This paper introduces AntNet, a novel approach to the adaptive learning of routing tables in communications networks. AntNet is a distributed, mobile agents based Monte Carlo system that was inspired by recent work on the ant colony metaphor for solving optimization problems. AntNet's agents concurrently explore the network and exchange collected information. The communication among the agents is indirect and asynchronous, mediated by the network itself. This form of communication is typical of social insects and is called stigmergy. We compare our algorithm with six state-of-the-art routing algorithms coming from the telecommunications and machine learning fields. The algorithms' performance is evaluated over a set of realistic testbeds. We run many experiments over real and artificial IP datagram networks with increasing number of nodes and under several paradigmatic spatial and temporal traffic distributions. Results are very encouraging. AntNet showed superior performance under all the experimental conditions with respect to its competitors. We analyze the main characteristics of the algorithm and try to explain the reasons for its superiority.

We develop a coherent framework for integrative simultaneous analysis of the exploration-exploitation and model order selection trade-offs. We improve over our preceding results on the same subject (Seldin et al., 2011) by combining PAC-Bayesian analysis with Bernstein-type inequality for martingales. Such a combination is also of independent interest for studies of multiple simultaneously evolving martingales.

Efficient use of multiple batteries is a practical problem with wide and growing application. The problem can be cast as a planning problem. We describe the approach we have adopted to modelling and solving this problem, seen as a Markov Decision Problem, building effective policies for battery switching in the face of stochastic load profiles. Our solution exploits and adapts several existing techniques from the planning literature and leads to the construction of policies that significantly outperform those that are currently in use and the best published solutions to the battery management problem. We achieve solutions that achieve more than 99\% efficiency compared with the theoretical limit and do so with far fewer battery switches than existing policies. We describe the approach in detail and provide empirical evaluation demonstrating its effectiveness.

This paper investigates feature level fusion for enhancing fault detection from vibration signals in an ocean turbine. Changes in vibration signatures from such rotating machinery typically indicate the presence of a problem such as a shift in its orientation or mechanical impact from its environment. We applied feature level fusion to vibration data acquired from two accelerometers attached to a box fan, and then assessed the abilities of twelve well known machine learners to detect changes in state from the raw accelerometer data and from the fused data. Analysis of the performance of these classifiers showed an overall performance improvement in all twelve classifiers in detecting the state of the fan from the fused data versus from the data from the two individual sensor channels.

Joint analysis of data from multiple sources has the potential to improve our understanding of the underlying structures in complex data sets. For instance, in restaurant recommendation systems, recommendations can be based on rating histories of customers. In addition to rating histories, customers' social networks (e.g., Facebook friendships) and restaurant categories information (e.g., Thai or Italian) can also be used to make better recommendations. The task of fusing data, however, is challenging since data sets can be incomplete and heterogeneous, i.e., data consist of both matrices, e.g., the person by person social network matrix or the restaurant by category matrix, and higher-order tensors, e.g., the "ratings" tensor of the form restaurant by meal by person. In this paper, we are particularly interested in fusing data sets with the goal of capturing their underlying latent structures. We formulate this problem as a coupled matrix and tensor factorization (CMTF) problem where heterogeneous data sets are modeled by fitting outer-product models to higher-order tensors and matrices in a coupled manner. Unlike traditional approaches solving this problem using alternating algorithms, we propose an all-at-once optimization approach called CMTF-OPT (CMTF-OPTimization), which is a gradient-based optimization approach for joint analysis of matrices and higher-order tensors. We also extend the algorithm to handle coupled incomplete data sets. Using numerical experiments, we demonstrate that the proposed all-at-once approach is more accurate than the alternating least squares approach.

