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China launches first AI earthquake monitoring system

#artificialintelligence

After six years of study, researchers from the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) have developed the world's first artificial intelligence seismic monitoring system. This AI earthquake tracking system can report all source parameters within two seconds. The team, led by Professor Zhao Cuiping at the Earthquake Prediction Institute of China Seismological Administration, said the system underwent testing at experimental fields in the provinces of Sichuan and Yunnan for a year, where all parameters were reported in one to two seconds. It can also operate in real-time to process huge seismic network data, mitigating labor pressure and lessening false alarms. When an earthquake occurs, the wave signal is transmitted to the seismic network.


Online Batch Decision-Making with High-Dimensional Covariates

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose and investigate a class of new algorithms for sequential decision making that interacts with \textit{a batch of users} simultaneously instead of \textit{a user} at each decision epoch. This type of batch models is motivated by interactive marketing and clinical trial, where a group of people are treated simultaneously and the outcomes of the whole group are collected before the next stage of decision. In such a scenario, our goal is to allocate a batch of treatments to maximize treatment efficacy based on observed high-dimensional user covariates. We deliver a solution, named \textit{Teamwork LASSO Bandit algorithm}, that resolves a batch version of explore-exploit dilemma via switching between teamwork stage and selfish stage during the whole decision process. This is made possible based on statistical properties of LASSO estimate of treatment efficacy that adapts to a sequence of batch observations. In general, a rate of optimal allocation condition is proposed to delineate the exploration and exploitation trade-off on the data collection scheme, which is sufficient for LASSO to identify the optimal treatment for observed user covariates. An upper bound on expected cumulative regret of the proposed algorithm is provided.


Deep Randomized Neural Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Randomized Neural Networks explore the behavior of neural systems where the majority of connections are fixed, either in a stochastic or a deterministic fashion. Typical examples of such systems consist of multi-layered neural network architectures where the connections to the hidden layer(s) are left untrained after initialization. Limiting the training algorithms to operate on a reduced set of weights inherently characterizes the class of Randomized Neural Networks with a number of intriguing features. Among them, the extreme efficiency of the resulting learning processes is undoubtedly a striking advantage with respect to fully trained architectures. Besides, despite the involved simplifications, randomized neural systems possess remarkable properties both in practice, achieving state-of-the-art results in multiple domains, and theoretically, allowing to analyze intrinsic properties of neural architectures (e.g. before training of the hidden layers' connections). In recent years, the study of Randomized Neural Networks has been extended towards deep architectures, opening new research directions to the design of effective yet extremely efficient deep learning models in vectorial as well as in more complex data domains. This chapter surveys all the major aspects regarding the design and analysis of Randomized Neural Networks, and some of the key results with respect to their approximation capabilities. In particular, we first introduce the fundamentals of randomized neural models in the context of feed-forward networks (i.e., Random Vector Functional Link and equivalent models) and convolutional filters, before moving to the case of recurrent systems (i.e., Reservoir Computing networks). For both, we focus specifically on recent results in the domain of deep randomized systems, and (for recurrent models) their application to structured domains.


Learning in Markov Decision Processes under Constraints

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider reinforcement learning (RL) in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) in which at each time step the agent, in addition to earning a reward, also incurs an $M$ dimensional vector of costs. The objective is to design a learning rule that maximizes the cumulative reward earned over a finite time horizon of $T$ steps, while simultaneously ensuring that the cumulative cost expenditures are bounded appropriately. The considerations on the cumulative cost expenditures is in departure from the existing RL literature, in that the agent now additionally needs to balance the cost expenses in an \emph{online manner}, while simultaneously performing optimally the exploration-exploitation trade-off typically encountered in RL tasks. This is challenging since either of the duo objectives of exploration and exploitation necessarily require the agent to expend resources. When the constraints are placed on the average costs, we present a version of UCB algorithm and prove that its reward as well as cost regrets are upper-bounded as $O\left(T_{M}S\sqrt{AT\log(T)}\right)$, where $T_{M}$ is the mixing time of the MDP, $S$ is the number of states, $A$ is the number of actions, and $T$ is the time horizon. We further show how to modify the algorithm in order to reduce regrets of a desired subset of the $M$ costs, at the expense of increasing the regrets of rewards and the remaining costs. We then consider RL under the constraint that the vector comprising of the cumulative cost expenditures until each time $t\le T$ must be less than $\mathbf{c}^{ub}t$. We propose a "finite ($B$)-state" algorithm and show that its average reward is within $O\left(e^{-B}\right)$ of $r^{\star}$, the latter being the optimal average reward under average cost constraints.


Distributionally Robust Chance Constrained Programming with Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs)

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper presents a novel deep learning based data-driven optimization method. A novel generative adversarial network (GAN) based data-driven distributionally robust chance constrained programming framework is proposed. GAN is applied to fully extract distributional information from historical data in a nonparametric and unsupervised way without a priori approximation or assumption. Since GAN utilizes deep neural networks, complicated data distributions and modes can be learned, and it can model uncertainty efficiently and accurately. Distributionally robust chance constrained programming takes into consideration ambiguous probability distributions of uncertain parameters. To tackle the computational challenges, sample average approximation method is adopted, and the required data samples are generated by GAN in an end-to-end way through the differentiable networks. The proposed framework is then applied to supply chain optimization under demand uncertainty. The applicability of the proposed approach is illustrated through a county-level case study of a spatially explicit biofuel supply chain in Illinois.


