In this paper we treat both forms of probabilistic inference, estimating marginal probabilities of the joint distribution and finding the most probable assignment, through a unified message-passing algorithm architecture. We generalize the Belief Propagation (BP) algorithms of sum-product and max-product and tree-rewaighted (TRW) sum and max product algorithms (TRBP) and introduce a new set of convergent algorithms based on "convex-free-energy" and Linear-Programming (LP) relaxation as a zero-temprature of a convex-free-energy. The main idea of this work arises from taking a general perspective on the existing BP and TRBP algorithms while observing that they all are reductions from the basic optimization formula of $f + \sum_i h_i$ where the function $f$ is an extended-valued, strictly convex but non-smooth and the functions $h_i$ are extended-valued functions (not necessarily convex). We use tools from convex duality to present the "primal-dual ascent" algorithm which is an extension of the Bregman successive projection scheme and is designed to handle optimization of the general type $f + \sum_i h_i$. Mapping the fractional-free-energy variational principle to this framework introduces the "norm-product" message-passing. Special cases include sum-product and max-product (BP algorithms) and the TRBP algorithms. When the fractional-free-energy is set to be convex (convex-free-energy) the norm-product is globally convergent for estimating of marginal probabilities and for approximating the LP-relaxation. We also introduce another branch of the norm-product, the "convex-max-product". The convex-max-product is convergent (unlike max-product) and aims at solving the LP-relaxation.

Structural equation models and Bayesian networks have been widely used to study causal relationships between continuous variables. Recently, a non-Gaussian method called LiNGAM was proposed to discover such causal models and has been extended in various directions. An important problem with LiNGAM is that the results are affected by the random sampling of the data as with any statistical method. Thus, some analysis of the statistical reliability or confidence level should be conducted. A common method to evaluate a confidence level is a bootstrap method. However, a confidence level computed by ordinary bootstrap method is known to be biased as a probability-value ($p$-value) of hypothesis testing. In this paper, we propose a new procedure to apply an advanced bootstrap method called multiscale bootstrap to compute confidence levels, i.e., p-values, of LiNGAM outputs. The multiscale bootstrap method gives unbiased $p$-values with asymptotic much higher accuracy. Experiments on artificial data demonstrate the utility of our approach.

Preventive maintenance schedules occurring in industry are often suboptimal with regard to maintenance coal-location, loss-of-production costs and availability. We describe the implementation and deployment of a software decision support tool for the maintenance planning of gas turbines, with the goal of reducing the direct maintenance costs and the often costly production losses during maintenance downtime. The optimization problem is formally defined, and we argue that the feasibility version is NP-complete. We outline a heuristic algorithm that can quickly solve the problem for practical purposes and validate the approach on a real-world scenario based on an oil production facility. We also compare the performance of our algorithm with results from using integer programming, and discuss the deployment of the application. The experimental results indicate that downtime reductions up to 65% can be achieved, compared to traditional preventive maintenance. In addition, the use of our tool is expected to improve availability with up to 1% and reduce the number of planned maintenance days by 12%. Compared to a integer programming approach, our algorithm is not optimal, but is much faster and produces results which are useful in practice. Our test results and SIT AB’s estimates based< on operational use both indicate that significant savings can be achieved by using our software tool, compared to maintenance plans with fixed intervals.

We outline initial concepts for an immune inspired algorithm to evaluate and predict oil price time series data. The proposed solution evolves a short term pool of trackers dynamically, with each member attempting to map trends and anticipate future price movements. Successful trackers feed into a long term memory pool that can generalise across repeating trend patterns. The resulting sequence of trackers, ordered in time, can be used as a forecasting tool. Examination of the pool of evolving trackers also provides valuable insight into the properties of the crude oil market.

