Energy
Responsive Planning and Recognition for Closed-Loop Interaction
Freedman, Richard G., Fung, Yi Ren, Ganchin, Roman, Zilberstein, Shlomo
Many intelligent systems currently interact with others using at least one of fixed communication inputs or preset responses, resulting in rigid interaction experiences and extensive efforts developing a variety of scenarios for the system. Fixed inputs limit the natural behavior of the user in order to effectively communicate, and preset responses prevent the system from adapting to the current situation unless it was specifically implemented. Closed-loop interaction instead focuses on dynamic responses that account for what the user is currently doing based on interpretations of their perceived activity. Agents employing closed-loop interaction can also monitor their interactions to ensure that the user responds as expected. We introduce a closed-loop interactive agent framework that integrates planning and recognition to predict what the user is trying to accomplish and autonomously decide on actions to take in response to these predictions. Based on a recent demonstration of such an assistive interactive agent in a turn-based simulated game, we also discuss new research challenges that are not present in the areas of artificial intelligence planning or recognition alone.
Department of Energy Announces $20 Million to Develop Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Tools
WASHINGTON, D.C. โ Today, the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) announced up to $20 million in funding to accelerate the incorporation of machine learning and artificial intelligence into energy technology and product design processes. The Design Intelligence for Formidable Energy Reduction Engendering Numerous Totally Impactful Advanced Technology Enhancements (DIFFERENTIATE) program seeks to enhance energy innovation by incorporating artificial intelligence and machine learning into energy technology development. "Artificial intelligence and machine learning has the potential to literally transform every aspect of the world as we know it, and accelerating this technology is crucial to strengthening our country's economic and national security," said U.S. Secretary of Energy Rick Perry. "DOE-fueled artificial intelligence is being utilized across all sectors, from strengthening cybersecurity and national security, increasing energy efficiency, optimizing grid security and resiliency, and developing innovative health solutions. The DIFFERENTIATE program is the latest example of DOE paving the way towards the New American Energy Era." In order to organize these efforts, DIFFERNTIATE identifies six general mathematical optimization problems that are common to many design processes. It then conceptualizes several machine learning tools that could help engineers execute and solve these problems in a manner that dramatically accelerates the pace of energy innovation.
NYC, get ready for the robots: The city needs a battle-plan for how automation will threaten people's jobs
Today, CUNY's continuing education programs teach job-specific tools ranging from business management to plumbing, but in-depth courses can pose a significant cost burden if not paid for by an employer. Lifelong learning dollars could also be used to earn specific industry-recognized credentials in fields like video production, solar installation, or IT support, or retrain for a tech career at a bootcamp like General Assembly or Flatiron School, which deliver a strong return on investment but come at a high upfront cost.
Baker Hughes, C3.ai launch reliability application via joint venture ZDNet
Analytics has evolved from the basics -- visualizations, historicals and dashboards -- to the more complex with recommendations and predictions of outcomes. Now it's time to step it up and get prescriptive. The next wave of IT innovation will be powered by artificial intelligence and machine learning. We look at the ways companies can take advantage of it and how to get started. Baker Hughes, a GE-owned oil and gas company, and C3.ai said the first application of its joint venture is generally available.
Learning First-Order Symbolic Planning Representations from Plain Graphs
One of the main obstacles for developing flexible AI system is the split between data-based learners and model-based solvers. Solvers such as classical planners are very flexible and can deal with a variety of problem instances and goals but require first-order symbolic models. Data-based learners, on the other hand, are robust but do not produce such representations. In this work we address this split by showing how the first-order symbolic representations that are used by planners can be learned from non-symbolic representations alone given by a number of observed system trajectories organized as graphs. The observations can be arbitrary, including raw images. What it is required is that two observations are different iff they proceed from different states. The representation learning problem is formulated as the problem of inferring the simplest planning instances over a common first-order domain that can generate the structures of the observed graphs. A slightly richer version of the problem is also considered where actions are also observed and the graphs are labeled. The problem is expressed and solved via a SAT formulation that is shown to produce first-order representations for domains like Gripper, Blocks, and Hanoi. The work suggests that the target symbolic representations for planning encode the structure of the observed state space, not the observations themselves, as assumed in deep learning approaches.
Hierarchical Foresight: Self-Supervised Learning of Long-Horizon Tasks via Visual Subgoal Generation
Video prediction models combined with planning algorithms have shown promise in enabling robots to learn to perform many vision-based tasks through only self-supervision, reaching novel goals in cluttered scenes with unseen objects. However, due to the compounding uncertainty in long horizon video prediction and poor scalability of sampling-based planning optimizers, one significant limitation of these approaches is the ability to plan over long horizons to reach distant goals. To that end, we propose a framework for subgoal generation and planning, hierarchical visual foresight (HVF), which generates subgoal images conditioned on a goal image, and uses them for planning. The subgoal images are directly optimized to decompose the task into easy to plan segments, and as a result, we observe that the method naturally identifies semantically meaningful states as subgoals. Across three out of four simulated vision-based manipulation tasks, we find that our method achieves nearly a 200% performance improvement over planning without subgoals and model-free RL approaches. Further, our experiments illustrate that our approach extends to real, cluttered visual scenes. Project page: https://sites.google.com/stanford.edu/hvf
Coarse-scale PDEs from fine-scale observations via machine learning
Lee, Seungjoon, Kooshkbaghi, Mahdi, Spiliotis, Konstantinos, Siettos, Constantinos I., Kevrekidis, Ioannis G.
