We present a joint message passing approach that combines belief propagation and the mean field approximation. Our analysis is based on the region-based free energy approximation method proposed by Yedidia et al. We show that the message passing fixed-point equations obtained with this combination correspond to stationary points of a constrained region-based free energy approximation. Moreover, we present a convergent implementation of these message passing fixedpoint equations provided that the underlying factor graph fulfills certain technical conditions. In addition, we show how to include hard constraints in the part of the factor graph corresponding to belief propagation. Finally, we demonstrate an application of our method to iterative channel estimation and decoding in an orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) system.

Efficient use of multiple batteries is a practical problem with wide and growing application. The problem can be cast as a planning problem under uncertainty. We describe the approach we have adopted to modelling and solving this problem, seen as a Markov Decision Problem, building effective policies for battery switching in the face of stochastic load profiles. Our solution exploits and adapts several existing techniques: planning for deterministic mixed discrete-continuous problems and Monte Carlo sampling for policy learning. The paper describes the development of planning techniques to allow solution of the non-linear continuous dynamic models capturing the battery behaviours. This approach depends on carefully handled discretisation of the temporal dimension. The construction of policies is performed using a classification approach and this idea offers opportunities for wider exploitation in other problems. The approach and its generality are described in the paper. Application of the approach leads to construction of policies that, in simulation, significantly outperform those that are currently in use and the best published solutions to the battery management problem. We achieve solutions that achieve more than 99% efficiency in simulation compared with the theoretical limit and do so with far fewer battery switches than existing policies. Behaviour of physical batteries does not exactly match the simulated models for many reasons, so to confirm that our theoretical results can lead to real measured improvements in performance we also conduct and report experiments using a physical test system. These results demonstrate that we can obtain 5%-15% improvement in lifetimes in the case of a two battery system.

We consider in this paper the formulation of approximate inference in Bayesian networks as a problem of exact inference on an approximate network that results from deleting edges (to reduce treewidth). We have shown in earlier work that deleting edges calls for introducing auxiliary network parameters to compensate for lost dependencies, and proposed intuitive conditions for determining these parameters. We have also shown that our method corresponds to IBP when enough edges are deleted to yield a polytree, and corresponds to some generalizations of IBP when fewer edges are deleted. In this paper, we propose a different criteria for determining auxiliary parameters based on optimizing the KL-divergence between the original and approximate networks. We discuss the relationship between the two methods for selecting parameters, shedding new light on IBP and its generalizations. We also discuss the application of our new method to approximating inference problems which are exponential in constrained treewidth, including MAP and nonmyopic value of information.

Inference for probabilistic graphical models is still very much a practical challenge in large domains. The commonly used and effective belief propagation (BP) algorithm and its generalizations often do not converge when applied to hard, real-life inference tasks. While it is widely recognized that the scheduling of messages in these algorithms may have significant consequences, this issue remains largely unexplored. In this work, we address the question of how to schedule messages for asynchronous propagation so that a fixed point is reached faster and more often. We first show that any reasonable asynchronous BP converges to a unique fixed point under conditions similar to those that guarantee convergence of synchronous BP. In addition, we show that the convergence rate of a simple round-robin schedule is at least as good as that of synchronous propagation. We then propose residual belief propagation (RBP), a novel, easy-to-implement, asynchronous propagation algorithm that schedules messages in an informed way, that pushes down a bound on the distance from the fixed point. Finally, we demonstrate the superiority of RBP over state-of-the-art methods for a variety of challenging synthetic and real-life problems: RBP converges significantly more often than other methods; and it significantly reduces running time until convergence, even when other methods converge.

Can one parallelize complex exploration exploitation tradeoffs? As an example, consider the problem of optimal high-throughput experimental design, where we wish to sequentially design batches of experiments in order to simultaneously learn a surrogate function mapping stimulus to response and identify the maximum of the function. We formalize the task as a multi-armed bandit problem, where the unknown payoff function is sampled from a Gaussian process (GP), and instead of a single arm, in each round we pull a batch of several arms in parallel. We develop GP-BUCB, a principled algorithm for choosing batches, based on the GP-UCB algorithm for sequential GP optimization. We prove a surprising result; as compared to the sequential approach, the cumulative regret of the parallel algorithm only increases by a constant factor independent of the batch size B. Our results provide rigorous theoretical support for exploiting parallelism in Bayesian global optimization. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on two real-world applications.

We propose directed time series regression, a new approach to estimating parameters of time-series models for use in certainty equivalent model predictive control. The approach combines merits of least squares regression and empirical optimization. Through a computational study involving a stochastic version of a well known inverted pendulum balancing problem, we demonstrate that directed time series regression can generate significant improvements in controller performance over either of the aforementioned alternatives.

Survey propagation (SP) is an exciting new technique that has been remarkably successful at solving very large hard combinatorial problems, such as determining the satisfiability of Boolean formulas. In a promising attempt at understanding the success of SP, it was recently shown that SP can be viewed as a form of belief propagation, computing marginal probabilities over certain objects called covers of a formula. This explanation was, however, shortly dismissed by experiments suggesting that non-trivial covers simply do not exist for large formulas. In this paper, we show that these experiments were misleading: not only do covers exist for large hard random formulas, SP is surprisingly accurate at computing marginals over these covers despite the existence of many cycles in the formulas. This re-opens a potentially simpler line of reasoning for understanding SP, in contrast to some alternative lines of explanation that have been proposed assuming covers do not exist.

The belief propagation (BP) algorithm is widely applied to perform approximate inference on arbitrary graphical models, in part due to its excellent empirical properties and performance. However, little is known theoretically about when this algorithm will perform well. Using recent analysis of convergence and stability properties in BP and new results on approximations in binary systems, we derive a bound on the error in BP's estimates for pairwise Markov random fields over discrete valued random variables. Our bound is relatively simple to compute, and compares favorably with a previous method of bounding the accuracy of BP.

Finding the most probable assignment (MAP) in a general graphical model is known to be NP hard but good approximations have been attained with max-product belief propagation (BP) and its variants. In particular, it is known that using BP on a single-cycle graph or tree reweighted BP on an arbitrary graph will give the MAP solution if the beliefs have no ties. In this paper we extend the setting under which BP can be used to provably extract the MAP. We define Convex BP as BP algorithms based on a convex free energy approximation and show that this class includes ordinary BP with single-cycle, tree reweighted BP and many other BP variants. We show that when there are no ties, fixed-points of convex max-product BP will provably give the MAP solution. We also show that convex sum-product BP at sufficiently small temperatures can be used to solve linear programs that arise from relaxing the MAP problem. Finally, we derive a novel condition that allows us to derive the MAP solution even if some of the convex BP beliefs have ties. In experiments, we show that our theorems allow us to find the MAP in many real-world instances of graphical models where exact inference using junction-tree is impossible.

Model-based Bayesian Reinforcement Learning (BRL) allows a found formalization of the problem of acting optimally while facing an unknown environment, i.e., avoiding the exploration-exploitation dilemma. However, algorithms explicitly addressing BRL suffer from such a combinatorial explosion that a large body of work relies on heuristic algorithms. This paper introduces BOLT, a simple and (almost) deterministic heuristic algorithm for BRL which is optimistic about the transition function. We analyze BOLT's sample complexity, and show that under certain parameters, the algorithm is near-optimal in the Bayesian sense with high probability. Then, experimental results highlight the key differences of this method compared to previous work.