This work-in-progress provides a preliminary cognitive investigation of how the external visualization of the Ternary diagram (TD) might be used as an underlying model for exploring the representation of simple 3D cuboids according to the theory of Conceptual Spaces. Gärdenfors introduced geometrical entities, known as conceptual spaces, for modeling concepts. He considered multidimensional spaces equipped with a range of similarity measures (such as metrics) and guided by criteria and mechanisms as a geometrical model for concept formation and management. Our work is inspired by the conceptual spaces approach and takes ternary diagrams as its underlying conceptual model. The main motivation for our work is twofold. First, Ternary Diagrams are powerful conceptual representations that have a solid historical and mathematical foundation. Second, the notion of overlaying an Information- Entropy function on a ternary diagram can lead to new insights into applications of reasoning about shape and other cognitive processes.

Until recent years, the development of real-world humanoid robotics applications has been hampered by a lack of available mobile computational power. Unlike wheeled platforms, which can reasonably easily be expected to carry a payload of computers and batteries, humanoid robots couple a need for complex control over many degrees of freedom with a form where any significant payload complicates the balancing and control problem itself. In the last few years, however, an significant number of options for embedded processing suitable for humanoid robots have appeared (e.g. miniaturized motherboards such as beagle boards), along with ever-smaller and more powerful battery technology. Part of the drive for these embedded hardware breakthroughs has been the increasing demand by consumers for more sophisticated mobile phone applications, and these modern devices now supply much in the way of sensor technology that is also potentially of use to roboticists (e.g. accelerometers, cameras, GPS). In this paper, we explore the use of modern mobile phones as a vehicle for the sophisticated AI necessary for autonomous humanoid robots.

The paper investigates parameterized approximate message-passing schemes that are based on bounded inference and are inspired by Pearls belief propagation algorithm (BP). We start with the bounded inference mini-clustering algorithm and then move to the iterative scheme called Iterative Join-Graph Propagation (IJGP), that combines both iteration and bounded inference. Algorithm IJGP belongs to the class of Generalized Belief Propagation algorithms, a framework that allowed connections with approximate algorithms from statistical physics and is shown empirically to surpass the performance of mini-clustering and belief propagation, as well as a number of other state-of-the-art algorithms on several classes of networks. We also provide insight into the accuracy of iterative BP and IJGP by relating these algorithms to well known classes of constraint propagation schemes.

Good old on-line back-propagation for plain multi-layer perceptrons yields a very low 0.35% error rate on the famous MNIST handwritten digits benchmark. All we need to achieve this best result so far are many hidden layers, many neurons per layer, numerous deformed training images, and graphics cards to greatly speed up learning.

Adaptive control problems are notoriously difficult to solve even in the presence of plant-specific controllers. One way to by-pass the intractable computation of the optimal policy is to restate the adaptive control as the minimization of the relative entropy of a controller that ignores the true plant dynamics from an informed controller. The solution is given by the Bayesian control rule-a set of equations characterizing a stochastic adaptive controller for the class of possible plant dynamics. Here, the Bayesian control rule is applied to derive BCR-MDP, a controller to solve undiscounted Markov decision processes with finite state and action spaces and unknown dynamics. In particular, we derive a non-parametric conjugate prior distribution over the policy space that encapsulates the agent's whole relevant history and we present a Gibbs sampler to draw random policies from this distribution. Preliminary results show that BCR-MDP successfully avoids sub-optimal limit cycles due to its built-in mechanism to balance exploration versus exploitation.

In this paper, research on AI based modeling technique to optimize development of new alloys with necessitated improvements in properties and chemical mixture over existing alloys as per functional requirements of product is done. The current research work novels AI in lieu of predictions to establish association between material and product customary. Advanced computational simulation techniques like CFD, FEA interrogations are made viable to authenticate product dynamics in context to experimental investigations. Accordingly, the current research is focused towards binding relationships between material design and product design domains. The input to feed forward back propagation prediction network model constitutes of material design features. Parameters relevant to product design strategies are furnished as target outputs. The outcomes of ANN shows good sign of correlation between material and product design domains. The study enriches a new path to illustrate material factors at the time of new product development.