Energy
Artificial Intelligence : from Research to Application ; the Upper-Rhine Artificial Intelligence Symposium (UR-AI 2019)
The TriRhenaTech alliance universities and their partners presented their competences in the field of artificial intelligence and their cross-border cooperations with the industry at the tri-national conference 'Artificial Intelligence : from Research to Application' on March 13th, 2019 in Offenburg. The TriRhenaTech alliance is a network of universities in the Upper Rhine Trinational Metropolitan Region comprising of the German universities of applied sciences in Furtwangen, Kaiserslautern, Karlsruhe, and Offenburg, the Baden-Wuerttemberg Cooperative State University Loerrach, the French university network Alsace Tech (comprised of 14 'grandes \'ecoles' in the fields of engineering, architecture and management) and the University of Applied Sciences and Arts Northwestern Switzerland. The alliance's common goal is to reinforce the transfer of knowledge, research, and technology, as well as the cross-border mobility of students.
Uncertainty quantification of molecular property prediction with Bayesian neural networks
Ryu, Seongok, Kwon, Yongchan, Kim, Woo Youn
Deep neural networks have outperformed existing machine learning models in various molecular applications. In practical applications, it is still difficult to make confident decisions because of the uncertainty in predictions arisen from insufficient quality and quantity of training data. Here, we show that Bayesian neural networks are useful to quantify the uncertainty of molecular property prediction with three numerical experiments. In particular, it enables us to decompose the predictive variance into the model- and data-driven uncertainties, which helps to elucidate the source of errors. In the logP predictions, we show that data noise affected the data-driven uncertainties more significantly than the model-driven ones. Based on this analysis, we were able to find unexpected errors in the Harvard Clean Energy Project dataset. Lastly, we show that the confidence of prediction is closely related to the predictive uncertainty by performing on bio-activity and toxicity classification problems.
Provable Model for Tensor Ring Completion
Huang, Huyan, Liu, Yipeng, Zhu, Ce
Tensor is a natural way to represent the high-dimensional data, thus it preserves more intrinsic information than matrix when dealing with high-order data [1, 2, 3]. In practice, parts of the tensor entries are missing during data acquisition and transformation, tensor completion estimates the missing entries based on the assumption that most elements are correlated [4]. This correlation can be modeled as low-rank data structures which can be used in a series of applications, including signal processing [2], machine learning [5], remote sensing [6], computer vision [7], etc. There are two main frameworks for tensor completion, namely, variational energy minimization as well as tensor rank minimization [8, 9], where the energy is usually a recovery error in the context of tensor completion and the definition of rank varies with diverse tensor decompositions. The first method is realized by means of the alternating least square (ALS), in which each core tensor is updated one by one while others are fixed [8]. The ALSbased method requires a predefined tensor rank, while the rank minimization does not. Common forms of tensor decompositions are summarized as follows.
Causal Discovery from Heterogeneous/Nonstationary Data
Huang, Biwei, Zhang, Kun, Zhang, Jiji, Ramsey, Joseph, Sanchez-Romero, Ruben, Glymour, Clark, Schölkopf, Bernhard
It is commonplace to encounter heterogeneous or nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process changes across domains or over time. Such a distribution shift feature presents both challenges and opportunities for causal discovery. In this paper, we develop a framework for causal discovery from such data, called Constraint-based causal Discovery from heterogeneous/NOnstationary Data (CD-NOD), to find causal skeleton and directions and estimate the properties of mechanism changes. First, we propose an enhanced constraint-based procedure to detect variables whose local mechanisms change and recover the skeleton of the causal structure over observed variables. Second, we present a method to determine causal orientations by making use of independent changes in the data distribution implied by the underlying causal model, benefiting from information carried by changing distributions. After learning the causal structure, next, we investigate how to efficiently estimate the `driving force' of the nonstationarity of a causal mechanism. That is, we aim to extract from data a low-dimensional representation of changes. The proposed methods are nonparametric, with no hard restrictions on data distributions and causal mechanisms, and do not rely on window segmentation. Furthermore, we find that data heterogeneity benefits causal structure identification even with particular types of confounders. Finally, we show the connection between heterogeneity/nonstationarity and soft intervention in causal discovery. Experimental results on various synthetic and real-world data sets (task-fMRI and stock market data) are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methods.
Dynamic Learning of Sequential Choice Bandit Problem under Marketing Fatigue
Motivated by the observation that overexposure to unwanted marketing activities leads to customer dissatisfaction, we consider a setting where a platform offers a sequence of messages to its users and is penalized when users abandon the platform due to marketing fatigue. We propose a novel sequential choice model to capture multiple interactions taking place between the platform and its user: Upon receiving a message, a user decides on one of the three actions: accept the message, skip and receive the next message, or abandon the platform. Based on user feedback, the platform dynamically learns users' abandonment distribution and their valuations of messages to determine the length of the sequence and the order of the messages, while maximizing the cumulative payoff over a horizon of length T. We refer to this online learning task as the sequential choice bandit problem. For the offline combinatorial optimization problem, we show that an efficient polynomial-time algorithm exists. For the online problem, we propose an algorithm that balances exploration and exploitation, and characterize its regret bound. Lastly, we demonstrate how to extend the model with user contexts to incorporate personalization.
