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Accurate and Uncertainty-Aware Multi-Task Prediction of HEA Properties Using Prior-Guided Deep Gaussian Processes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Surrogate modeling techniques have become indispensable in accelerating the discovery and optimization of high-entropy alloys(HEAs), especially when integrating computational predictions with sparse experimental observations. This study systematically evaluates the fitting performance of four prominent surrogate models conventional Gaussian Processes(cGP), Deep Gaussian Processes(DGP), encoder-decoder neural networks for multi-output regression and XGBoost applied to a hybrid dataset of experimental and computational properties in the AlCoCrCuFeMnNiV HEA system. We specifically assess their capabilities in predicting correlated material properties, including yield strength, hardness, modulus, ultimate tensile strength, elongation, and average hardness under dynamic and quasi-static conditions, alongside auxiliary computational properties. The comparison highlights the strengths of hierarchical and deep modeling approaches in handling heteroscedastic, heterotopic, and incomplete data commonly encountered in materials informatics. Our findings illustrate that DGP infused with machine learning-based prior outperform other surrogates by effectively capturing inter-property correlations and input-dependent uncertainty. This enhanced predictive accuracy positions advanced surrogate models as powerful tools for robust and data-efficient materials design.


Digital twin for virtual sensing of ferry quays via a Gaussian Process Latent Force Model

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Ferry quays experience rapid deterioration due to their exposure to harsh maritime environments and ferry impacts. Vibration-based structural health monitoring offers a valuable approach to assessing structural integrity and understanding the structural implications of these impacts. However, practical limitations often restrict sensor placement at critical locations. Consequently, virtual sensing techniques become essential for establishing a Digital Twin and estimating the structural response. This study investigates the application of the Gaussian Process Latent Force Model (GPLFM) for virtual sensing on the Magerholm ferry quay, combining in-operation experimental data collected during a ferry impact with a detailed physics-based model. The proposed Physics-Encoded Machine Learning model integrates a reduced-order structural model with a data-driven GPLFM representing the unknown impact forces via their modal contributions. Significant challenges are addressed for the development of the Digital Twin of the ferry quay, including unknown impact characteristics (location, direction, intensity), time-varying boundary conditions, and sparse sensor configurations. Results show that the GPLFM provides accurate acceleration response estimates at most locations, even under simplifying modeling assumptions such as linear time-invariant behavior during the impact phase. Lower accuracy was observed at locations in the impact zone. A numerical study was conducted to explore an optimal real-world sensor placement strategy using a Backward Sequential Sensor Placement approach. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the influence of sensor types, sampling frequencies, and incorrectly assumed damping ratios. The results suggest that the GP latent forces can help accommodate modeling and measurement uncertainties, maintaining acceptable estimation accuracy across scenarios.


Preparing for the Intelligence Explosion

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

AI that can accelerate research could drive a century of technological progress over just a few years. During such a period, new technological or political developments will raise consequential and hard-to-reverse decisions, in rapid succession. We call these developments grand challenges. These challenges include new weapons of mass destruction, AI-enabled autocracies, races to grab offworld resources, and digital beings worthy of moral consideration, as well as opportunities to dramatically improve quality of life and collective decision-making. We argue that these challenges cannot always be delegated to future AI systems, and suggest things we can do today to meaningfully improve our prospects. AGI preparedness is therefore not just about ensuring that advanced AI systems are aligned: we should be preparing, now, for the disorienting range of developments an intelligence explosion would bring.


MODS: Multi-source Observations Conditional Diffusion Model for Meteorological State Downscaling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate acquisition of high-resolution surface meteorological conditions is critical for forecasting and simulating meteorological variables. Directly applying spatial interpolation methods to derive meteorological values at specific locations from low-resolution grid fields often yields results that deviate significantly from the actual conditions. Existing downscaling methods primarily rely on the coupling relationship between geostationary satellites and ERA5 variables as a condition. However, using brightness temperature data from geostationary satellites alone fails to comprehensively capture all the changes in meteorological variables in ERA5 maps. To address this limitation, we can use a wider range of satellite data to make more full use of its inversion effects on various meteorological variables, thus producing more realistic results across different meteorological variables. To further improve the accuracy of downscaling meteorological variables at any location, we propose the Multi-source Observation Down-Scaling Model (MODS). It is a conditional diffusion model that fuses data from multiple geostationary satellites GridSat, polar-orbiting satellites (AMSU-A, HIRS, and MHS), and topographic data (GEBCO), as conditions, and is pre-trained on the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. During training, latent features from diverse conditional inputs are extracted separately and fused into ERA5 maps via a multi-source cross-attention module. By exploiting the inversion relationships between reanalysis data and multi-source atmospheric variables, MODS generates atmospheric states that align more closely with real-world conditions. During sampling, MODS enhances downscaling consistency by incorporating low-resolution ERA5 maps and station-level meteorological data as guidance. Experimental results demonstrate that MODS achieves higher fidelity when downscaling ERA5 maps to a 6.25 km resolution.


PIPE: Physics-Informed Position Encoding for Alignment of Satellite Images and Time Series

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multimodal time series forecasting is foundational in various fields, such as utilizing satellite imagery and numerical data for predicting typhoons in climate science. However, existing multimodal approaches primarily focus on utilizing text data to help time series forecasting, leaving the visual data in existing time series datasets untouched. Furthermore, it is challenging for models to effectively capture the physical information embedded in visual data, such as satellite imagery's temporal and geospatial context, which extends beyond images themselves. To address this gap, we propose physics-informed positional e ncoding ( PIPE), a lightweight method that embeds physical information into vision language models (VLMs). PIPE introduces two key innovations: (1) a physics-informed positional indexing scheme for mapping physics to positional IDs, and (2) a variant-frequency positional encoding mechanism for encoding frequency information of physical variables and sequential order of tokens within the embedding space. By preserving both the physical information and sequential order information, PIPE significantly improves multimodal alignment and forecasting accuracy. Through the experiments on the most representative and the largest open-sourced satellite image dataset, PIPE achieves state-of-the-art performance in both deep learning forecasting and climate domain methods, demonstrating superiority across benchmarks, including a 12% improvement in typhoon intensity forecasting over prior works. Our code is provided in the supplementary material.


