Energy
Contextually Supervised Source Separation with Application to Energy Disaggregation
Wytock, Matt (Carnegie Mellon University) | Kolter, J. Zico (Carnegie Mellon University)
We propose a new framework for single-channel source separation that liesbetween the fully supervised and unsupervised setting. Instead of supervision,we provide input features for each source signal and use convex methods toestimate the correlations between these features and the unobserved signaldecomposition. Contextually supervised source separation is a natural fit fordomains with large amounts of data but no explicit supervision; our motivatingapplication is energy disaggregation of hourly smart meter data (the separationof whole-home power signals into different energy uses). Here contextualsupervision allows us to provide itemized energy usage for thousands homes, a taskpreviously impossible due to the need for specialized data collection hardware.On smaller datasets which include labels, we demonstrate that contextualsupervision improves significantly over a reasonable baseline and existingunsupervised methods for source separation. Finally, we analyze the case of$\ell_2$ loss theoretically and show that recovery of the signal componentsdepends only on cross-correlation between features for different signals, not oncorrelations between features for the same signal.
Efficient Buyer Groups for Prediction-of-Use Electricity Tariffs
Robu, Valentin (Heriot-Watt University) | Vinyals, Meritxell (University of Southampton) | Rogers, Alex (University of Southampton) | Jennings, Nicholas R. (University of Southampton)
Current electricity tariffs do not reflect the real cost that customers incur to suppliers, as units are charged at the same rate, regardless of how predictable each customer's consumption is. A recent proposal to address this problem are prediction-of-use tariffs. In such tariffs, a customer is asked in advance to predict her future consumption, and is charged based both on her actual consumption and the deviation from her prediction. Prior work {aamas2014} studied the cost game induced by a single such tariff, and showed customers would have an incentive to minimize their risk, by joining together when buying electricity as a grand coalition. In this work we study the efficient (i.e. cost-minimizing) structure of buying groups for the more realistic setting when multiple, competing prediction-of-use tariffs are available. We propose a polynomial time algorithm to compute efficient buyer groups, and validate our approach experimentally, using a large-scale data set of domestic electricity consumers in the UK.
Challenges in Materials Discovery – Synthetic Generator and Real Datasets
Bras, Ronan Le (Cornell University) | Bernstein, Richard (Cornell University) | Gregoire, John M (California Institute of Technology) | Suram, Santosh K (California Institute of Technology) | Gomes, Carla P (Cornell University) | Selman, Bart (Cornell University) | Dover, R. Bruce van (Cornell University)
Newly-discovered materials have been central to recent technological advances. They have contributed significantly to breakthroughs in electronics, renewable energy and green buildings, and overall, have promoted the advancement of global human welfare. Yet, only a fraction of all possible materials have been explored. Accelerating the pace of discovery of materials would foster technological innovations, and would potentially address pressing issues in sustainability, such as energy production or consumption. The bottleneck of this discovery cycle lies, however, in the analysis of the materials data. As materials scientists have recently devised techniques to efficiently create thousands of materials and experimentalists have developed new methods and tools to characterize these materials, the limiting factor has become the data analysis itself. Hence, the goal of this paper is to stimulate the development of new computational techniques for the analysis of materials data, by bringing together the complimentary expertise of materials scientists and computer scientists. In collaboration with two major research laboratories in materials science, we provide the first publicly available dataset for the phase map identification problem. In addition, we provide a parameterized synthetic data generator to assess the quality of proposed approaches, as well as tools for data visualization and solution evaluation.
A New Optimal Stepsize For Approximate Dynamic Programming
Ryzhov, Ilya O., Frazier, Peter I., Powell, Warren B.
Approximate dynamic programming (ADP) has proven itself in a wide range of applications spanning large-scale transportation problems, health care, revenue management, and energy systems. The design of effective ADP algorithms has many dimensions, but one crucial factor is the stepsize rule used to update a value function approximation. Many operations research applications are computationally intensive, and it is important to obtain good results quickly. Furthermore, the most popular stepsize formulas use tunable parameters and can produce very poor results if tuned improperly. We derive a new stepsize rule that optimizes the prediction error in order to improve the short-term performance of an ADP algorithm. With only one, relatively insensitive tunable parameter, the new rule adapts to the level of noise in the problem and produces faster convergence in numerical experiments.
Bandits Warm-up Cold Recommender Systems
Mary, Jérémie, Gaudel, Romaric, Philippe, Preux
We address the cold start problem in recommendation systems assuming no contextual information is available neither about users, nor items. We consider the case in which we only have access to a set of ratings of items by users. Most of the existing works consider a batch setting, and use cross-validation to tune parameters. The classical method consists in minimizing the root mean square error over a training subset of the ratings which provides a factorization of the matrix of ratings, interpreted as a latent representation of items and users. Our contribution in this paper is 5-fold. First, we explicit the issues raised by this kind of batch setting for users or items with very few ratings. Then, we propose an online setting closer to the actual use of recommender systems; this setting is inspired by the bandit framework. The proposed methodology can be used to turn any recommender system dataset (such as Netflix, MovieLens,...) into a sequential dataset. Then, we explicit a strong and insightful link between contextual bandit algorithms and matrix factorization; this leads us to a new algorithm that tackles the exploration/exploitation dilemma associated to the cold start problem in a strikingly new perspective. Finally, experimental evidence confirm that our algorithm is effective in dealing with the cold start problem on publicly available datasets. Overall, the goal of this paper is to bridge the gap between recommender systems based on matrix factorizations and those based on contextual bandits.
