An attractive approach to managing electricity demand in the Smart Grid relies on real-time pricing (RTP) tariffs, where customers are incentivized to quickly adapt to changes in the cost of supply. However, choosing amongst competitive RTP tariffs is difficult when tariff prices change rapidly. The problem is further complicated when we assume that the price changes for a tariff are published in real-time only to those customers who are currently subscribed to that tariff, thus making the prices partially observable. We present models and learning algorithms for autonomous agents that can address the tariff selection problem on behalf of customers. We introduce 'Negotiated Learning', a general algorithm that enables a self-interested sequential decision-making agent to periodically select amongst a variable set of 'entities' (e.g., tariffs) by negotiating with other agents in the environment to gather information about dynamic partially observable entity 'features' (e.g., tariff prices) that affect the entity selection decision. We also contribute a formulation of the tariff selection problem as a 'Negotiable Entity Selection Process', a novel representation. We support our contributions with intuitive justification and simulation experiments based on real data on an open Smart Grid simulation platform.  

Sustainable energy systems of the future will need more than efficient, clean, and low-cost energy sources. They will also need efficient price signals that motivate sustainable energy consumption behaviors and a tight real-time alignment of energy demand with supply from renewable and traditional sources. The Power Trading Agent Competition (Power TAC) is a rich, competitive, open-source simulation platform for future retail power markets built on real-world data and state-of-the-art customer models. Its purpose is to help researchers understand the dynamics of customer and retailer decision-making as well as the robustness of proposed market designs. Power TAC invites researchers to develop autonomous electricity broker agents and to pit them against best-in-class strategies in global competitions, the first of which will be held at AAAI 2013. Power TAC competitions provide compelling, actionable information for policy makers and industry leaders. We describe the competition scenario, demonstrate the realism of the Power TAC platform, and analyze key characteristics of successful brokers in one of our 2012 pilot competitions between seven research groups from five different countries.

When used for structured regression, powerful Conditional Random Fields (CRFs) are typically restricted to modeling effects of interactions among examples in local neighborhoods. Using more expressive representation would result in dense graphs, making these methods impractical for large-scale applications. To address this issue, we propose an effective CRF model with linear scale-up properties regarding approximate learning and inference for structured regression on large, fully connected graphs. The proposed method is validated on real-world large-scale problems of image de-noising and remote sensing. In conducted experiments, we demonstrated that dense connectivity provides an improvement in prediction accuracy. Inference time of less than ten seconds on graphs with millions of nodes and trillions of edges makes the proposed model an attractive tool for large-scale, structured regression problems.

We present a novel negotiation protocol to facilitate energy exchange between off-grid homes that are equipped with renewable energy generation and electricity storage. Our protocol imposes restrictions over negotiation such that it reduces the complex interdependent multi-issue negotiation to one where agents have a strategy profile in subgame perfect Nash equilibrium. We show that our negotiation protocol is tractable, concurrent, scalable and leads to Pareto-optimal outcomes in a decentralised manner. We empirically evaluate our protocol and show that, in this instance, a society of agents can (i) improve the overall utilities by 14% and (ii) reduce their overall use of the batteries by 37%.

List of conference committees for AAAI-13, IAAI-13, and the EAAI-13 symposium.

According to Daniel Kahneman, there are two systems that drive the human decision making process: The intuitive system that performs the fast thinking, and the deliberative system that does more logical and slower thinking. Inspired by this model, we propose a framework for implementing human activity recognition on mobile devices. In this area, the mobile app is usually always-on and the general challenge is how to balance accuracy and energy consumption. However, among existing approaches, those based on cellular IDs consume little power but are less accurate; those based on GPS/WiFi sampling are accurate often at the costs of battery drainage; moreover, previous methods in general do not improve over time. To address these challenges, our framework consists of two modes: In the deliberation mode, the system learns cell ID patterns that are trained by existing GPS/WiFi based methods; in the intuition mode, only the learned cell ID patterns are used for activity recognition, which is both accurate and energy-efficient; system parameters are learned to control the transition from deliberation to intuition, when sufficient confidence is gained, and the transition from intuition to deliberation, when more training is needed. For the scope of this paper, we first elaborate our framework in a subproblem in activity recognition, trip detection, which recognizes significant places and trips between them. For evaluation, we collected real-life traces of six participants over five months. Our experiments demonstrated consistent results across different participants in terms of accuracy and energy efficiency, and, more importantly, its fast improvement on energy efficiency over time due to regularities in human daily activities.

