Energy
BMI: A Behavior Measurement Indicator for Fuel Poverty Using Aggregated Load Readings from Smart Meters
Fuel poverty affects between 50 and 125 million households in Europe and is a significant issue for both developed and developing countries globally. This means that fuel poor residents are unable to adequately warm their home and run the necessary energy services needed for lighting, cooking, hot water, and electrical appliances. The problem is complex but is typically caused by three factors; low income, high energy costs, and energy inefficient homes. In the United Kingdom (UK), 4 million families are currently living in fuel poverty. Those in series financial difficulty are either forced to self-disconnect or have their services terminated by energy providers. Fuel poverty contributed to 10,000 reported deaths in England in the winter of 2016-2107 due to homes being cold. While it is recognized by governments as a social, public health and environmental policy issue, the European Union (EU) has failed to provide a common definition of fuel poverty or a conventional set of indicators to measure it. This chapter discusses current fuel poverty strategies across the EU and proposes a new and foundational behavior measurement indicator designed to directly assess and monitor fuel poverty risks in households using smart meters, Consumer Access Device (CAD) data and machine learning. By detecting Activities of Daily Living (ADLS) through household appliance usage, it is possible to spot the early signs of financial difficulty and identify when support packages are required.
Meet Spot, the quadruped robot
Sign in to report inappropriate content. Spot, the quadruped robot has been developed by Boston Dynamics. Cognite and Aker BP have tested Spot's mobility in simulated oil and gas environments to ensure that it can access locations in these facilities too difficult to access through traditional automation.
Maintaining the equipment that powers our world
Most people only think about the systems that power their cities when something goes wrong. Unfortunately, many people in the San Francisco Bay Area had a lot to think about recently when their utility company began scheduled power outages in an attempt to prevent wildfires. The decision came after devastating fires last year were found to be the result of faulty equipment, including transformers. Transformers are the links between power plants, power transmission lines, and distribution networks. If something goes wrong with a transformer, entire power plants can go dark.
Modeling Natural Sounds with Modulation Cascade Processes
Turner, Richard, Sahani, Maneesh
Natural sounds are structured on many time-scales. A typical segment of speech, for example, contains features that span four orders of magnitude: Sentences ( 1s); phonemes ( 0.1s); glottal pulses ( 0.01s); and formants ( 0.001s). The auditory system uses information from each of these time-scales to solve complicated tasks such as auditory scene analysis. One route toward understanding how auditory processing accomplishes this analysis is to build neuroscience-inspired algorithms which solve similar tasks and to compare the properties of these algorithms with properties of auditory processing. There is however a discord: Current machine-audition algorithms largely concentrate on the shorter time-scale structures in sounds, and the longer structures are ignored.
Learning to Explore and Exploit in POMDPs
Cai, Chenghui, Liao, Xuejun, Carin, Lawrence
A fundamental objective in reinforcement learning is the maintenance of a proper balance between exploration and exploitation. This problem becomes more challenging when the agent can only partially observe the states of its environment. In this paper we propose a dual-policy method for jointly learning the agent behavior and the balance between exploration exploitation, in partially observable environments. The method subsumes traditional exploration, in which the agent takes actions to gather information about the environment, and active learning, in which the agent queries an oracle for optimal actions (with an associated cost for employing the oracle). The form of the employed exploration is dictated by the specific problem.
Auto-Regressive HMM Inference with Incomplete Data for Short-Horizon Wind Forecasting
Barber, Chris, Bockhorst, Joseph, Roebber, Paul
Accurate short-term wind forecasts (STWFs), with time horizons from 0.5 to 6 hours, are essential for efficient integration of wind power to the electrical power grid. Physical models based on numerical weather predictions are currently not competitive, and research on machine learning approaches is ongoing. Two major challenges confronting these efforts are missing observations and weather-regime induced dependency shifts among wind variables at geographically distributed sites. In this paper we introduce approaches that address both of these challenges. We describe a new regime-aware approach to STWF that use auto-regressive hidden Markov models (AR-HMM), a subclass of conditional linear Gaussian (CLG) models.
