with the weights used for propagation the activation forward. In fact, random feedback weights work evenly well, because the network learns how to make the feedback useful. In this work, the feedback alignment principle is used for training hidden layers more independently from the rest of the network, and from a zero initial condition. The error is propagated through fixed random feedback connections directly from the output layer to each hidden layer. This simple method is able to achieve zero training error even in convolutional networks and very deep networks, completely without error backpropagation. The method is a step towards biologically plausible machine learning because the error signal is almost local, and no symmetric or reciprocal weights are required. Experiments show that the test performance on MNIST and CIFAR is almost as good as those obtained with back-propagation for fully connected networks. If combined with dropout, the method achieves 1.45% error on the permutation invariant MNIST task.


Consistency Models for Scalable and Fast Simulation-Based Inference

Neural Information Processing Systems

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is constantly in search of more expressive and efficient algorithms to accurately infer the parameters of complex simulation models. In line with this goal, we present consistency models for posterior estimation (CMPE), a new conditional sampler for SBI that inherits the advantages of recent unconstrained architectures and overcomes their sampling inefficiency at inference time. CMPE essentially distills a continuous probability flow and enables rapid few-shot inference with an unconstrained architecture that can be flexibly tailored to the structure of the estimation problem. We provide hyperparameters and default architectures that support consistency training over a wide range of different dimensions, including low-dimensional ones which are important in SBI workflows but were previously difficult to tackle even with unconditional consistency models. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that CMPE not only outperforms current state-of-the-art algorithms on hard low-dimensional benchmarks, but also achieves competitive performance with much faster sampling speed on two realistic estimation problems with high data and/or parameter dimensions.


Achieving the KS threshold in the general stochastic block model with linearized acyclic belief propagation

Neural Information Processing Systems

The stochastic block model (SBM) has long been studied in machine learning and network science as a canonical model for clustering and community detection. In the recent years, new developments have demonstrated the presence of threshold phenomena for this model, which have set new challenges for algorithms. For the detection problem in symmetric SBMs, Decelle et al. conjectured that the so-called Kesten-Stigum (KS) threshold can be achieved efficiently. This was proved for two communities, but remained open for three and more communities. We prove this conjecture here, obtaining a general result that applies to arbitrary SBMs with linear size communities. The developed algorithm is a linearized acyclic belief propagation (ABP) algorithm, which mitigates the effects of cycles while provably achieving the KS threshold in O(n ln n) time. This extends prior methods by achieving universally the KS threshold while reducing or preserving the computational complexity. ABP is also connected to a power iteration method on a generalized nonbacktracking operator, formalizing the spectral-message passing interplay described in Krzakala et al., and extending results from Bordenave et al.


Should We Simultaneously Calibrate Multiple Computer Models?

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In an increasing number of applications designers have access to multiple computer models which typically have different levels of fidelity and cost. Traditionally, designers calibrate these models one at a time against some high-fidelity data (e.g., experiments). In this paper, we question this tradition and assess the potential of calibrating multiple computer models at the same time. To this end, we develop a probabilistic framework that is founded on customized neural networks (NNs) that are designed to calibrate an arbitrary number of computer models. In our approach, we (1) consider the fact that most computer models are multi-response and that the number and nature of calibration parameters may change across the models, and (2) learn a unique probability distribution for each calibration parameter of each computer model, (3) develop a loss function that enables our NN to emulate all data sources while calibrating the computer models, and (4) aim to learn a visualizable latent space where model-form errors can be identified. We test the performance of our approach on analytic and engineering problems to understand the potential advantages and pitfalls in simultaneous calibration of multiple computer models. Our method can improve predictive accuracy, however, it is prone to non-identifiability issues in higher-dimensional input spaces that are normally constrained by underlying physics.


AutoReproduce: Automatic AI Experiment Reproduction with Paper Lineage

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Efficient experiment reproduction is critical to accelerating progress in artificial intelligence. However, the inherent complexity of method design and training procedures presents substantial challenges for automation. Notably, reproducing experiments often requires implicit domain-specific knowledge not explicitly documented in the original papers. To address this, we introduce the paper lineage algorithm, which identifies and extracts implicit knowledge from the relevant references cited by the target paper. Building on this idea, we propose AutoReproduce, a multi-agent framework capable of automatically reproducing experiments described in research papers in an end-to-end manner. AutoReproduce enhances code executability by generating unit tests alongside the reproduction process. To evaluate the reproduction capability, we construct ReproduceBench, a benchmark annotated with verified implementations, and introduce novel evaluation metrics to assess both the reproduction and execution fidelity. Experimental results demonstrate that AutoReproduce outperforms the existing strong agent baselines on all five evaluation metrics by a peak margin of over $70\%$. In particular, compared to the official implementations, AutoReproduce achieves an average performance gap of $22.1\%$ on $89.74\%$ of the executable experiment runs. The code will be available at https://github.com/AI9Stars/AutoReproduce.