There is a huge and growing number of systems that depend on batteries for power supply, ranging from small mobile devices to large high-powered systems such as electrical substations. In most of these systems, there are significant user-benefits or engineering reasons to base the supply on multiple batteries, with load being switched between batteries by a control system. The key to efficient use of multiple batteries lies in the design of effective policies for the management of the switching of load between them. This paper describes work in which we show that automated planning can produce much more effective policies than other approaches to multiple battery load management in the literature.

We propose a framework that adds learning for improving plan selection in the popular BDI agent programming paradigm. In contrast with previous proposals, the approach given here is able to scale up well with the complexity of the agent's plan library. Technically, we develop a novel confidence measure which allows the agent to adjust its reliance on the learning dynamically, facilitating in principle infinitely many (re)learning phases. We demonstrate the benefits of the approach in an example controller for energy management.

Prediction models for multivariate spatio-temporal functions in geosciences are typically developed using supervised learning from attributes collected by remote sensing instruments collocated with the outcome variable provided at sparsely located sites. In such collocated data there are often large temporal gaps due to missing attribute values at sites where outcome labels are available. Our objective is to develop more accurate spatio-temporal predictors by using enlarged collocated data obtained by imputing missing attributes at time and locations where outcome labels are available. The proposed method for large gaps estimation in space and time (called LarGEST) exploits temporal correlation of attributes, correlations among multiple attributes collected at the same time and space, and spatial correlations among attributes from multiple sites. LarGEST outperformed alternative methods in imputing up to 80% of randomly missing observations at a synthetic spatio-temporal signal and at a model of fluoride content in a water distribution system. LarGEST was also applied for imputing 80% of nonrandom missing values in data from one of the most challenging Earth science problems related to aerosol properties. Using such enlarged data a predictor of aerosol optical depth is developed that was much more accurate than predictors based on alternative imputation methods when tested rigorously over entire continental US in year 2005.

Understanding extreme events, such as hurricanes or forest fires, is of paramount importance because of their adverse impacts on human beings. Such events often propagate in space and time. Predicting-even a few days in advance-what locations will get affected by the event tracks could benefit our society in many ways. Arguably, simulations from “first principles,” where underlying physics-based models are described by a system of equations, provide least reliable predictions for variables characterizing the dynamics of these extreme events. Data-driven model building has been recently emerging as a complementary approach that could learn the relationships between historically observed or simulated multiple, spatio-temporal ancillary variables and the dynamic behavior of extreme events of interest. While promising, the methodology for predictive learning from such complex data is still in its infancy. In this paper, we propose a dynamic networks-based methodology for in-advance prediction of the dynamic tracks of emerging extreme events. By associating a network model of the system with the known tracks, our method is capable of learning the recurrent network motifs that could be used as discriminatory signatures for the event's behavioral class. When applied to classifying the behavior of the hurricane tracks at their early formation stages in Western Africa region, our method is able to predict whether hurricane tracks will hit the land of the North Atlantic region at least 10-15 days lead lag time in advance with more than 90% accuracy using 10-fold cross-validation. To the best of our knowledge, no comparable methodology exists for solving this problem using data-driven models.

Distributed electricity producers, such as small wind farms and solar installations, pose several technical and economic challenges in Smart Grid design. One approach to addressing these challenges is through Broker Agents who buy electricity from distributed producers, and also sell electricity to consumers, via a Tariff Market--a new market mechanism where Broker Agents publish concurrent bid and ask prices. We investigate the learning of pricing strategies for an autonomous Broker Agent to profitably participate in a Tariff Market. We employ Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) and reinforcement learning. An important concern with this method is that even simple representations of the problem domain result in very large numbers of states in the MDP formulation because market prices can take nearly arbitrary real values. In this paper, we present the use of derived state space features, computed using statistics on Tariff Market prices and Broker Agent customer portfolios, to obtain a scalable state representation. We also contribute a set of pricing tactics that form building blocks in the learned Broker Agent strategy. We further present a Tariff Market simulation model based on real-world data and anticipated market dynamics. We use this model to obtain experimental results that show the learned strategy performing vastly better than a random strategy and significantly better than two other non-learning strategies.

