The introduction of smart meters has motivated the electricity industry to manage electrical demand, using dynamic pricing schemes such as real-time pricing. The overall aim of demand management is to minimize electricity generation and distribution costs while meeting the demands and preferences of consumers. However, rapidly scheduling consumption of large groups of households is a challenge. In this paper, we present a highly scalable approach to find the optimal consumption levels for households in an iterative and distributed manner. The complexity of this approach is independent of the number of households, which allows it to be applied to problems with large groups of households. Moreover, the intermediate results of this approach can be used by smart meters to schedule tasks with a simple randomized method.

Driven by recent developments in Artificial Intelligence research, a promising new technology for building intelligent agents has evolved. The approach is termed Deep Reinforcement Learning and combines the classic field of Reinforcement Learning (RL) with the representational power of modern Deep Learning approaches. It is very well suited for single task learning but needs a long time to learn any new task. To speed up this process, we propose to extend the concept to multi-task learning by adapting Policy Reuse, a Transfer Learning approach from classic RL, to use with Deep Q-Networks.

Agricultural monitoring, especially in developing countries, can help prevent famine and support humanitarian efforts. A central challenge is yield estimation, i.e., predicting crop yields before harvest. We introduce a scalable, accurate, and inexpensive method to predict crop yields using publicly available remote sensing data. Our approach improves existing techniques in three ways. First, we forego hand-crafted features traditionally used in the remote sensing community and propose an approach based on modern representation learning ideas. We also introduce a novel dimensionality reduction technique that allows us to train a Convolutional Neural Network or Long-short Term Memory network and automatically learn useful features even when labeled training data are scarce. Finally, we incorporate a Gaussian Process component to explicitly model the spatio-temporal structure of the data and further improve accuracy. We evaluate our approach on county-level soybean yield prediction in the U.S. and show that it outperforms competing techniques.

Sustainable energy policies are of growing importance in all urban centers.Climate — and climate change — will play increasingly important roles in these policies.Climate zones defined by the California Energy Commissionhave long been influential in energy management.For example, recently a two-zone division of Los Angeles(defined by historical temperature averages) was introduced for electricity rate restructuring.The importance of climate zones has been enormous,and climate change could make them still more important. AI can provide improvements on the ways climate zones are derived and managed.This paper reports on analysis of aggregate household electricity consumption (EC) data from local utilities in Los Angeles,seeking possible improvements in energy management. In this analysis we noticed that EC data permits identificationof interesting geographical zones  — regions having EC patterns that are characteristically different from surrounding regions.We believe these zones could be useful in a variety of urban models.

Improving road safety is critical for the sustainable development of cities. A road safety map is a powerful tool that can help prevent future traffic accidents. However, accurate mapping requires accurate data collection, which is both expensive and labor intensive. Satellite imagery is increasingly becoming abundant, higher in resolution and affordable. Given the recent successes deep learning has achieved in the visual recognition field, we are interested in investigating whether it is possible to use deep learning to accurately predict road safety directly from raw satellite imagery. To this end, we propose a deep learning-based mapping approach that leverages open data to learn from raw satellite imagery robust deep models able to predict accurate city-scale road safety maps at an affordable cost. To empirically validate the proposed approach, we trained a deep model on satellite images obtained from over 647 thousand traffic-accident reports collected over a period of four years by the New York city Police Department. The best model predicted road safety from raw satellite imagery with an accuracy of 78%. We also used the New York city model to predict for the city of Denver a city-scale map indicating road safety in three levels. Compared to a map made from three years' worth of data collected by the Denver city Police Department, the map predicted from raw satellite imagery has an accuracy of 73%.

Targeted socio-economic policies require an accurate understanding of a country’s demographic makeup. To that end, the United States spends more than 1 billion dollars a year gathering census data such as race, gender, education, occupation and unemployment rates. Compared to the traditional method of collecting surveys across many years which is costly and labor intensive, data-driven, machine learning-driven approaches are cheaper and faster—with the potential ability to detect trends in close to real time. In this work, we leverage the ubiquity of Google Street View images and develop a computer vision pipeline to predict income, per capita carbon emission, crime rates and other city attributes from a single source of publicly available visual data. We first detect cars in 50 million images across 200 of the largest US cities and train a model to predict demographic attributes using the detected cars. To facilitate our work, we have collected the largest and most challenging fine-grained dataset reported to date consisting of over 2600 classes of cars comprised of images from Google Street View and other web sources, classified by car experts to account for even the most subtle of visual differences. We use this data to construct the largest scale fine-grained detection system reported to date. Our prediction results correlate well with ground truth income data (r=0.82), Massachusetts department of vehicle registration, and sources investigating crime rates, income segregation, per capita carbon emission, and other market research. Finally, we learn interesting relationships between cars and neighborhoods allowing us to perform the first large scale sociological analysis of cities using computer vision techniques.

