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The Bayesian Reflex: Online Learning as the Autonomic Nervous System of Modern and Future AI

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This chapter introduces the Bayesian reflex -- an analogy with the autonomic nervous system -- as a unifying framework for online learning in AI. Bayesian online algorithms automatically maintain equilibrium in dynamic environments via three mechanisms: belief maintenance through probabilistic representations, sequential updating via Bayes' theorem, and uncertainty-driven action balancing exploration and exploitation. We survey online Bayesian methods, highlighting two computational principles: the look-up table principle for sequential inference in function space, and the ellipsoidal decomposition framework for nearly exact i.i.d. sampling from arbitrary posteriors. These principles are generalized across dynamic emulation, nonparametric state-space models, circular time series, inverse regression for climate model evaluation, and deep architectures via Recursive Gaussian Processes. Decision-making is explored via Thompson sampling and restless bandits. We extend the framework to assess infinite series convergence (applied to climate dynamics and the Riemann Hypothesis), model prime number distributions leading to the discovery of 184 strong Mersenne prime candidates, detect stationarity, and characterize point processes. The Bayesian reflex provides a foundational infrastructure for adaptive AI that continuously learns in a complex world.


Shark lasers could help save vulnerable species

Popular Science

More information Adding us as a Preferred Source in Google by using this link indicates that you would like to see more of our content in Google News results. It is estimated that fewer than 2,500 mature Speartooth sharks remain in the wild. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. Combining lasers and sharks may sound like a bad idea, but marine ecologists are banking on it to help save some of the planet's most threatened species. By merging optical technology and geochemistry, a group of researchers in Australia are gaining far more accurate information on the snub-nosed speartooth shark's () age, as well as the health of its environment.


Aiper EcoSurfer S2 review: Mostly hands-off pool cleaning that works

PCWorld

When you purchase through links in our articles, we may earn a small commission. Aiper's EcoSurfer 2 is a skimmer on the slow side, but it makes up for speed shortcomings with outstanding longevity. Aiper's EcoSurfer 2 is a skimmer on the slow side, but it makes up for speed shortcomings with outstanding longevity. Roving pool surface skimmers are a surprisingly consistent category in the aquatic robotics space, typically featuring solar-powered, fully autonomous operation that you can drop in the pool and forget about for weeks. With its EcoSurfer S2, Aiper refreshes its skimmer design, boosts battery life, and improves intelligence. And while most pool owners can probably get by without a surface skimmer, it's a strong candidate for purchase if the surface of your pool is prone to collecting a lot of floating debris.


Mean-Field Path-Integral Diffusion: From Samples to Interacting Agents

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Independent sample generation is the prevailing paradigm in modern diffusion-based generative models of AI. We ask a different question: can samples coordinate through shared population statistics to transport probability mass more efficiently? We introduce Mean-Field Path-Integral Diffusion (MF-PID), a framework in which samples are promoted to interacting agents whose drift depends self-consistently on the evolving population density. We identify two analytically tractable regimes: a Linear-Quadratic-Gaussian (LQG) benchmark in which the infinite-dimensional mean-field system reduces to a finite set of Riccati and linear ODEs, and a Gaussian-mixture regime governed by a piecewise-constant protocol that preserves closed-form solvability. For a quadratic interaction potential with schedule βt and zero base drift we prove that the self-consistent MF guidance is the exact linear interpolant between initial and target global means -- a result that holds for arbitrary initial and target densities and any βt. Applied to demand-response control of energy systems, where agents aggregated into an ensemble are energy consumers (e.g. The energy saving is independent of the number of zones per building (d = 1-32 tested), confirming that the linear guidance formula broadcasts a single d-vector with O(d) communication and grows mildly in compute (sub-cubically for d 32, asymptotically O(d3) for d 1). Introduction Generative AI has been transformed by diffusion models, which frame sample generation as a stochastic process steered from noise to data [1-3]. A key structural feature of these models -- shared with other generative models, e.g. Similarly, stochastic optimal transport (SOT) and Schrödinger bridge formulations [6-8] cast distribution matching as an independent-particle path optimization, yielding tractable convolutions of Green functions but discarding inter-particle information; stochastic interpolants [9] construct flexible transport bridges between arbitrary densities via tunable continuous-time stochastic processes, recovering the Schrödinger bridge as a special limit -- again in an independent-particle framework.


Provable and scalable quantum Gaussian processes for quantum learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Despite rapid recent advances in quantum machine learning, the field is in many ways stuck. Existing approaches can exhibit serious limitations, and we still lack learning frameworks that are simple, interpretable, scalable, and naturally suited to quantum data. To address this, here we introduce quantum Gaussian processes, a Bayesian framework for learning from quantum systems through priors over unknown quantum transformations. We show that, under suitable conditions, unitary quantum stochastic processes define Gaussian processes, thereby enabling regression, classification, and Bayesian optimization directly on quantum data. The key ingredient in this framework is sufficient knowledge of a quantum process's structure and symmetries to define an informative prior through its corresponding quantum kernel, effectively injecting a strong, physics-informed inductive bias into the learning model. We then prove that matchgate, or free-fermionic, evolutions give rise to provable and scalable quantum Gaussian processes, providing the first family in our framework where the unknown unitary acts non-trivially on all qubits. Finally, we demonstrate accurate long-range extrapolation, phase-diagram learning in many-body systems, and sample-efficient Bayesian optimization in a quantum sensing task. Our results identify quantum Gaussian processes as a promising route toward simpler and more structured forms of quantum learning.