Optimization-Based MCMC Methods for Nonlinear Hierarchical Statistical Inverse Problems
Bardsley, Johnathan, Cui, Tiangang
In many hierarchical inverse problems, not only do we want to estimate high- or infinite-dimensional model parameters in the parameter-to-observable maps, but we also have to estimate hyperparameters that represent critical assumptions in the statistical and mathematical modeling processes. As a joint effect of high-dimensionality, nonlinear dependence, and non-concave structures in the joint posterior posterior distribution over model parameters and hyperparameters, solving inverse problems in the hierarchical Bayesian setting poses a significant computational challenge. In this work, we aim to develop scalable optimization-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for solving hierarchical Bayesian inverse problems with nonlinear parameter-to-observable maps and a broader class of hyperparameters. Our algorithmic development is based on the recently developed scalable randomize-then-optimize (RTO) method [4] for exploring the high- or infinite-dimensional model parameter space. By using RTO either as a proposal distribution in a Metropolis-within-Gibbs update or as a biasing distribution in the pseudo-marginal MCMC [2], we are able to design efficient sampling tools for hierarchical Bayesian inversion. In particular, the integration of RTO and the pseudo-marginal MCMC has sampling performance robust to model parameter dimensions. We also extend our methods to nonlinear inverse problems with Poisson-distributed measurements. Numerical examples in PDE-constrained inverse problems and positron emission tomography (PET) are used to demonstrate the performance of our methods.
HighRes-net: Recursive Fusion for Multi-Frame Super-Resolution of Satellite Imagery
Deudon, Michel, Kalaitzis, Alfredo, Goytom, Israel, Arefin, Md Rifat, Lin, Zhichao, Sankaran, Kris, Michalski, Vincent, Kahou, Samira E., Cornebise, Julien, Bengio, Yoshua
Generative deep learning has sparked a new wave of Super-Resolution (SR) algorithms that enhance single images with impressive aesthetic results, albeit with imaginary details. Multi-frame Super-Resolution (MFSR) offers a more grounded approach to the ill-posed problem, by conditioning on multiple low-resolution views. This is important for satellite monitoring of human impact on the planet -- from deforestation, to human rights violations -- that depend on reliable imagery. To this end, we present HighRes-net, the first deep learning approach to MFSR that learns its sub-tasks in an end-to-end fashion: (i) co-registration, (ii) fusion, (iii) up-sampling, and (iv) registration-at-the-loss. Co-registration of low-resolution views is learned implicitly through a reference-frame channel, with no explicit registration mechanism. We learn a global fusion operator that is applied recursively on an arbitrary number of low-resolution pairs. We introduce a registered loss, by learning to align the SR output to a ground-truth through ShiftNet. We show that by learning deep representations of multiple views, we can super-resolve low-resolution signals and enhance Earth Observation data at scale. Our approach recently topped the European Space Agency's MFSR competition on real-world satellite imagery.
Adaptive Learning of Smoothing Functions: Application to Electricity Load Forecasting
Ba, Amadou, Sinn, Mathieu, Goude, Yannig, Pompey, Pascal
This paper proposes an efficient online learning algorithm to track the smoothing functions of Additive Models. The key idea is to combine the linear representation of Additive Models with a Recursive Least Squares (RLS) filter. In order to quickly track changes in the model and put more weight on recent data, the RLS filter uses a forgetting factor which exponentially weights down observations by the order of their arrival. The tracking behaviour is further enhanced by using an adaptive forgetting factor which is updated based on the gradient of the a priori errors. Using results from Lyapunov stability theory, upper bounds for the learning rate are analyzed.
Diversity-Driven Exploration Strategy for Deep Reinforcement Learning
Hong, Zhang-Wei, Shann, Tzu-Yun, Su, Shih-Yang, Chang, Yi-Hsiang, Fu, Tsu-Jui, Lee, Chun-Yi
Efficient exploration remains a challenging research problem in reinforcement learning, especially when an environment contains large state spaces, deceptive local optima, or sparse rewards. To tackle this problem, we present a diversity-driven approach for exploration, which can be easily combined with both off- and on-policy reinforcement learning algorithms. We show that by simply adding a distance measure to the loss function, the proposed methodology significantly enhances an agent's exploratory behaviors, and thus preventing the policy from being trapped in local optima. We further propose an adaptive scaling method for stabilizing the learning process. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in huge 2D gridworlds and a variety of benchmark environments, including Atari 2600 and MuJoCo.