PDS (Process Diagnosis System) is an expert system shell developed in the early 1980's. It could handle thousands of sensor inputs and produce thousands of diagnostic messages with confidence factors based on complex logic designed to mimic the thinking of human experts. PDS went into commercial operation in 1985 to monitor seven power plant generators from a centralized diagnostic center at Westinghouse Power Generation headquarters. In the 1990’s the popularity of advanced technology gas turbines provided a renaissance in PDS utilization. The software has undergone rewrites and improvements since its inception, and the current PCPDS now supports the Siemens Power Diagnostics® Center with centralized rule based monitoring of over 1200 gas turbines, steam turbines, and generators.

Sales pipeline win-propensity prediction is fundamental to effective sales management. In contrast to using subjective human rating, we propose a modern machine learning paradigm to estimate the win-propensity of sales leads over time. A profile-specific two-dimensional Hawkes processes model is developed to capture the influence from seller's activities on their leads to the win outcome, coupled with lead's personalized profiles. It is motivated by two observations: i) sellers tend to frequently focus their selling activities and efforts on a few leads during a relatively short time. This is evidenced and reflected by their concentrated interactions with the pipeline, including login, browsing and updating the sales leads which are logged by the system; ii) the pending opportunity is prone to reach its win outcome shortly after such temporally concentrated interactions. Our model is deployed and in continual use to a large, global, B2B multinational technology enterprize (Fortune 500) with a case study. Due to the generality and flexibility of the model, it also enjoys the potential applicability to other real-world problems.

Bayesian reinforcement learning (BRL) provides a formal framework for optimal exploration-exploitation tradeoff in reinforcement learning. Unfortunately, it is generally intractable to find the Bayes-optimal behavior except for restricted cases. As a consequence, many BRL algorithms, model-based approaches in particular, rely on approximated models or real-time search methods. In this paper, we present potential-based shaping for improving the learning performance in model-based BRL. We propose a number of potential functions that are particularly well suited for BRL, and are domain-independent in the sense that they do not require any prior knowledge about the actual environment. By incorporating the potential function into real-time heuristic search, we show that we can significantly improve the learning performance in standard benchmark domains.

Our society is organized around a number of (interdependent) global systems. Logistic and supply chains, health services, energy networks, financial markets, computer networks, and cities are just a few examples of such global, complex systems. These global systems are socio-technical and involve interactions between complex infrastructures, man-made processes, natural phenomena, multiple stakeholders, and human behavior. For the first time in the history of manking, we have access to data sets of unprecedented scale and accuracy about these infrastructures, processes, natural phenomena, and human behaviors. In addition, progress in high-performancing computing, data mining, machine learning, and decision support opens the possibility of looking at these problems more holistically, capturing many of these aspects simultaneously. This paper addresses emergent architectures enabling controlling, predicting and reaoning on these systems.

In this paper, we consider the problem of energy disaggregation, i.e., decomposing a whole home electricity signal into its component appliances. We propose a new supervised algorithm, which in the learning stage, automatically extracts signature consumption patterns of each device by modeling the device as a mixture of dynamical systems. In order to extract signature consumption patterns of a device corresponding to its different modes of operation, we define appropriate dissimilarities between energy snippets of the device and use them in a subset selection scheme, which we generalize to deal with time-series data. We then form a dictionary that consists of extracted power signatures across all devices. We cast the disaggregation problem as an optimization over a representation in the learned dictionary and incorporate several novel priors such as device-sparsity, knowledge about devices that do or do not work together as well as temporal consistency of the disaggregated solution. Real experiments on a publicly available energy dataset demonstrate that our proposed algorithm achieves promising results for energy disaggregation.

Applications in sustainability domains such as in energy, transportation, and natural resource and environment monitoring, increasingly use sensors for collecting data and sending it back to centrally located processing nodes. While data can usually be collected by the sensors at a very high speed, in many cases, it can not be sent back to central nodes at a frequency that is required for fast and real-time modeling and decision-making. This may be due to physical limitations of the transmission networks, or due to consumers limiting frequent transmission of data from sensors located at their premises for security and privacy concerns. We propose a novel solution to the problem of making short term predictions in absence of real-time data from sensors. A key implication of our work is that by using real-time data from only a small subset of influential sensors, we are able to make predictions for all sen- sors. We evaluated our approach with a large real-world electricity consumption data collected from smart meters in Los Angeles and the results show that between prediction horizons of 2 to 8 hours, despite lack of real time data, our influence model outperforms the baseline model that uses real-time data. Also, when using partial real-time data from only ≈ 7% influential smart meters, we witness prediction error increase by only ≈ 0.5% over the baseline, thus demonstrating the usefulness of our method for practical scenarios.

Electric vehicles will play a crucial role in balancing the future electrical grid, which is complicated by many intermittent renewable energy sources. We developed an algorithm that determines for a fleet of electric vehicles, which EV at what price and location to commit to the operating reserve market to either absorb excess capacity or provide electricity during shortages (vehicle-2-grid). The algorithm takes the value of immobility into account by using carsharing fees as a reference point. A virtual power plant autonomously replaces cars that are committed to the operating reserves and are then rented out, with other idle cars to pool the risks of uncertainty. We validate our model with data from a free float carsharing fleet of 500 electric vehicles. An analysis of expected future developments (2015, 2018, and 2022) in operating reserve demand and battery costs yields that the gross profits for a carsharing operator increase between 7-12% with a negligible decrease in car availability (<0.01%).

In the proposed thesis, we study Distributed Constraint Optimization Problems (DCOPs), which are problems where several agents coordinate with each other to optimize a global cost function. The use of DCOPs has gained momentum, due to their capability of addressing complex and naturally distributed problems. A majority of the work in DCOP addresses the resolution problem by detaching the model from the resolution process, where they assume that each agent controls exclusively one variable of the problem (Burke et al. 2006). This assumption often is not reflected in the model specifications, and may lead to inefficient communication requirements. Another limitation of current DCOP resolution methods is their inability to capitalize on the presence of structural information, which may allow incoherent/unnecessary data to reticulate among the agents (Yokoo 2001). The purpose of the proposed dissertation is to study how to adapt and integrate insights gained from centralized solving techniques in order to enhance DCOP performance and scalability, enabling their use for the resolution of real-world complex problems. To do so, we hypothesize that one can exploit the DCOP structure in both problem modeling and problem resolution phases.

This paper briefly describes how the neural structure of fear conditioning has inspired to develop a computational intelligence model that is referred to as the brain emotional learning-inspired model (BELIM). The model is applied to predict long step ahead of solar activity and geomagnetic storms.

Cyber-Physical Production Systems (CPPSs) are in the focus of research, industry and politics: By applying new IT and new computer science solutions, production systems will become more adaptable, more resource ef- ficient and more user friendly. The analysis and diagnosis of such systems is a major part of this trend: Plants should detect automatically wear, faults and suboptimal configurations. This paper reflects the current state-of- the-art in diagnosis against the requirements of CPPSs, identifies three main gaps and gives application scenarios to outline first ideas for potential solutions to close these gaps.