Mass-Adaptive Admittance Control for Robotic Manipulators

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Handling objects with unknown or changing masses is a common challenge in robotics, often leading to errors or instability if the control system cannot adapt in real-time. In this paper, we present a novel approach that enables a six-degrees-of-freedom robotic manipulator to reliably follow waypoints while automatically estimating and compensating for unknown payload weight. Our method integrates an admittance control framework with a mass estimator, allowing the robot to dynamically update an excitation force to compensate for the payload mass. This strategy mitigates end-effector sagging and preserves stability when handling objects of unknown weights. We experimentally validated our approach in a challenging pick-and-place task on a shelf with a crossbar, improved accuracy in reaching waypoints and compliant motion compared to a baseline admittance-control scheme. By safely accommodating unknown payloads, our work enhances flexibility in robotic automation and represents a significant step forward in adaptive control for uncertain environments.


A Data-Integrated Framework for Learning Fractional-Order Nonlinear Dynamical Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents a data-integrated framework for learning the dynamics of fractional-order nonlinear systems in both discrete-time and continuous-time settings. The proposed framework consists of two main steps. In the first step, input-output experiments are designed to generate the necessary datasets for learning the system dynamics, including the fractional order, the drift vector field, and the control vector field. In the second step, these datasets, along with the memory-dependent property of fractional-order systems, are used to estimate the system's fractional order. The drift and control vector fields are then reconstructed using orthonormal basis functions. To validate the proposed approach, the algorithm is applied to four benchmark fractional-order systems. The results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed framework in learning the system dynamics accurately . Finally, the same datasets are used to learn equivalent integer-order models. The numerical comparisons demonstrate that fractional-order models better capture long-range dependencies, highlighting the limitations of integer-order representations.


Booster Gym: An End-to-End Reinforcement Learning Framework for Humanoid Robot Locomotion

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advancements in reinforcement learning (RL) have led to significant progress in humanoid robot locomotion, simplifying the design and training of motion policies in simulation. However, the numerous implementation details make transferring these policies to real-world robots a challenging task. To address this, we have developed a comprehensive code framework that covers the entire process from training to deployment, incorporating common RL training methods, domain randomization, reward function design, and solutions for handling parallel structures. This library is made available as a community resource, with detailed descriptions of its design and experimental results. We validate the framework on the Booster T1 robot, demonstrating that the trained policies seamlessly transfer to the physical platform, enabling capabilities such as omnidirectional walking, disturbance resistance, and terrain adaptability. We hope this work provides a convenient tool for the robotics community, accelerating the development of humanoid robots. The code can be found in https://github.com/BoosterRobotics/booster_gym.


Efficient and Real-Time Motion Planning for Robotics Using Projection-Based Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

-- Generating motions for robots interacting with objects of various shapes is a complex challenge, further complicated by the robot's geometry and multiple desired behaviors. While current robot programming tools (such as inverse kinematics, collision avoidance, and manipulation planning) often treat these problems as constrained optimization, many existing solvers focus on specific problem domains or do not exploit geometric constraints effectively. We propose an efficient first-order method, Augmented Lagrangian Spectral Projected Gradient Descent (ALSPG), which leverages geometric projections via Euclidean projections, Minkowski sums, and basis functions. We show that by using geometric constraints rather than full constraints and gradients, ALSPG significantly improves real-time performance. Compared to second-order methods like iLQR, ALSPG remains competitive in the unconstrained case. We validate our method through toy examples and extensive simulations, and demonstrate its effectiveness on a 7-axis Franka robot, a 6-axis P-Rob robot and a 1:10 scale car in real-world experiments. Source codes, experimental data and videos are available on the project webpage: https://sites.google.com/view/alspg-oc


Predicting Onflow Parameters Using Transfer Learning for Domain and Task Adaptation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Determining onflow parameters is crucial from the perspectives of wind tunnel testing and regular flight and wind turbine operations. These parameters have traditionally been predicted via direct measurements which might lead to challenges in case of sensor faults. Alternatively, a data-driven prediction model based on surface pressure data can be used to determine these parameters. It is essential that such predictors achieve close to real-time learning as dictated by practical applications such as monitoring wind tunnel operations or learning the variations in aerodynamic performance of aerospace and wind energy systems. To overcome the challenges caused by changes in the data distribution as well as in adapting to a new prediction task, we propose a transfer learning methodology to predict the onflow parameters, specifically angle of attack and onflow speed. It requires first training a convolutional neural network (ConvNet) model offline for the core prediction task, then freezing the weights of this model except the selected layers preceding the output node, and finally executing transfer learning by retraining these layers. A demonstration of this approach is provided using steady CFD analysis data for an airfoil for i) domain adaptation where transfer learning is performed with data from a target domain having different data distribution than the source domain and ii) task adaptation where the prediction task is changed. Further exploration on the influence of noisy data, performance on an extended domain, and trade studies varying sampling sizes and architectures are provided. Results successfully demonstrate the potential of the approach for adaptation to changing data distribution, domain extension, and task update while the application for noisy data is concluded to be not as effective.