Many machine learning tasks can be formulated in terms of predicting structured outputs. In frameworks such as the structured support vector machine (SVM-Struct) and the structured per-ceptron, discriminative functions are learned by iteratively applying efficient maximum a posteri-ori (MAP) decoding. However, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of probabilistic models over these same structured spaces requires computing partition functions, which is generally intractable. This paper presents a method for learning discrete exponential family models using the Bethe approximation to the MLE. Remarkably, this problem also reduces to iterative (MAP) decoding. This connection emerges by combining the Bethe approximation with a Frank-Wolfe (FW) algorithm on a convex dual objective which circumvents the intractable partition function. The result is a new single loop algorithm MLE-Struct, which is substantially more efficient than previous double-loop methods for approximate maximum likelihood estimation. Our algorithm outperforms existing methods in experiments involving image segmentation, matching problems from vision, and a new dataset of university roommate assignments.

Integrating wind power into the grid is challenging because of its random nature. Integration is facilitated with accurate short-term forecasts of wind power. The paper presents a spatio-temporal wind speed forecasting algorithm that incorporates the time series data of a target station and data of surrounding stations. Inspired by Compressive Sensing (CS) and structured-sparse recovery algorithms, we claim that there usually exists an intrinsic low-dimensional structure governing a large collection of stations that should be exploited. We cast the forecasting problem as recovery of a block-sparse signal $\boldsymbol{x}$ from a set of linear equations $\boldsymbol{b} = A\boldsymbol{x}$ for which we propose novel structure-sparse recovery algorithms. Results of a case study in the east coast show that the proposed Compressive Spatio-Temporal Wind Speed Forecasting (CST-WSF) algorithm significantly improves the short-term forecasts compared to a set of widely-used benchmark models.

In this paper we focus on finding high quality solutions for the problem of maximum partitioning of graphs with supply and demand (MPGSD). There is a growing interest for the MPGSD due to its close connection to problems appearing in the field of electrical distribution systems, especially for the optimization of self-adequacy of interconnected microgrids. We propose an ant colony optimization algorithm for the problem. With the goal of further improving the algorithm we combine it with a previously developed correction procedure. In our computational experiments we evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithm on both trees and general graphs. The tests show that the method manages to find optimal solutions in more than 50% of the problem instances, and has an average relative error of less than 0.5% when compared to known optimal solutions. Keywords: Ant Colony Optimization, Microgrid, Graph Partitioning, Demand Vertex, Supply Vertex, Combinatorial Optimization 1. Introduction In recent years the research in the field of smart grids has had a significant increase in exploring the concept of interconnected microgrids [1].

Saving energy is a major concern. Hence, it is fundamental to design and construct buildings that are energy-efficient. It is known that the early stage of architectural design has a significant impact on this matter. However, it is complex to create designs that are optimally energy efficient, and at the same time balance other essential criterias such as economics, space, and safety. One state-of-the art approach is to create parametric designs, and use a genetic algorithm to optimize across different objectives. We further improve this method, by aggregating the solutions of multiple agents. We evaluate diverse teams, composed by different agents; and uniform teams, composed by multiple copies of a single agent. We test our approach across three design cases of increasing complexity, and show that the diverse team provides a significantly larger percentage of optimal solutions than single agents.

Vehicle-sharing (ex: bike sharing, car sharing) is widelyadopted in many cities of the world due to concernsassociated with extensive private vehicle usage, whichhas led to increased carbon emissions, traffic conges-tion and usage of non-renewable resources. In vehicle-sharing systems, base stations are strategically placedthroughout a city and each of the base stations containa pre-determined number of vehicles at the beginningof each day. Due to the stochastic and individualisticmovement of customers, typically, there is either con-gestion (more than required) or starvation (fewer thanrequired) of vehicles at certain base stations. As demon-strated in our experimental results, this happens oftenand can cause a significant loss in demand. We proposeto dynamically redeploy idle vehicles using carriers soas to minimize lost demand or alternatively maximizerevenue of the vehicle sharing company. To that end,we contribute an optimization formulation to jointly ad-dress the redeployment (of vehicles) and routing (of car-riers) problems and provide two approaches that rely ondecomposability and abstraction of problem domains toreduce the computation time significantly. Finally, wedemonstrate the utility of our approaches on two realworld data sets of bike-sharing companies.