Since people spend a majority of their time indoors, indoor air quality (IAQ) can have a significant impact on human health, safety, productivity, and comfort. Due to the diversity and dynamics of people's indoor activities, it is important to monitor IAQ for each individual. Most existing air quality sensing systems are stationary or focus on outdoor air quality. In contrast, we propose MAQS, a user-centric mobile sensing system for IAQ monitoring. MAQS users carry portable, indoor location tracking and IAQ sensing devices that provide personalized IAQ information in real time. To improve accuracy and energy efficiency, MAQS incorporates three novel techniques: (1) an accurate temporal n-gram augmented Bayesian room localization method that requires few Wi-Fi fingerprints; (2) an air exchange rate based IAQ sensing method, which measures general IAQ using only CO$_2$ sensors; and (3) a zone-based proximity detection method for collaborative sensing, which saves energy and enables data sharing among users. MAQS has been deployed and evaluated via a real-world user study. This evaluation demonstrates that MAQS supports accurate personalized IAQ monitoring and quantitative analysis with high energy efficiency. We also found that study participants frequently experienced poor IAQ.

Type-1 fuzzy logic has frequently been used in control systems. However this method is sometimes shown to be too restrictive and unable to adapt in the presence of uncertainty. In this paper we compare type-1 fuzzy control with several other fuzzy approaches under a range of uncertain conditions. Interval type-2 and non-stationary fuzzy controllers are compared, along with 'dual surface' type-2 control, named due to utilising both the lower and upper values produced from standard interval type-2 systems. We tune a type-1 controller, then derive the membership functions and footprints of uncertainty from the type-1 system and evaluate them using a simulated autonomous sailing problem with varying amounts of environmental uncertainty. We show that while these more sophisticated controllers can produce better performance than the type-1 controller, this is not guaranteed and that selection of Footprint of Uncertainty (FOU) size has a large effect on this relative performance.

Unions of subspaces provide a powerful generalization to linear subspace models for collections of high-dimensional data. To learn a union of subspaces from a collection of data, sets of signals in the collection that belong to the same subspace must be identified in order to obtain accurate estimates of the subspace structures present in the data. Recently, sparse recovery methods have been shown to provide a provable and robust strategy for exact feature selection (EFS)--recovering subsets of points from the ensemble that live in the same subspace. In parallel with recent studies of EFS with L1-minimization, in this paper, we develop sufficient conditions for EFS with a greedy method for sparse signal recovery known as orthogonal matching pursuit (OMP). Following our analysis, we provide an empirical study of feature selection strategies for signals living on unions of subspaces and characterize the gap between sparse recovery methods and nearest neighbor (NN)-based approaches. In particular, we demonstrate that sparse recovery methods provide significant advantages over NN methods and the gap between the two approaches is particularly pronounced when the sampling of subspaces in the dataset is sparse. Our results suggest that OMP may be employed to reliably recover exact feature sets in a number of regimes where NN approaches fail to reveal the subspace membership of points in the ensemble.

This paper has been withdrawn by the authors. We present a framework for sequential decision making in problems described by graphical models. The setting is given by dependent discrete random variables with associated costs or revenues. In our examples, the dependent variables are the potential outcomes (oil, gas or dry) when drilling a petroleum well. The goal is to develop an optimal selection strategy that incorporates a chosen utility function within an approximated dynamic programming scheme. We propose and compare different approximations, from simple heuristics to more complex iterative schemes, and we discuss their computational properties. We apply our strategies to oil exploration over multiple prospects modeled by a directed acyclic graph, and to a reservoir drilling decision problem modeled by a Markov random field. The results show that the suggested strategies clearly improve the simpler intuitive constructions, and this is useful when selecting exploration policies.