Energy
The Next Frontier in Digital and AI Transformations
Even in traditional industries, aspirations are high. If there was a single overarching theme in our conversations with executives, it was the desire to succeed in digital and AI by developing new offerings and changing their companies' business models. For example, RBL Bank has launched India's first profitable open banking initiative. By opening its APIs to the public, RBL is allowing other companies to develop innovative services for the bank's customers. We see this trend in other industries, too.
Position Paper: From Multi-Agent Pathfinding to Pipe Routing
Belov, Gleb, Cohen, Liron, de la Banda, Maria Garcia, Harabor, Daniel, Koenig, Sven, Wei, Xinrui
The 2D Multi-Agent Path Finding (MAPF) problem aims at finding collision-free paths for a number of agents, from a set of start locations to a set of goal positions in a known 2D environment. MAPF has been studied in theoretical computer science, robotics, and artificial intelligence over several decades, due to its importance for robot navigation. It is currently experiencing significant scientific progress due to its relevance in automated warehousing (such as those operated by Amazon) and in other contemporary application areas. In this paper, we demonstrate that many recently developed MAPF algorithms apply more broadly than currently believed in the MAPF research community. In particular, we describe the 3D Pipe Routing (PR) problem, which aims at placing collision-free pipes from given start locations to given goal locations in a known 3D environment. The MAPF and PR problems are similar: a solution to a MAPF instance is a set of blocked cells in x-y-t space, while a solution to the corresponding PR instance is a set of blocked cells in x-y-z space. We show how to use this similarity to apply several recently developed MAPF algorithms to the PR problem, and discuss their performance on abstract PR instances. We also discuss further research necessary to tackle real-world pipe-routing instances of interest to industry today. This opens up a new direction of industrial relevance for the MAPF research community.
Best Arm Identification in Generalized Linear Bandits
Kazerouni, Abbas, Wein, Lawrence M.
The multi-armed bandit problem is a prototypical model for optimizing the tradeoff between exploration and exploitation. We consider a pure-exploration version of the bandit problem known as the best-arm identification problem, where the goal is to minimize the number of arm pulls required to select an arm that is - with sufficiently high probability - sufficiently close to the best arm. We assume that each arm has an observable vector of covariates or features, and there is an unknown vector of parameters (of the same dimension as the vector of features) that is common across arms. Whereas in a linear bandit the mean reward of an arm is the linear predictor (i.e., the inner product of the parameter vector and the feature vector), in our generalized linear model the mean reward is related to the linear predictor via a link function, which allows for mean rewards that are nonlinear in the linear predictor, as well as binary or integer rewards (via, e.g., logistic or
Leveraging Bayesian Analysis To Improve Accuracy of Approximate Models
Nadiga, Balasubramanya T., Jiang, Chiyu, Livescu, Daniel
We focus on improving the accuracy of an approximate model of a multiscale dynamical system that uses a set of parameter-dependent terms to account for the effects of unresolved or neglected dynamics on resolved scales. We start by considering various methods of calibrating and analyzing such a model given a few well-resolved simulations. After presenting results for various point estimates and discussing some of their shortcomings, we demonstrate (a) the potential of hierarchical Bayesian analysis to uncover previously unanticipated physical dependencies in the approximate model, and (b) how such insights can then be used to improve the model. In effect parametric dependencies found from the Bayesian analysis are used to improve structural aspects of the model. While we choose to illustrate the procedure in the context of a closure model for buoyancy-driven, variable-density turbulence, the statistical nature of the approach makes it more generally applicable. Towards addressing issues of increased computational cost associated with the procedure, we demonstrate the use of a neural network based surrogate in accelerating the posterior sampling process and point to recent developments in variational inference as an alternative methodology for greatly mitigating such costs. We conclude by suggesting that modern validation and uncertainty quantification techniques such as the ones we consider have a valuable role to play in the development and improvement of approximate models.
Procedural Synthesis of Remote Sensing Images for Robust Change Detection with Neural Networks
Kolos, Maria, Marin, Anton, Artemov, Alexey, Burnaev, Evgeny
Data-driven methods such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are known to deliver state-of-the-art performance on image recognition tasks when the training data are abundant. However, in some instances, such as change detection in remote sensing images, annotated data cannot be obtained in sufficient quantities. In this work, we propose a simple and efficient method for creating realistic targeted synthetic datasets in the remote sensing domain, leveraging the opportunities offered by game development engines. We provide a description of the pipeline for procedural geometry generation and rendering as well as an evaluation of the efficiency of produced datasets in a change detection scenario. Our evaluations demonstrate that our pipeline helps to improve the performance and convergence of deep learning models when the amount of real-world data is severely limited.
