This work proposes a way to align statistical modeling with decision making. We provide a method that propagates the uncertainty in predictive modeling to the uncertainty in operational cost, where operational cost is the amount spent by the practitioner in solving the problem. The method allows us to explore the range of operational costs associated with the set of reasonable statistical models, so as to provide a useful way for practitioners to understand uncertainty. To do this, the operational cost is cast as a regularization term in a learning algorithm's objective function, allowing either an optimistic or pessimistic view of possible costs, depending on the regularization parameter. From another perspective, if we have prior knowledge about the operational cost, for instance that it should be low, this knowledge can help to restrict the hypothesis space, and can help with generalization. We provide a theoretical generalization bound for this scenario. We also show that learning with operational costs is related to robust optimization.

We consider how selfish agents are likely to share revenues derived from maintaining connectivity between important network servers. We model a network where a failure of one node may disrupt communication between other nodes as a cooperative game called the vertex Connectivity Game (CG). In this game, each agent owns a vertex, and controls all the edges going to and from that vertex. A coalition of agents wins if it fully connects a certain subset of vertices in the graph, called the primary vertices. Power indices measure an agent's ability to affect the outcome of the game. We show that in our domain, such indices can be used to both determine the fair share of the revenues an agent is entitled to, and identify significant possible points of failure affecting the reliability of communication in the network. We show that in general graphs, calculating the Shapley and Banzhaf power indices is #P-complete, but suggest a polynomial algorithm for calculating them in trees. We also investigate finding stable payoff divisions of the revenues in CGs, captured by the game theoretic solution of the core, and its relaxations, the epsilon-core and least core. We show a polynomial algorithm for computing the core of a CG, but show that testing whether an imputation is in the epsilon-core is coNP-complete. Finally, we show that for trees, it is possible to test for epsilon-core imputations in polynomial time.

Bayesian Reinforcement Learning (RL) is capable of not only incorporating domain knowledge, but also solving the exploration-exploitation dilemma in a natural way. As Bayesian RL is intractable except for special cases, previous work has proposed several approximation methods. However, these methods are usually too sensitive to parameter values, and finding an acceptable parameter setting is practically impossible in many applications. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm that greedily approximates Bayesian RL to achieve robustness in parameter space. We show that for a desired learning behavior, our proposed algorithm has a polynomial sample complexity that is lower than those of existing algorithms. We also demonstrate that the proposed algorithm naturally outperforms other existing algorithms when the prior distributions are not significantly misleading. On the other hand, the proposed algorithm cannot handle greatly misspecified priors as well as the other algorithms can. This is a natural consequence of the fact that the proposed algorithm is greedier than the other algorithms. Accordingly, we discuss a way to select an appropriate algorithm for different tasks based on the algorithms' greediness. We also introduce a new way of simplifying Bayesian planning, based on which future work would be able to derive new algorithms.

Flight controllers manage the orientation and modes of eight large solar arrays that power the International Space Station (ISS). The task requires generating plans that balance complex constraints and preferences. These considerations include context-dependent constraints on viable solar array configurations, temporal limits on transitions between configurations, and preferences on which considerations have priority. The Solar Array Constraint Engine (SACE) treats this operations planning problem as a sequence of tractable constrained optimization problems. SACE uses constraint management and automated planning capabilities to reason about the constraints, to find optimal array configurations subject to these constraints and solution preferences, and to automatically generate solar array operations plans.

Many renewable sources of energy can harness greater uptime and power output when located in remote and potentially hostile locations. One example of this is wind power, wherein turbines positioned at offshore locations can experience higher and more sustained windspeeds than their onshore counterparts. However, these traits also lead to increased load and degradation upon components, which in turn means that regular maintenance is required. While onshore maintenance costs are relatively trivial, the costs associated with offshore maintenance can be several orders-of-magnitude greater. Traditionally, the scheduling of these repairs is performed by hand using a set of pre-determined plans for specific fault-categories (e.g. trivial/minor/major component replacement). This paper formulates this problem as a PDDL domain which encapsulates all of the individual pre-defined plans in a single representation, such that multiple levels of response can be integrated in a single plan. The domain presented is complex in that it contains not only numeric and temporal planning aspects, but that a subset of the domain is heavily geared towards pure scheduling. We include performance results on how a state-of-the-art planner performs on various example scenarios.