Since the seminal work of Sampath et al. in 1996, despite the subsequent flourishing of techniques on diagnosis of discrete-event systems (DESs), the basic notions of fault and diagnosis have been remaining conceptually unchanged. Faults are defined at component level and diagnoses incorporate the occurrences of component faults within system evolutions: diagnosis is context-free. As this approach may be unsatisfactory for a complex DES, whose topology is organized in a hierarchy of abstractions, we propose to define different diagnosis rules for different subsystems in the hierarchy. Relevant fault patterns are specified as regular expressions on patterns of lower-level subsystems. Separation of concerns is achieved and the expressive power of diagnosis is enhanced: each subsystem has its proper set of diagnosis rules, which may or may not depend on the rules of other subsystems. Diagnosis is no longer anchored to components: it becomes context-sensitive. The approach yields seemingly contradictory but nonetheless possible scenarios: a subsystem can be normal despite the faulty behavior of a number of its components (positive paradox); also, it can be faulty despite the normal behavior of all its components (negative paradox).

Fault diagnosis and failure prognosis are essential techniques in improving the safety of many manufacturing systems. Therefore, on-line fault detection and isolation is one of the most important tasks in safety-critical and intelligent control systems. Computational intelligence techniques are being investigated as extension of the traditional fault diagnosis methods. This paper discusses the Temporal Neuro-Fuzzy Systems (TNFS) fault diagnosis within an application study of a manufacturing system. The key issues of finding a suitable structure for detecting and isolating ten realistic actuator faults are described. Within this framework, data-processing interactive software of simulation baptized NEFDIAG (NEuro Fuzzy DIAGnosis) version 1.0 is developed. This software devoted primarily to creation, training and test of a classification Neuro-Fuzzy system of industrial process failures. NEFDIAG can be represented like a special type of fuzzy perceptron, with three layers used to classify patterns and failures. The system selected is the workshop of SCIMAT clinker, cement factory in Algeria.

Purely data driven approaches for machine learning present difficulties when data is scarce relative to the complexity of the model or when the model is forced to extrapolate. On the other hand, purely mechanistic approaches need to identify and specify all the interactions in the problem at hand (which may not be feasible) and still leave the issue of how to parameterize the system. In this paper, we present a hybrid approach using Gaussian processes and differential equations to combine data driven modelling with a physical model of the system. We show how different, physically-inspired, kernel functions can be developed through sensible, simple, mechanistic assumptions about the underlying system. The versatility of our approach is illustrated with three case studies from motion capture, computational biology and geostatistics.

In this paper we address the problem of understanding the success of algorithms that organize patches according to graph-based metrics. Algorithms that analyze patches extracted from images or time series have led to state-of-the art techniques for classification, denoising, and the study of nonlinear dynamics. The main contribution of this work is to provide a theoretical explanation for the above experimental observations. Our approach relies on a detailed analysis of the commute time metric on prototypical graph models that epitomize the geometry observed in general patch graphs. We prove that a parametrization of the graph based on commute times shrinks the mutual distances between patches that correspond to rapid local changes in the signal, while the distances between patches that correspond to slow local changes expand. In effect, our results explain why the parametrization of the set of patches based on the eigenfunctions of the Laplacian can concentrate patches that correspond to rapid local changes, which would otherwise be shattered in the space of patches. While our results are based on a large sample analysis, numerical experimentations on synthetic and real data indicate that the results hold for datasets that are very small in practice.

This paper reports the outcome of the third in the series of biennial international planning competitions, held in association with the International Conference on AI Planning and Scheduling (AIPS) in 2002. In addition to describing the domains, the planners and the objectives of the competition, the paper includes analysis of the results. The results are analysed from several perspectives, in order to address the questions of comparative performance between planners, comparative difficulty of domains, the degree of agreement between planners about the relative difficulty of individual problem instances and the question of how well planners scale relative to one another over increasingly difficult problems. The paper addresses these questions through statistical analysis of the raw results of the competition, in order to determine which results can be considered to be adequately supported by the data. The paper concludes with a discussion of some challenges for the future of the competition series.