Robust sound event detection in bioacoustic sensor networks
Lostanlen, Vincent, Salamon, Justin, Farnsworth, Andrew, Kelling, Steve, Bello, Juan Pablo
Bioacoustic sensors, sometimes known as autonomous recording units (ARUs), can record sounds of wildlife over long periods of time in scalable and minimally invasive ways. Deriving per-species abundance estimates from these sensors requires detection, classification, and quantification of animal vocalizations as individual acoustic events. Yet, variability in ambient noise, both over time and across sensors, hinders the reliability of current automated systems for sound event detection (SED), such as convolutional neural networks (CNN) in the time-frequency domain. In this article, we develop, benchmark, and combine several machine listening techniques to improve the generalizability of SED models across heterogeneous acoustic environments. As a case study, we consider the problem of detecting avian flight calls from a ten-hour recording of nocturnal bird migration, recorded by a network of six ARUs in the presence of heterogeneous background noise. Starting from a CNN yielding state-of-the-art accuracy on this task, we introduce two noise adaptation techniques, respectively integrating short-term (60-millisecond) and long-term (30-minute) context. First, we apply per-channel energy normalization (PCEN) in the time-frequency domain, which applies short-term automatic gain control to every subband in the mel-frequency spectrogram. Secondly, we replace the last dense layer in the network by a context-adaptive neural network (CA-NN) layer, i.e. an affine layer whose weights are dynamically adapted at prediction time by an auxiliary network taking long-term summary statistics of spectrotemporal features as input. We show that both techniques are helpful and complementary. [...] We release a pre-trained version of our best performing system under the name of BirdVoxDetect, a ready-to-use detector of avian flight calls in field recordings.
Conformal Prediction Interval Estimations with an Application to Day-Ahead and Intraday Power Markets
Kath, Christopher, Ziel, Florian
We discuss a concept denoted as Conformal Prediction (CP) in this paper. While initially stemming from the world of machine learning, it was never applied or analyzed in the context of short-term electricity price forecasting. Therefore, we elaborate the aspects that render Conformal Prediction worthwhile to know and explain why its simple yet very efficient idea has worked in other fields of application and why its characteristics are promising for short-term power applications as well. We compare its performance with different state-of-the-art electricity price forecasting models such as quantile regression averaging (QRA) in an empirical out-of-sample study for three short-term electricity time series. We combine Conformal Prediction with various underlying point forecast models to demonstrate its versatility and behavior under changing conditions. Our findings suggest that Conformal Prediction yields sharp and reliable prediction intervals in short-term power markets. We further inspect the effect each of Conformal Prediction's model components has and provide a path-based guideline on how to find the best CP model for each market.
Artificial intelligence improves power transmission
To integrate volatile renewable sources into the energy supply, capacities of the power grid have to be increased. The need for new lines can be reduced by better utilization of existing lines as a function of weather conditions. To this end, researchers of Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) work on self-learning sensor networks to model the cooling effect of weather based on real data. In favorable conditions, the line's power transmission can be enhanced in this way. To transport power from producers to consumers, to prevent temporary shutdown of plants that generate power from regenerative sources, in particular at high wind intensities, and to ensure high supply security in general, considerable extension of the existing grid infrastructure is required.
This Chinese facial recognition start-up can identify a person in seconds
YITU is also expanding to help cities digitize data such as traffic patterns, energy supply information and infrastructure development. Now the company plans to move even further afield. In January YITU opened its first international office in Singapore, where it plans to hire more than 50 researchers, and the company recently formed a strategic cooperation with local governments and various organizations in Britain in the fields of public security, finance and health care. Although YITU's track record is outstanding thus far -- it won first place in the 2017 Face Recognition Prize Challenge organized by Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity for its highly acclaimed facial recognition devices, which boast a 95.5% accuracy rate -- the company still has work ahead to become the facial recognition leader in China. Chinese start-ups Megvii Technology and SenseTime are considered to have the most powerful facial recognition systems in the world.
Learning to Memorize in Neural Task-Oriented Dialogue Systems
In this thesis, we leverage the neural copy mechanism and memory-augmented neural networks (MANNs) to address existing challenge of neural task-oriented dialogue learning. We show the effectiveness of our strategy by achieving good performance in multi-domain dialogue state tracking, retrieval-based dialogue systems, and generation-based dialogue systems. We first propose a transferable dialogue state generator (TRADE) that leverages its copy mechanism to get rid of dialogue ontology and share knowledge between domains. We also evaluate unseen domain dialogue state tracking and show that TRADE enables zero-shot dialogue state tracking and can adapt to new few-shot domains without forgetting the previous domains. Second, we utilize MANNs to improve retrieval-based dialogue learning. They are able to capture dialogue sequential dependencies and memorize long-term information. We also propose a recorded delexicalization copy strategy to replace real entity values with ordered entity types. Our models are shown to surpass other retrieval baselines, especially when the conversation has a large number of turns. Lastly, we tackle generation-based dialogue learning with two proposed models, the memory-to-sequence (Mem2Seq) and global-to-local memory pointer network (GLMP). Mem2Seq is the first model to combine multi-hop memory attention with the idea of the copy mechanism. GLMP further introduces the concept of response sketching and double pointers copying. We show that GLMP achieves the state-of-the-art performance on human evaluation.