Complex spatiotemporal dynamics of physicochemical processes are often modeled at a microscopic level (through e.g. atomistic, agent-based or lattice models) based on first principles. Some of these processes can also be successfully modeled at the macroscopic level using e.g. partial differential equations (PDEs) describing the evolution of the right few macroscopic observables (e.g. concentration and momentum fields). Deriving good macroscopic descriptions (the so-called "closure problem") is often a time-consuming process requiring deep understanding/intuition about the system of interest. Recent developments in data science provide alternative ways to effectively extract/learn accurate macroscopic descriptions approximating the underlying microscopic observations. In this paper, we introduce a data-driven framework for the identification of unavailable coarse-scale PDEs from microscopic observations via machine learning algorithms. Specifically, using Gaussian Processes, Artificial Neural Networks, and/or Diffusion Maps, the proposed framework uncovers the relation between the relevant macroscopic space fields and their time evolution (the right-hand-side of the explicitly unavailable macroscopic PDE). Interestingly, several choices equally representative of the data can be discovered. The framework will be illustrated through the data-driven discovery of macroscopic, concentration-level PDEs resulting from a fine-scale, Lattice Boltzmann level model of a reaction/transport process. Once the coarse evolution law is identified, it can be simulated to produce long-term macroscopic predictions. Different features (pros as well as cons) of alternative machine learning algorithms for performing this task (Gaussian Processes and Artificial Neural Networks), are presented and discussed.
Reinforcement Learning for Portfolio Management
T raditionally, mathematical formulations of dynamical systems in the context of Signal Processing and Control Theory have been a lynchpin of today's Financial Engineering. More recently, advances in sequential decision making, mainly through the concept of Reinforcement Learning, have been instrumental in the development of multistage stochastic optimization, a key component in sequential portfolio optimization (asset allocation) strategies. In this thesis, we develop a comprehensive account of the expressive power, modelling efficiency, and performance advantages of so called trading agents (i.e., Deep Soft Recurrent Q-Network (DSRQN) and Mixture of Score Machines (MSM)), based on both traditional system identification (model-based approach) as well as on context-independent agents (model-free approach). The analysis provides a conclusive support for the ability of model-free reinforcement learning methods to act as universal trading agents, which are not only capable of reducing the computational and memory complexity (owing to their linear scaling with size of the universe), but also serve as generalizing strategies across assets and markets, regardless of the trading universe on which they have been trained. The relatively low volume of daily returns in financial market data is addressed via data augmentation (a generative approach) and a choice of pre-training strategies, both of which are validated against current state-of-the-art models. For rigour, a risk-sensitive framework which includes transaction costs is considered, and its performance advantages are demonstrated in a variety of scenarios, from synthetic time-series (sinusoidal, sawtooth and chirp waves), ii simulated market series (surrogate data based), through to real market data (S&P 500 and EURO STOXX 50). The analysis and simulations confirm the superiority of universal model-free reinforcement learning agents over current portfolio management model in asset allocation strategies, with the achieved performance advantage of as much as 9.2% in annualized cumulative returns and 13.4% in annualized Sharpe Ratio.
Feature Engineering and Forecasting via Integration of Derivative-free Optimization and Ensemble of Sequence-to-sequence Networks: Renewable Energy Case Studies
Pirhooshyaran, Mohammad, Snyder, Lawrence V., Scheinberg, Katya
This research introduces a framework for forecasting, reconstruction and feature engineering of multivariate processes. We integrate derivative-free optimization with ensemble of sequence-to-sequence networks. We design a new resampling technique called additive which along with Bootstrap aggregating (bagging) resampling are applied to initialize the ensemble structure. We explore the proposed framework performance on three renewable energy sources wind, solar and ocean wave. We conduct several short- to long-term forecasts showing the superiority of the proposed method compare to numerous machine learning techniques. The findings indicate that the introduced method performs reasonably better when the forecasting horizon becomes longer. In addition, we modify the framework for automated feature selection. The model represents a clear interpretation of the selected features. We investigate the effects of different environmental and marine factors on the wind speed and ocean output power respectively and report the selected features. Moreover, we explore the online forecasting setting and illustrate that the model exceeds alternatives through different measurement errors.
AI, turning big data into business insights, by Microsoft and Schneider Electric
In 2012, 4.2 billion sensors were shipped for industrial use; in 2014, that figure skyrocketed to 23.6 billion.1 The Internet of Things has changed the industrial landscape, promising improved efficiency and production for everyone from shoe makers to milk processors to refineries to power plants. It's clear that companies do not need more data, however. In fact, "70% of captured production data goes unused."2 Nor do companies want more data.