Can AI bring down network energy costs?

#artificialintelligence

Data volumes in mobile networks are increasing at an unprecedented rate. In our latest mobility report, we forecast that mobile data traffic will grow fourfold by 2025, reaching up to 160 exabytes (EB) per month. This is amazing of course and offers all kinds of opportunities for communications service providers, but there is also a potential downside to this rapid surge in data traffic: its impact on the energy consumption and carbon footprint of mobile networks. That's not the only downside for communications service providers, as it also raises a significant cost concern. As we found in our AI report, the demand to reduce operational costs already ranks among the top priorities for today's operators.


Global AI in Energy Market to Reach $7.78 Billion by 2024

#artificialintelligence

According to a new market intelligence report by BIS Research titled'Global Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Energy Market – Analysis and Forecast, 2019-2024', the artificial intelligence in energy market is expected to reach $7.78 billion by 2024. The market is projected to witness a CAGR of 22.49% from 2019 to 2024. This growth is anticipated to be driven by the demand for increasing operational efficiency, rising concern for energy efficiency, growing market penetration of decentralized power generation, and rising concern for battery storage systems. Browse more than 60 Data Tables and 150 Figures spread through 259 Pages and in-depth ToC on "Global Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Energy Market". Artificial intelligence utilizes advanced algorithms and stacks of data accumulated from the source to provide systems and machines with the ability to perceive, think, calculate, and analyze information like a human brain.


Minimax Confidence Interval for Off-Policy Evaluation and Policy Optimization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study minimax methods for off-policy evaluation (OPE) using value-functions and marginalized importance weights. Despite that they hold promises of overcoming the exponential variance in traditional importance sampling, several key problems remain: (1) They require function approximation and are generally biased. For the sake of trustworthy OPE, is there anyway to quantify the biases? (2) They are split into two styles ("weight-learning" vs "value-learning"). Can we unify them? In this paper we answer both questions positively. By slightly altering the derivation of previous methods (one from each style; Uehara et al., 2019), we unify them into a single confidence interval (CI) that automatically comes with a special type of double robustness: when either the value-function or importance weight class is well-specified, the CI is valid and its length quantifies the misspecification of the other class. We can also tell which class is misspecified, which provides useful diagnostic information for the design of function approximation. Our CI also provides a unified view of and new insights to some recent methods: for example, one side of the CI recovers a version of AlgaeDICE (Nachum et al., 2019b), and we show that the two sides need to be used together and either alone may incur doubled approximation error as a point estimate. We further examine the potential of applying these bounds to two long-standing problems: off-policy policy optimization with poor data coverage (i.e., exploitation), and systematic exploration. With a well-specified value-function class, we show that optimizing the lower and the upper bounds lead to effective exploitation and exploration, respectively. Our results also suggests an interesting assymetry between exploration and exploitation, that the former might require substantially weaker realizability assumptions than the latter.


Structured Linear Contextual Bandits: A Sharp and Geometric Smoothed Analysis

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bandit learning algorithms typically involve the balance of exploration and exploitation. However, in many practical applications, worst-case scenarios needing systematic exploration are seldom encountered. In this work, we consider a smoothed setting for structured linear contextual bandits where the adversarial contexts are perturbed by Gaussian noise and the unknown parameter $\theta^*$ has structure, e.g., sparsity, group sparsity, low rank, etc. We propose simple greedy algorithms for both the single- and multi-parameter (i.e., different parameter for each context) settings and provide a unified regret analysis for $\theta^*$ with any assumed structure. The regret bounds are expressed in terms of geometric quantities such as Gaussian widths associated with the structure of $\theta^*$. We also obtain sharper regret bounds compared to earlier work for the unstructured $\theta^*$ setting as a consequence of our improved analysis. We show there is implicit exploration in the smoothed setting where a simple greedy algorithm works.


Lipschitz standardization for robust multivariate learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Current trends in machine learning rely on out-of-the-box gradient-based approaches. With the aim of mitigating numerical errors and to improve the convergence of the learning process, a common empirical practice is to standardize or normalize the data. However, there is a lack of theoretical analysis regarding why and when these methods result in an improvement of the learning process. In this work, we first study these methods in the context of black-box variational inference, specifically analyzing the effect that scaling the data has on the smoothness of the optimization landscape. Our analysis shows that no general rule applies in order to decide which of the existing data scaling methods, or even if they, will improve the learning process. Second, we highlight the issues that arise when dealing with multivariate data, due to the discrepancy in smoothness of the likelihood functions for different variables, and the inability to scale discrete data. Finally, we propose a novel Lipschitz standardization, and its extension for discrete data, which overcomes the aforementioned limitations. Specifically, as backed by our experiments, Lipschitz standardization i) favors a fairer learning across different variables in the data; and ii) results in faster and more accurate learning.