Machine Learning (ML) algorithms have been used for assessing soil quality parameters along with non-destructive methodologies. Among spectroscopic analytical methodologies, energy dispersive X-ray fluorescence (EDXRF) is one of the more quick, environmentally friendly and less expensive when compared to conventional methods. However, some challenges in EDXRF spectral data analysis still demand more efficient methods capable of providing accurate outcomes. Using Multi-target Regression (MTR) methods, multiple parameters can be predicted, and also taking advantage of inter-correlated parameters the overall predictive performance can be improved. In this study, we proposed the Multi-target Stacked Generalisation (MTSG), a novel MTR method relying on learning from different regressors arranged in stacking structure for a boosted outcome. We compared MTSG and 5 MTR methods for predicting 10 parameters of soil fertility. Random Forest and Support Vector Machine (with linear and radial kernels) were used as learning algorithms embedded into each MTR method. Results showed the superiority of MTR methods over the Single-target Regression (the traditional ML method), reducing the predictive error for 5 parameters. Particularly, MTSG obtained the lowest error for phosphorus, total organic carbon and cation exchange capacity. When observing the relative performance of Support Vector Machine with a radial kernel, the prediction of base saturation percentage was improved in 19%. Finally, the proposed method was able to reduce the average error from 0.67 (single-target) to 0.64 analysing all targets, representing a global improvement of 4.48%.

In Financial Signal Processing, multiple time series such as financial indicators, stock prices and exchange rates are strongly coupled due to their dependence on the latent state of the market and therefore they are required to be jointly analysed. We focus on learning the relationships among financial time series by modelling them through a multi-output Gaussian process (MOGP) with expressive covariance functions. Learning these market dependencies among financial series is crucial for the imputation and prediction of financial observations. The proposed model is validated experimentally on two real-world financial datasets for which their correlations across channels are analysed. We compare our model against other MOGPs and the independent Gaussian process on real financial data.

Due to their high degree of expressiveness, neural networks have recently been used as surrogate models for mapping inputs of an engineering system to outputs of interest. Once trained, neural networks are computationally inexpensive to evaluate and remove the need for repeated evaluations of computationally expensive models in uncertainty quantification applications. However, given the highly parameterized construction of neural networks, especially deep neural networks, accurate training often requires large amounts of simulation data that may not be available in the case of computationally expensive systems. In this paper, to alleviate this issue for uncertainty propagation, we explore the application of transfer learning techniques using training data generated from both high- and low-fidelity models. We explore two strategies for coupling these two datasets during the training procedure, namely, the standard transfer learning and the bi-fidelity weighted learning. In the former approach, a neural network model mapping the inputs to the outputs of interest is trained based on the low-fidelity data. The high-fidelity data is then used to adapt the parameters of the upper layer(s) of the low-fidelity network, or train a simpler neural network to map the output of the low-fidelity network to that of the high-fidelity model. In the latter approach, the entire low-fidelity network parameters are updated using data generated via a Gaussian process model trained with a small high-fidelity dataset. The parameter updates are performed via a variant of stochastic gradient descent with learning rates given by the Gaussian process model. Using three numerical examples, we illustrate the utility of these bi-fidelity transfer learning methods where we focus on accuracy improvement achieved by transfer learning over standard training approaches.

We consider the commonly encountered situation (e.g., in weather forecasting) where the goal is to predict the time evolution of a large, spatiotemporally chaotic dynamical system when we have access to both time series data of previous system states and an imperfect model of the full system dynamics. Specifically, we attempt to utilize machine learning as the essential tool for integrating the use of past data into predictions. In order to facilitate scalability to the common scenario of interest where the spatiotemporally chaotic system is very large and complex, we propose combining two approaches:(i) a parallel machine learning prediction scheme; and (ii) a hybrid technique, for a composite prediction system composed of a knowledge-based component and a machine-learning-based component. We demonstrate that not only can this method combining (i) and (ii) be scaled to give excellent performance for very large systems, but also that the length of time series data needed to train our multiple, parallel machine learning components is dramatically less than that necessary without parallelization. Furthermore, considering cases where computational realization of the knowledge-based component does not resolve subgrid-scale processes, our scheme is able to use training data to incorporate the effect of the unresolved short-scale dynamics upon the resolved longer-scale dynamics ("subgrid-scale closure").