A Comparison of Prediction Algorithms and Nexting for Short Term Weather Forecasts
Koller, Michael, Feldmaier, Johannes, Diepold, Klaus
This report first provides a brief overview of a number of supervised learning algorithms for regression tasks. Among those are neural networks, regression trees, and the recently introduced Nexting. Nexting has been presented in the context of reinforcement learning where it was used to predict a large number of signals at different timescales. In the second half of this report, we apply the algorithms to historical weather data in order to evaluate their suitability to forecast a local weather trend. Our experiments did not identify one clearly preferable method, but rather show that choosing an appropriate algorithm depends on the available side information. For slowly varying signals and a proficient number of training samples, Nexting achieved good results in the studied cases.
Learning with Sets in Multiple Instance Regression Applied to Remote Sensing
In this paper, we propose a novel approach to tackle the multiple instance regression (MIR) problem. This problem arises when the data is a collection of bags, where each bag is made of multiple instances corresponding to the same unique real-valued label. Our goal is to train a regression model which maps the instances of an unseen bag to its unique label. This MIR setting is common to remote sensing applications where there is high variability in the measurements and low geographical variability in the quantity being estimated. Our approach, in contrast to most competing methods, does not make the assumption that there exists a prime instance responsible for the label in each bag. Instead, we treat each bag as a set (i.e, an unordered sequence) of instances and learn to map each bag to its unique label by using all the instances in each bag. This is done by implementing an order-invariant operation characterized by a particular type of attention mechanism. This method is very flexible as it does not require domain knowledge nor does it make any assumptions about the distribution of the instances within each bag. We test our algorithm on five real world datasets and outperform previous state-of-the-art on three of the datasets. In addition, we augment our feature space by adding the moments of each feature for each bag, as extra features, and show that while the first moments lead to higher accuracy, there is a diminishing return.
Probabilistic Energy Forecasting using Quantile Regressions based on a new Nearest Neighbors Quantile Filter
Ordiano, Jorge Ángel González, Gröll, Lutz, Mikut, Ralf, Hagenmeyer, Veit
Parametric quantile regressions are a useful tool for creating probabilistic energy forecasts. Nonetheless, since classical quantile regressions are trained using a non-differentiable cost function, their creation using complex data mining techniques (e.g., artificial neural networks) may be complicated. This article presents a method that uses a new nearest neighbors quantile filter to obtain quantile regressions independently of the utilized data mining technique and without the non-differentiable cost function. Thereafter, a validation of the presented method using the dataset of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition of 2014 is undertaken. The results show that the presented method is able to solve the competition's task with a similar accuracy and in a similar time as the competition's winner, but requiring a much less powerful computer. This property may be relevant in an online forecasting service for which the fast computation of probabilistic forecasts using not so powerful machines is required.
Big Oil Has Finally Joined The Digital Revolution OilPrice.com
The oil price crash of 2014 and the global'digitalization and disruption' drive coincided in a rather bizarre way to push the oil industry to seek cost cuts through innovation and new technologies. Big Tech was only too pleased to help Big Oil, seeing a new revenue stream in an industry long thought to be of the'dinosaur' type that was too slow to embrace new ways of doing things. Many oil and gas firms, especially the world's biggest, are already using data analytics, cloud computing, digital oil fields, digital twins, robotics, automation, predictive maintenance, machine learning, and even AI. The technology giants have seized the opportunity to sell such services to Big Oil, and top managers at Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and ABB Group, to name a few, flocked to this week's top energy industry event CERAWeek by IHS Markit in Houston to pitch their solutions to a wider audience. "A great wave of innovation and technology is transforming the industry and reshaping the energy future," said Daniel Yergin, conference chair and vice chairman of IHS Markit.
Artificial Intelligence to Make Petrol Pumps Safer by Picking Out Dangerous Behavior
Artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML) and continual deep learning (DL) are the new age digital skills that are being expected to transform the consumer and enterprise experience. Due to the vast amount of data that is now available in the Internet domain, machine learning and deep leaning have the capability to predict and prevent various catastrophically dangerous events. Now, Shell wants to leverage artificial intelligence to make petrol pumps a safer place. Shell has selected C3 IoT and Microsoft Azure to power a new companywide AI platform. A device inside petrol pumps running the Microsoft Azure IoT Edge can use artificial intelligence tools to pick out dangerous behavior like people lighting cigarettes while waiting at the pump, people driving recklessly, theft, and improper fueling.