Data-space inversion (DSI) and related procedures represent a family of methods applicable for data assimilation in subsurface flow settings. These methods differ from model-based techniques in that they provide only posterior predictions for quantities (time series) of interest, not posterior models with calibrated parameters. DSI methods require a large number of flow simulations to first be performed on prior geological realizations. Given observed data, posterior predictions can then be generated directly. DSI operates in a Bayesian setting and provides posterior samples of the data vector. In this work we develop and evaluate a new approach for data parameterization in DSI. Parameterization reduces the number of variables to determine in the inversion, and it maintains the physical character of the data variables. The new parameterization uses a recurrent autoencoder (RAE) for dimension reduction, and a long-short-term memory (LSTM) network to represent flow-rate time series. The RAE-based parameterization is combined with an ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ESMDA) for posterior generation. Results are presented for two- and three-phase flow in a 2D channelized system and a 3D multi-Gaussian model. The RAE procedure, along with existing DSI treatments, are assessed through comparison to reference rejection sampling (RS) results. The new DSI methodology is shown to consistently outperform existing approaches, in terms of statistical agreement with RS results. The method is also shown to accurately capture derived quantities, which are computed from variables considered directly in DSI. This requires correlation and covariance between variables to be properly captured, and accuracy in these relationships is demonstrated. The RAE-based parameterization developed here is clearly useful in DSI, and it may also find application in other subsurface flow problems.

We introduce an optimized physics-informed neural network (PINN) trained to solve the problem of identifying and characterizing a surface breaking crack in a metal plate. PINNs are neural networks that can combine data and physics in the learning process by adding the residuals of a system of Partial Differential Equations to the loss function. Our PINN is supervised with realistic ultrasonic surface acoustic wave data acquired at a frequency of 5 MHz. The ultrasonic surface wave data is represented as a surface deformation on the top surface of a metal plate, measured by using the method of laser vibrometry. The PINN is physically informed by the acoustic wave equation and its convergence is sped up using adaptive activation functions. The adaptive activation function uses a scalable hyperparameter in the activation function, which is optimized to achieve best performance of the network as it changes dynamically the topology of the loss function involved in the optimization process. The usage of adaptive activation function significantly improves the convergence, notably observed in the current study. We use PINNs to estimate the speed of sound of the metal plate, which we do with an error of 1\%, and then, by allowing the speed of sound to be space dependent, we identify and characterize the crack as the positions where the speed of sound has decreased. Our study also shows the effect of sub-sampling of the data on the sensitivity of sound speed estimates. More broadly, the resulting model shows a promising deep neural network model for ill-posed inverse problems.

Restricted Boltzmann Machine (RBM) is an energy based, undirected graphical model. It is commonly used for unsupervised and supervised machine learning. Typically, RBM is trained using contrastive divergence (CD). However, training with CD is slow and does not estimate exact gradient of log-likelihood cost function. In this work, the model expectation of gradient learning for RBM has been calculated using a quantum annealer (D-Wave 2000Q), which is much faster than Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) used in CD. Training and classification results are compared with CD. The classification accuracy results indicate similar performance of both methods. Image reconstruction as well as log-likelihood calculations are used to compare the performance of quantum and classical algorithms for RBM training. It is shown that the samples obtained from quantum annealer can be used to train a RBM on a 64-bit `bars and stripes' data set with classification performance similar to a RBM trained with CD. Though training based on CD showed improved learning performance, training using a quantum annealer eliminates computationally expensive MCMC steps of CD.

The canonical solution methodology for finite constrained Markov decision processes (CMDPs), where the objective is to maximize the expected infinite-horizon discounted rewards subject to the expected infinite-horizon discounted costs constraints, is based on convex linear programming. In this brief, we first prove that the optimization objective in the dual linear program of a finite CMDP is a piece-wise linear convex function (PWLC) with respect to the Lagrange penalty multipliers. Next, we propose a novel two-level Gradient-Aware Search (GAS) algorithm which exploits the PWLC structure to find the optimal state-value function and Lagrange penalty multipliers of a finite CMDP. The proposed algorithm is applied in two stochastic control problems with constraints: robot navigation in a grid world and solar-powered unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-based wireless network management. We empirically compare the convergence performance of the proposed GAS algorithm with binary search (BS), Lagrangian primal-dual optimization (PDO), and Linear Programming (LP). Compared with benchmark algorithms, it is shown that the proposed GAS algorithm converges to the optimal solution faster, does not require hyper-parameter tuning, and is not sensitive to initialization of the Lagrange penalty multiplier.