The electricity network balancing problem consists of ensuring that the electricity demands of the consumers are met by the committed supply. Constraints are imposed on the different elements of the network, so that damage to the equipment is prevented when transformers are stepped up or down, or generation is increased. We consider this problem within zones, which are sub-networks constructed using carefully chosen decomposition principles. The automation of decision making in electricity networks is a step forward in their management which is necessary for coping with the increase in power system complexity that we expect in the near term. In this paper we explore the deployment of planning techniques to solve the zone-balancing problem. Embedding electricity networks in a domain description presents new challenges for planning. The key point is that the propagation of information requires complex updates to the state when an action is applied. We have developed a method in which the computation of the critical numeric quantities is performed calling an external power flow equation solver, demonstrating a clean interface between the planner and this domain-specific computation. This solver allows us to move the power flow computations outside of the planning process and update the values efficiently. We also examine a second important feature of this problem, which is the interaction between exogenous events and constraints over the entire plan trajectory within a zone.

We propose a novel receiver for orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) transmissions in impulsive noise environments. Impulsive noise arises in many modern wireless and wireline communication systems, such as Wi-Fi and powerline communications, due to uncoordinated interference that is much stronger than thermal noise. We first show that the bit-error-rate optimal receiver jointly estimates the propagation channel coefficients, the noise impulses, the finite-alphabet symbols, and the unknown bits. We then propose a near-optimal yet computationally tractable approach to this joint estimation problem using loopy belief propagation. In particular, we merge the recently proposed "generalized approximate message passing" (GAMP) algorithm with the forward-backward algorithm and soft-input soft-output decoding using a "turbo" approach. Numerical results indicate that the proposed receiver drastically outperforms existing receivers under impulsive noise and comes within 1 dB of the matched-filter bound. Meanwhile, with N tones, the proposed factor-graph-based receiver has only O(N log N) complexity, and it can be parallelized.

We present a graph-based variational algorithm for classification of high-dimensional data, generalizing the binary diffuse interface model to the case of multiple classes. Motivated by total variation techniques, the method involves minimizing an energy functional made up of three terms. The first two terms promote a stepwise continuous classification function with sharp transitions between classes, while preserving symmetry among the class labels. The third term is a data fidelity term, allowing us to incorporate prior information into the model in a semi-supervised framework. The performance of the algorithm on synthetic data, as well as on the COIL and MNIST benchmark datasets, is competitive with state-of-the-art graph-based multiclass segmentation methods.

In this communication, we describe some interrelations between generalized $q$-entropies and a generalized version of Fisher information. In information theory, the de Bruijn identity links the Fisher information and the derivative of the entropy. We show that this identity can be extended to generalized versions of entropy and Fisher information. More precisely, a generalized Fisher information naturally pops up in the expression of the derivative of the Tsallis entropy. This generalized Fisher information also appears as a special case of a generalized Fisher information for estimation problems. Indeed, we derive here a new Cram\'er-Rao inequality for the estimation of a parameter, which involves a generalized form of Fisher information. This generalized Fisher information reduces to the standard Fisher information as a particular case. In the case of a translation parameter, the general Cram\'er-Rao inequality leads to an inequality for distributions which is saturated by generalized $q$-Gaussian distributions. These generalized $q$-Gaussians are important in several areas of physics and mathematics. They are known to maximize the $q$-entropies subject to a moment constraint. The Cram\'er-Rao inequality shows that the generalized $q$-Gaussians also minimize the generalized Fisher information among distributions with a fixed moment. Similarly, the generalized $q$-Gaussians also minimize the generalized Fisher information among distributions with a given $q$-entropy.

We introduce a class of quadratic support (QS) functions, many of which play a crucial role in a variety of applications, including machine learning, robust statistical inference, sparsity promotion, and Kalman smoothing. Well known examples include the l2, Huber, l1 and Vapnik losses. We build on a dual representation for QS functions using convex analysis, revealing the structure necessary for a QS function to be interpreted as the negative log of a probability density, and providing the foundation for statistical interpretation and analysis of QS loss functions. For a subclass of QS functions called piecewise linear quadratic (PLQ) penalties, we also develop efficient numerical estimation schemes. These components form a flexible statistical modeling framework for a variety of learning applications, together with a toolbox of efficient numerical methods for inference. In particular, for PLQ densities, interior point (IP) methods can be used. IP methods solve nonsmooth optimization problems by working directly with smooth systems of equations characterizing their optimality. The efficiency of the IP approach depends on the structure of particular applications. We consider the class of dynamic inverse problems using Kalman smoothing, where the aim is to reconstruct the state of a dynamical system with known process and measurement models starting from noisy output samples. In the classical case, Gaussian errors are assumed in the process and measurement models. The extended framework allows arbitrary PLQ densities to be used, and the proposed IP approach solves the generalized Kalman smoothing problem while maintaining the linear complexity in the size of the time series, just as in the Gaussian case. This extends the computational efficiency of classic algorithms to a much broader nonsmooth setting, and includes many recently proposed robust and sparse smoothers as special cases.