An eigenanalysis of data centering in machine learning
Many pattern recognition methods rely on statistical information from centered data, with the eigenanalysis of an empirical central moment, such as the covariance matrix in principal component analysis (PCA), as well as partial least squares regression, canonical-correlation analysis and Fisher discriminant analysis. Recently, many researchers advocate working on non-centered data. This is the case for instance with the singular value decomposition approach, with the (kernel) entropy component analysis, with the information-theoretic learning framework, and even with nonnegative matrix factorization. Moreover, one can also consider a non-centered PCA by using the second-order non-central moment. The main purpose of this paper is to bridge the gap between these two viewpoints in designing machine learning methods. To provide a study at the cornerstone of kernel-based machines, we conduct an eigenanalysis of the inner product matrices from centered and non-centered data. We derive several results connecting their eigenvalues and their eigenvectors. Furthermore, we explore the outer product matrices, by providing several results connecting the largest eigenvectors of the covariance matrix and its non-centered counterpart. These results lay the groundwork to several extensions beyond conventional centering, with the weighted mean shift, the rank-one update, and the multidimensional scaling. Experiments conducted on simulated and real data illustrate the relevance of this work.
Reconstructing Velocities of Migrating Birds from Weather Radar – A Case Study in Computational Sustainability
Farnsworth, Andrew (Cornell University) | Sheldon, Daniel (University of Massachusetts Amherst) | Geevarghese, Jeffrey (University of Massachusetts Amherst) | Irvine, Jed (Oregon State University) | Doren, Benjamin Van (Cornell University) | Webb, Kevin (Cornell University) | Dietterich, Thomas G. (Oregon State University) | Kelling, Steve (Cornell University)
Each volume scan consists radial velocity data. For any given pulse volume, radial of a sequence of sweeps during which the antenna velocity tells us the component of target velocity in rotates 360 degrees around a vertical axis while the direction of the radar beam, and we have no additional keeping its elevation angle fixed (figure 2). The result information about the component orthogonal of each sweep is a set of raster data products summarizing to the radar beam. However, the overall pattern of the the radar signal returned from targets within sweep often provides clear evidence about the true discrete pulse volumes, which are the portions of the target velocities. In this example, targets to the northeast atmosphere sensed at a particular antenna position (NE) of the radar station have negative radial and range from the radar. The coordinates of each velocities (dark colors), which means they are pulse volume (r, ϕ, ρ) are measured in a three-dimensional approaching the radar, and targets to the southwest polar coordinate system: r is the distance in (SW) of the radar station have positive radial velocities meters from the antenna, ϕ is the azimuth, which is (light colors), which means they are departing the angle in the horizontal plane between the antenna direction and a fixed reference direction (typically the radar station. We can infer that the targets (in this degrees clockwise from due north), and ρ is the elevation case, predominantly migrating birds) are moving uniformly angle, which is the angle between the antenna in a SW direction, as shown in panel (c). The direction and its projection onto the horizontal spiral pattern in the velocity image is due to changes plane.
Computational Sustainability
Eaton, Eric (University of Pennsylvania) | Gomes, Carla P. (Cornell University) | Williams, Brian (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Computational sustainability problems, which exist in dynamic environments with high amounts of uncertainty, provide a variety of unique challenges to artificial intelligence research and the opportunity for significant impact upon our collective future. This editorial provides an overview of artificial intelligence for computational sustainability, and introduces this special issue of AI Magazine.
Optimal Demand Response Using Device Based Reinforcement Learning
Wen, Zheng, O'Neill, Daniel, Maei, Hamid Reza
Demand response (DR) for residential and small commercial buildings is estimated to account for as much as 65% of the total energy savings potential of DR, and previous work shows that a fully automated Energy Management System (EMS) is a necessary prerequisite to DR in these areas. In this paper, we propose a novel EMS formulation for DR problems in these sectors. Specifically, we formulate a fully automated EMS's rescheduling problem as a reinforcement learning (RL) problem, and argue that this RL problem can be approximately solved by decomposing it over device clusters. Compared with existing formulations, our new formulation (1) does not require explicitly modeling the user's dissatisfaction on job rescheduling, (2) enables the EMS to self-initiate jobs, (3) allows the user to initiate more flexible requests and (4) has a computational complexity linear in the number of devices. We also demonstrate the simulation results of applying Q-learning, one of the most popular and classical RL algorithms, to a representative example.
Supply Restoration in Power Distribution Systems — A Benchmark for Planning under Uncertainty
Thiebaux, Sylvie (Australian National University and National ICT Australia) | Cordier, Marie-Odile (Universite de Rennes I and IRISA)
This paper proposes the problem of supply restoration in faulty power distribution systems as a benchmark for planning under uncertainty. This benchmark, which is derived from a significant real-world case, is both simple to understand and easily scalable. The goal is to reconfigure the distribution network to resupply a maximum of consumers affected by the faults. Due to sensor and actuator uncertainty, the location of the faulty areas and the current network configuration are only partially observable. This makes the problem very challenging.