Modern society is increasingly reliant on the functionality of infrastructure facilities and utility services. Consequently, there has been surge of interest in the problem of quantification of system reliability, which is known to be #P-complete. Reliability also contributes to the resilience of systems, so as to effectively make them bounce back after contingencies. Despite diverse progress, most techniques to estimate system reliability and resilience remain computationally expensive. In this paper, we investigate how recent advances in hashing-based approaches to counting can be exploited to improve computational techniques for system reliability.The primary contribution of this paper is a novel framework, RelNet, that reduces the problem of computing reliability for a given network to counting the number of satisfying assignments of a Σ 1 1 formula, which is amenable to recent hashing-based techniques developed for counting satisfying assignments of SAT formula. We then apply RelNet to ten real world power-transmission grids across different cities in the U.S. and are able to obtain, to the best of our knowledge, the first theoretically sound a priori estimates of reliability between several pairs of nodes of interest. Such estimates will help managing uncertainty and support rational decision making for community resilience.

Accurate electricity demand forecast plays a key role in sustainable power systems. It enables better decision making in the planning of electricity generation and distribution for many use cases. The electricity demand data can often be represented in a hierarchical structure. For example, the electricity consumption of a whole country could be disaggregated by states, cities, and households. Hierarchical forecasts require not only good prediction accuracy at each level of the hierarchy, but also the consistency between different levels. State-of-the-art hierarchical forecasting methods usually apply adjustments on the individual level forecasts to satisfy the aggregation constraints. However, the high-dimensionality of the unpenalized regression problem and the estimation errors in the high-dimensional error covariance matrix can lead to increased variability in the revised forecasts with poor prediction performance. In order to provide more robustness to estimation errors in the adjustments, we present a new hierarchical forecasting algorithm that computes sparse adjustments while still preserving the aggregation constraints. We formulate the problem as a high-dimensional penalized regression, which can be efficiently solved using cyclical coordinate descent methods. We also conduct experiments using a large-scale hierarchical electricity demand data. The results confirm the effectiveness of our approach compared to state-of-the-art hierarchical forecasting methods, in both the sparsity of the adjustments and the prediction accuracy. The proposed approach to hierarchical forecasting could be useful for energy generation including solar and wind energy, as well as numerous other applications.

Homes constitute more than one-thirds of the total energy consumption. Producing an energy breakdown for a home has been shown to reduce household energy consumption by up to 15%, among other benefits. However, existing approaches to produce an energy breakdown require hardware to be installed in each home and are thus prohibitively expensive. In this paper, we propose a novel application of feature-based matrix factorisation that does not require any additional hard- ware installation. The basic premise of our approach is that common design and construction patterns for homes create a repeating structure in their energy data. Thus, a sparse basis can be used to represent energy data from a broad range of homes. We evaluate our approach on 516 homes from a publicly available data set and find it to be more effective than five baseline approaches that either require sensing in each home, or a very rigorous survey across a large number of homes coupled with complex modelling. We also present a deployment of our system as a live web application that can potentially provide energy breakdown to millions of homes.

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are powerful models for planning under uncertainty in partially observable domains. However, computing optimal solutions for POMDPs is challenging because of the high computational requirements of POMDP solution algorithms. Several algorithms use a subroutine to prune dominated vectors in value functions, which requires a large number of linear programs (LPs) to be solved and it represents a large part of the total running time. In this paper we show how the LPs in POMDP pruning subroutines can be decomposed using a Benders decomposition. The resulting algorithm incrementally adds LP constraints and uses only a small fraction of the constraints. Our algorithm significantly improves the performance of existing pruning methods and the commonly used incremental pruning algorithm. Our new variant of incremental pruning is the fastest optimal pruning-based POMDP algorithm.