Recurrent and convolutional neural networks are the most common architectures used for time series forecasting in deep learning literature. These networks use parameter sharing by repeating a set of fixed architectures with fixed parameters over time or space. The result is that the overall architecture is time-invariant (shift-invariant in the spatial domain) or stationary. We argue that time-invariance can reduce the capacity to perform multi-step-ahead forecasting, where modelling the dynamics at a range of scales and resolutions is required. We propose ForecastNet which uses a deep feed-forward architecture to provide a time-variant model. An additional novelty of ForecastNet is interleaved outputs, which we show assist in mitigating vanishing gradients. ForecastNet is demonstrated to outperform statistical and deep learning benchmark models on several datasets.

We study the information content of nuclear masses from the perspective of global models of nuclear binding energies. To this end, we employ a number of statistical methods and diagnostic tools, including Bayesian calibration, Bayesian model averaging, chi-square correlation analysis, principal component analysis, and empirical coverage probability. Using Bayesian framework, we investigate the structure of the 4-parameter Liquid Drop Model by considering discrepant mass domains for calibration. We then use the chi-square correlation framework to analyze the 14-parameter Skyrme energy density functional calibrated using homogeneous and heterogeneous datasets. We show that a quite dramatic parameter reduction can be achieved in both cases. The advantage of the Bayesian model averaging for improving the uncertainty quantification is demonstrated. The statistical approaches used are pedagogically described; in this context this work can serve as a guide for future applications.

The Federal Highway Administration launched an Exploratory Advanced Research Program this week to usher in "transformational changes and truly revolutionary advances" in highway engineering and intermodal transportation on roads across the United States. According to a new broad agency announcement, the administration is accepting research effort proposals--with the deliberate intent of awarding either contracts or cooperative agreements--that address three trendy topics in emerging tech: blockchain for highway transportation, artificial intelligence for highway transportation, and incorporating trashed plastic into asphalt cement to reduce waste. "This program supports scientific investigations and studies that advance the current knowledge and state-of-the-art in the sciences and technologies employed in the planning, design, construction, operation, maintenance and management of the nation's highways," officials wrote in the announcement. "Strategically, this research will enable and expedite the development of revolutionary approaches, methodologies, and breakthroughs required to drive innovation and greatly improve the efficiency of highway transportation." The agency's EAR programs aim to produce strong public-private partnerships that catalyze solutions through "longer-term, higher risk" research.

Australia's extended and disastrous bushfire season has brought into sharp relief the high economic and personal cost of climate change. That economic impact is increasingly recognised around the world as a major business risk. In California, for instance, it led to what is now referred to as the first climate change bankruptcy: the failure of Gas and Electric. The company was brought low by litigation after its equipment was blamed for the Californian wildfires. It is not the only example.

We study few-shot supervised domain adaptation (DA) for regression problems, where only a few labeled target domain data and many labeled source domain data are available. Many of the current DA methods base their transfer assumptions on either parametrized distribution shift or apparent distribution similarities, e.g., identical conditionals or small distributional discrepancies. However, these assumptions may preclude the possibility of adaptation from intricately shifted and apparently very different distributions. To overcome this problem, we propose mechanism transfer, a meta-distributional scenario in which a data generating mechanism is invariant among domains. This transfer assumption can accommodate nonparametric shifts resulting in apparently different distributions while providing a solid statistical basis for DA. We take the structural equations in causal modeling as an example and propose a novel DA method, which is shown to be useful both theoretically and experimentally. Our method can be seen as the first attempt to fully leverage the structural causal models for DA.

Northern California's proactive power outages were not necessary last fall. Digital Twin technology can predict utility line failures and turn off power in milliseconds to avoid the potential of sparks igniting the surrounding area. Digital twin technologies are gaining traction across industries and use cases. Initially devised as a means of monitoring assets and production settings in manufacturing, this technology has quietly seeped into other verticals like hospitality, construction, and building management and soon, electricity delivery. The premier problem digital twins will solve is predicting power grid failure, which would alleviate the social, economic, and political issues that resulted from efforts to reduce the incidence and degree of catastrophes, property loss, and deaths stemming from downstream effects of power grid failure--such as recurring wildfires.