In the field of numerical weather prediction (NWP), the probabilistic distribution of the future state of the atmosphere is sampled with Monte-Carlo-like simulations, called ensembles. These ensembles have deficiencies (such as conditional biases) that can be corrected thanks to statistical post-processing methods. Several ensembles exist and may be corrected with different statistiscal methods. A further step is to combine these raw or post-processed ensembles. The theory of prediction with expert advice allows us to build combination algorithms with theoretical guarantees on the forecast performance. This article adapts this theory to the case of probabilistic forecasts issued as step-wise cumulative distribution functions (CDF). The theory is applied to wind speed forecasting, by combining several raw or post-processed ensembles, considered as CDFs. The second goal of this study is to explore the use of two forecast performance criteria: the Continous ranked probability score (CRPS) and the Jolliffe-Primo test. Comparing the results obtained with both criteria leads to reconsidering the usual way to build skillful probabilistic forecasts, based on the minimization of the CRPS. Minimizing the CRPS does not necessarily produce reliable forecasts according to the Jolliffe-Primo test. The Jolliffe-Primo test generally selects reliable forecasts, but could lead to issuing suboptimal forecasts in terms of CRPS. It is proposed to use both criterion to achieve reliable and skillful probabilistic forecasts.

Deep below the Pacific Northwest is an underwater forest of massive hydrothermal chimneys that stretch for miles across the seafloor. At the Endeavour Segment of the Juan de Fuca Ridge, located 220 miles northwest of Washington State, the seabed is ripping apart and underwater geysers and vents are still forming. Using sonar ships and underwater vehicles, researchers have mapped this area for the first time to reveal 527 chimneys - with some standing nearly 90 feet tall. The spirals are created from a buildup of minerals that flow to the surface in heated liquid -- as hot as 750 degrees Fahrenheit. The hydrothermal chimneys, known as the Endeavour vents, are located in a long, narrow valley that stretches about 8.6 miles long and almost a mile wide.

The importance of start-ups and climate tech companies in advancing the use of machine learning to combat climate change was emphasized at a recent online workshop. May 6, 2020 pv magazineAcademics from a group devoted to considering how machine learning can help combat climate change have spoken of the response to a recent workshop which was moved online because of the Covid-19 crisis.The Climate Change AI group hosted a'tackling climate change with machine learning' workshop during this year's International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR) event."We've "These forecasts can then be sold to electricity suppliers …

IoT is drastically changing the world for the better. There was a time when internet connectivity was available only on phones and computers. In the past decade, this focus has shifted to all technologies. Gradually, we are seeing the development of devices that connect to the internet. All these devices collect and share data to make our lives easier. You must know what IoT is by now, but for general understanding IoT is a broad umbrella.

We study the problem of learning exploration-exploitation strategies that effectively adapt to dynamic environments, where the task may change over time. While RNN-based policies could in principle represent such strategies, in practice their training time is prohibitive and the learning process often converges to poor solutions. In this paper, we consider the case where the agent has access to a description of the task (e.g., a task id or task parameters) at training time, but not at test time. We propose a novel algorithm that regularizes the training of an RNN-based policy using informed policies trained to maximize the reward in each task. This dramatically reduces the sample complexity of training RNN-based policies, without losing their representational power. As a result, our method learns exploration strategies that efficiently balance between gathering information about the unknown and changing task and maximizing the reward over time. We test the performance of our algorithm in a variety of environments where tasks may vary within each episode.

To build Sounding Board, we develop a system architecture that is capable of accommodating dialog strategies that we designed for socialbot conversations. The architecture consists of a multi-dimensional language understanding module for analyzing user utterances, a hierarchical dialog management framework for dialog context tracking and complex dialog control, and a language generation process that realizes the response plan and makes adjustments for speech synthesis. Additionally, we construct a new knowledge base to power the socialbot by collecting social chat content from a variety of sources. An important contribution of the system is the synergy between the knowledge base and the dialog management, i.e., the use of a graph structure to organize the knowledge base that makes dialog control very efficient in bringing related content to the discussion. Using the data collected from Sounding Board during the competition, we carry out in-depth analyses of socialbot conversations and user ratings which provide valuable insights in evaluation methods for socialbots. We additionally investigate a new approach for system evaluation and diagnosis that allows scoring individual dialog segments in the conversation. Finally, observing that socialbots suffer from the issue of shallow conversations about topics associated with unstructured data, we study the problem of enabling extended socialbot conversations grounded on a document. To bring together machine reading and dialog control techniques, a graph-based document representation is proposed, together with methods for automatically constructing the graph. Using the graph-based representation, dialog control can be carried out by retrieving nodes or moving along edges in the graph. To illustrate the usage, a mixed-initiative dialog strategy is designed for socialbot conversations on news articles.