SPLICE: Latent Diffusion over JEPA Embeddings for Conformal Time-Series Inpainting

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Generative models for time-series imputation achieve strong reconstruction accuracy, yet provide no finite-sample reliability guarantees, a critical limitation in power systems where imputed values inform dispatch and planning. We introduce SPLICE (Self-supervised Predictive Latent Inpainting with Conformal Envelopes), a modular framework coupling latent generative imputation with distribution-free, online-adaptive prediction intervals. A JEPA encoder maps daily load segments into a 64-dimensional latent space; a conditional latent bridge with four sampling modes generates candidate gap trajectories; an hourly-conditioned decoder maps back to signal space; and Adaptive Conformal Inference (ACI) wraps the output with coverage-guaranteed prediction bands. The flow-matching variant achieves comparable quality to DDIM in 5--10 ODE steps (5-10x speedup). On thirteen load datasets (nine proprietary, three UCI Electricity, ETTh1), SPLICE achieves the lowest mean Load-only MSE (0.056), winning 9/12 non-degenerate datasets at 91-day gaps and 18/32 across all gap lengths vs. five established baselines, and produces the best CRPS (0.161, -18.3% vs. the strongest competitor). ACI delivers 93--95% empirical coverage, correcting under-coverage failures of up to 7.5 pp observed with static conformal prediction. A pooled JEPA encoder trained on nine feeds transfers to four unseen domains, matching or exceeding per-dataset oracles with only a quick bridge fine-tuning.


Russia hammers targets across Ukraine overnight

Al Jazeera

What are Russia's gains from the Iran war? 'We are not losers; we are winners' Russia has continued heavy attacks on Ukraine for the past 24 hours, with several coming overnight on Thursday and in the early hours of Friday. At least one person has been killed and several have been injured. A Russian drone attack overnight damaged port infrastructure in Ukraine's southern Odesa region and wounded two people in the Black Sea port city of Odesa, regional Governor Oleh Kiper said on Friday morning. Two high-rise residential buildings were damaged in the attack, which destroyed apartments and caused fires, Kiper wrote on the Telegram messaging app. "This night, Russia again massively attacked the civilian infrastructure of the Odesa region: two people were injured," he said.


Safe Policy Improvement by Minimizing Robust Baseline Regret

Neural Information Processing Systems

An important problem in sequential decision-making under uncertainty is to use limited data to compute a safe policy, which is guaranteed to outperform a given baseline strategy. In this paper, we develop and analyze a new model-based approach that computes a safe policy, given an inaccurate model of the system's dynamics and guarantees on the accuracy of this model. The new robust method uses this model to directly minimize the (negative) regret w.r.t. the baseline policy. Contrary to existing approaches, minimizing the regret allows one to improve the baseline policy in states with accurate dynamics and to seamlessly fall back to the baseline policy, otherwise. We show that our formulation is NP-hard and propose a simple approximate algorithm. Our empirical results on several domains further show that even the simple approximate algorithm can outperform standard approaches.


Efficient Adaptation of Large Vision Transformer via Adapter Re-Composing

Neural Information Processing Systems

The advent of high-capacity pre-trained models has revolutionized problem-solving in computer vision, shifting the focus from training task-specific models to adapting pre-trained models. Consequently, effectively adapting large pre-trained models to downstream tasks in an efficient manner has become a prominent research area. Existing solutions primarily concentrate on designing lightweight adapters and their interaction with pre-trained models, with the goal of minimizing the number of parameters requiring updates. In this study, we propose a novel Adapter ReComposing (ARC) strategy that addresses efficient pre-trained model adaptation from a fresh perspective. Our approach considers the reusability of adaptation parameters and introduces a parameter-sharing scheme. Specifically, we leverage symmetric down-/up-projections to construct bottleneck operations, which are shared across layers.


Sequential Inference for Gaussian Processes: A Signal Processing Perspective

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The proliferation of capable and efficient machine learning (ML) models marks one of the strongest methodological shifts in signal processing (SP) in its nearly 100-year history. ML models support the development of SP systems that represent complex, nonlinear relationships with high predictive accuracy. Adapting these models often requires sequential inference, which differs both theoretically and methodologically from the usual paradigm of ML, where data are often assumed independent and identically distributed. Gaussian processes (GPs) are a flexible yet principled framework for modeling random functions, and they have become increasingly relevant to SP as statistical and ML methods assume a more prominent role. We provide a self-contained, tutorial-style overview of GPs, with a particular focus on recent methodological advances in sequential, incremental, or streaming inference. We introduce these techniques from a signal-processing perspective while bridging them to recent advances in ML. Many of the developments we survey have direct applications to state-space modeling, sequential regression and forecasting, anomaly detection in time series, sequential Bayesian optimization, adaptive and active sensing, and sequential detection and decision-making. By organizing these advances from a signal-processing perspective, we intend to equip practitioners with practical tools and a coherent roadmap for deploying sequential GP models in real-world systems.