The timely detection of leaks in water distribution systems is critical to the sustainable provision of clean water to consumers. Increasingly, water companies are deploying remote sensors to measure water flow in real-time in order to detect such leaks. However, in practice, for typical District Metering Zones (DMZ), financial constraints limit the number of deployable real time flow sensors/meters to one or two, thus constraining leak detection to be based on the aggregated flow being monitored at these point. Such aggregated flow data typically exhibits input signal dependence whereby both noise and leaks are dependent on the flow being measured. This limited monitoring and input signal dependance make conventional approaches based on simple thresholds unreliable for real time leak detection. To address this, we propose a Gaussian process (GP) model with an additive diagonal noise covariance that is able to handle the input dependant noise observed in this setting. A parameterised mean step change function is used to detect leaks and to estimate their size. Using prior water distribution systems (WDS) knowledge we dynamically bound and discretize the detection parameters of the step change mean function, reducing and pruning the parameter search space considerably. We evaluate the proposed noise scaled GP (NSGP) against both the latest researchwork on GP based fault detection methods and the current state of the art and applied leak detection approaches in water distribution systems. We show that our proposed method outperforms other approaches, on real water network data with synthetically generatedvtime varying leaks, with a detection accuracy of 99%, almost zero false positive detections and the lowest root mean squared error in leak magnitude estimation (0.065 l/s).

This paper outlines a new approach to creating value from the Smart Grid by incorporating individual households into the response system that must be deployed to accommodate increasingly large sources of intermittent renewable power. We propose a framework that couples agent-based AI techniques with envelope methods. Envelope methods provide a unified mathematical framework to model intermittent renewable resources, conventional dispatchable resources, demand side response, and storage. The overall goal of our system is to develop a distributed autonomous agent architecture that is able to facilitate market transactions among load serving entities, residential consumers, conventional merchant power producers, and intermittent power producers.

Growing demand is straining our existing electricity generation facilities and requires active participation of the utility and the consumers to achieve energy sustainability. One of the most effective and widely used ways to achieve this goal in the smart grid is demand response (DR), whereby consumers reduce their electricity consumption in response to a request sent from the utility whenever it anticipates a peak in demand. To successfully plan and implement demand response, the utility requires reliable estimate of reduced consumption during DR. This also helps in optimal selection of consumers and curtailment strategies during DR. While much work has been done on predicting normal consumption, reduced consumption prediction is an open problem that is under-studied. In this paper, we introduce and formalize the problem of reduced consumption prediction, and discuss the challenges associated with it. We also describe computational methods that use historical DR data as well as pre-DR conditions to make such predictions. Our experiments are conducted in the real-world setting of a university campus microgrid, and our preliminary results set the foundation for more detailed modeling.

The Smart Grid allows users to monitor power usage through the use of Smart Meter technology. In principle, this information can be used to modify usage habits in a way that reduces consumer costs as well as greenhouse emissions. However, in an urban environment, many users are restricted by the same constaints: they work during the day, and they are home at night. This creates spikes in power cost at peak usage times, and it may also lead to increased emissions in scenarios where sustainable resources are limited. An individual user can avoid these spikes by using an electric car as a storage device; it can be charged at the cheapest times, and then discharged to the home at the most expensive times. While this idea is intuitively appealing, it turns out that the benefits vary greatly depending on the storage algorithm used. In this paper, we describe the Power Storage Simulator, a tool for experimenting with storage algorithms to improve the efficiency of vehicle to grid systems. We suggest that this tool is also useful for educating power consumers about load balancing on the Smart Grid through an engaging, visual simulation.

In this paper we consider a scenario where one or more robotic bodyguards are protecting an important individual (VIP) moving in a public space against harassment or harm from unarmed civilians. In this scenario, the main objective of the robots is to position themselves such that at any given moment they provide maximum physical cover for the VIP. The robots need to follow the VIP in its movement and take into account the movements of the civilians as well. The environment can also contain obstacles which present challenges to movement but also provide natural cover. We designed two algorithms for the movement of the bodyguard robots: Threat Vector Resolution (TVR) for a single robot and Quadrant Load Balancing (QLB) for teams of bodyguard robots. We evaluated the proposed approaches against rigid formations in a simulation study.