While loopy belief propagation (LBP) performs reasonably well for inference in some Gaussian graphical models with cycles, its performance is unsatisfactory for many others. In particular for some models LBP does not converge, and in general when it does converge, the computed variances are incorrect (except for cycle-free graphs for which belief propagation (BP) is non-iterative and exact). In this paper we propose {\em feedback message passing} (FMP), a message-passing algorithm that makes use of a special set of vertices (called a {\em feedback vertex set} or {\em FVS}) whose removal results in a cycle-free graph. In FMP, standard BP is employed several times on the cycle-free subgraph excluding the FVS while a special message-passing scheme is used for the nodes in the FVS. The computational complexity of exact inference is $O(k^2n)$, where $k$ is the number of feedback nodes, and $n$ is the total number of nodes. When the size of the FVS is very large, FMP is intractable. Hence we propose {\em approximate FMP}, where a pseudo-FVS is used instead of an FVS, and where inference in the non-cycle-free graph obtained by removing the pseudo-FVS is carried out approximately using LBP. We show that, when approximate FMP converges, it yields exact means and variances on the pseudo-FVS and exact means throughout the remainder of the graph. We also provide theoretical results on the convergence and accuracy of approximate FMP. In particular, we prove error bounds on variance computation. Based on these theoretical results, we design efficient algorithms to select a pseudo-FVS of bounded size. The choice of the pseudo-FVS allows us to explicitly trade off between efficiency and accuracy. Experimental results show that using a pseudo-FVS of size no larger than $\log(n)$, this procedure converges much more often, more quickly, and provides more accurate results than LBP on the entire graph.

Controlling sensori-motor systems in higher animals or complex robots is a challenging combinatorial problem, because many sensory signals need to be simultaneously coordinated into a broad behavioural spectrum. To rapidly interact with the environment, this control needs to be fast and adaptive. Current robotic solutions operate with limited autonomy and are mostly restricted to few behavioural patterns. Here we introduce chaos control as a new strategy to generate complex behaviour of an autonomous robot. In the presented system, 18 sensors drive 18 motors via a simple neural control circuit, thereby generating 11 basic behavioural patterns (e.g., orienting, taxis, self-protection, various gaits) and their combinations. The control signal quickly and reversibly adapts to new situations and additionally enables learning and synaptic long-term storage of behaviourally useful motor responses. Thus, such neural control provides a powerful yet simple way to self-organize versatile behaviours in autonomous agents with many degrees of freedom.

This project describes the electricity demand and energy consumption management system and its application to Southern Peru smelter. It is composed of an hourly demand-forecasting module and of a simulation component for a plant electrical system. The first module was done using dynamic neural networks with backpropagation training algorithm; it is used to predict the electric power demanded every hour, with an error percentage below of 1%. This information allows efficient management of energy peak demands before this happen, distributing the raise of electric load to other hours or improving those equipments that increase the demand. The simulation module is based in advanced estimation techniques, such as: parametric estimation, neural network modeling, statistic regression and previously developed models, which simulates the electric behavior of the smelter plant. These modules facilitate electricity demand and consumption proper planning, because they allow knowing the behavior of the hourly demand and the consumption patterns of the plant, including the bill components, but also energy deficiencies and opportunities for improvement, based on analysis of information about equipments, processes and production plans, as well as maintenance programs. Finally the results of its application in Southern Peru smelter are presented.

We explore self-organizing strategies for role assignment in a foraging task carried out by a colony of artificial agents. Our strategies are inspired by various mechanisms of division of labor (polyethism) observed in eusocial insects like ants, termites, or bees. Specifically we instantiate models of caste polyethism and age or temporal polyethism to evaluated the benefits to foraging in a dynamic environment. Our experiment is directly related to the exploration/exploitation trade of in machine learning.

Nonparametric methods are widely applicable to statistical inference problems, since they rely on a few modeling assumptions. In this context, the fresh look advocated here permeates benefits from variable selection and compressive sampling, to robustify nonparametric regression against outliers - that is, data markedly deviating from the postulated models. A variational counterpart to least-trimmed squares regression is shown closely related to an L0-(pseudo)norm-regularized estimator, that encourages sparsity in a vector explicitly modeling the outliers. This connection suggests efficient solvers based on convex relaxation, which lead naturally to a variational M-type estimator equivalent to the least-absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso). Outliers are identified by judiciously tuning regularization parameters, which amounts to controlling the sparsity of the outlier vector along the whole robustification path of Lasso solutions. Reduced bias and enhanced generalization capability are attractive features of an improved estimator obtained after replacing the L0-(pseudo)norm with a nonconvex surrogate. The novel robust spline-based smoother is adopted to cleanse load curve data, a key task aiding operational decisions in the envisioned smart grid system. Computer simulations and tests on real load curve data corroborate the effectiveness of the novel sparsity-controlling robust estimators.