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A systematic review and taxonomy of explanations in decision support and recommender systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With the recent advances in the field of artificial intelligence, an increasing number of decision-making tasks are delegated to software systems. A key requirement for the success and adoption of such systems is that users must trust system choices or even fully automated decisions. To achieve this, explanation facilities have been widely investigated as a means of establishing trust in these systems since the early years of expert systems. With today's increasingly sophisticated machine learning algorithms, new challenges in the context of explanations, accountability, and trust towards such systems constantly arise. In this work, we systematically review the literature on explanations in advice-giving systems. This is a family of systems that includes recommender systems, which is one of the most successful classes of advice-giving software in practice. We investigate the purposes of explanations as well as how they are generated, presented to users, and evaluated. As a result, we derive a novel comprehensive taxonomy of aspects to be considered when designing explanation facilities for current and future decision support systems. The taxonomy includes a variety of different facets, such as explanation objective, responsiveness, content and presentation. Moreover, we identified several challenges that remain unaddressed so far, for example related to fine-grained issues associated with the presentation of explanations and how explanation facilities are evaluated.


Root Cause Analysis in Lithium-Ion Battery Production with FMEA-Based Large-Scale Bayesian Network

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The production of lithium-ion battery cells is characterized by a high degree of complexity due to numerous cause-effect relationships between process characteristics. Knowledge about the multi-stage production is spread among several experts, rendering tasks as failure analysis challenging. In this paper, a new method is presented that includes expert knowledge acquisition in production ramp-up by combining Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) with a Bayesian Network. Special algorithms are presented that help detect and resolve inconsistencies between the expert-provided parameters which are bound to occur when collecting knowledge from several process experts. We show the effectiveness of this holistic method by building up a large scale, cross-process Bayesian Failure Network in lithium-ion battery production and its application for root cause analysis.


Investing $3,000 in These Artificial Intelligence Stocks Is a Smart Move - The Motley Fool Canada

#artificialintelligence

Canadian investors have had a lot to digest in the first half of 2020. From oil price wars to a global pandemic, these are dangerous waters to traverse. However, investors should not remain on the sidelines. Today, I want to discuss why an investment in top artificial intelligence stocks could be worth a fortune down the road. In late 2019, I'd discussed why Kinaxis (TSX:KXS) was perfect for investors who wanted exposure to artificial intelligence development.


Where are all the robots? โ€“ TechCrunch

#artificialintelligence

We were promised robots everywhere -- fully autonomous robots that will drive our cars end-to-end, clean our dishes, drive our freight, make our food, pipette and do our lab work, write our legal documents, mow the lawn, balance our books and even clean our houses. And yet instead of Terminator or WALL-E or HAL 9000 or R2-D2, all we got is Facebook serving us ads we don't want to click on, Netflix recommending us another movie that we probably shouldn't stay up to watch, and iRobot's Roomba. Where are all the robots? This is the question I've been trying to investigate while building my own robotics company (a currently stealth company named Chef Robotics in the food robotics space) as well as investing in many robotics/AI companies through my venture capital fund Prototype Capital. Industrial six degrees of freedom (read as six motors serially attached to each other) robot arms were actually developed around 1973 and there are hundreds of thousands of them out there -- it's just that up to this point, almost all of these robots have been in the extremely controlled environment of factory automation doing the same thing over and over again millions of times. And we've formed many multibillion dollar companies through these factory automation robots including FANUC, KUKA, ABB and Foxconn (yes they make their own robots). Go to any automotive manufacturing plant and you'll see hundreds (or in Tesla's case, thousands). They work insanely well and can pick up massive payloads -- a full car -- and have precision sometimes up to a millimeter.


MIT's Tiny New Brain Chip Aims for AI in Your Pocket

#artificialintelligence

The human brain operates on roughly 20 watts of power (a third of a 60-watt light bulb) in a space the size of, well, a human head. The biggest machine learning algorithms use closer to a nuclear power plant's worth of electricity and racks of chips to learn. That's not to slander machine learning, but nature may have a tip or two to improve the situation. By mimicking the brain, super-efficient neuromorphic chips aim to take AI off the cloud and put it in your pocket. The latest such chip is smaller than a piece of confetti and has tens of thousands of artificial synapses made out of memristors--chip components that can mimic their natural counterparts in the brain.


Why Machine Learning is the Future of Predictive & Industrial Maintenance

#artificialintelligence

There's no arguing that preventing failures and accidents is critical for industry. Unexpected incidents can grind operations to a halt for extended periods of time and necessitate expensive repairs. Just 12 hours of downtime for an oil production platform could cost six to eight million dollars in lost production opportunity alone. Because of these disruptions, industrial sectors are always on the lookout for newer, better maintenance methods, and the approach on everyone's lips right now is predictive maintenance. While everyone agrees on the name, there is less consensus on what it means or how to implement it.


Proximal Mapping for Deep Regularization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Underpinning the success of deep learning is effective regularizations that allow a variety of priors in data to be modeled. For example, robustness to adversarial perturbations, and correlations between multiple modalities. However, most regularizers are specified in terms of hidden layer outputs, which are not themselves optimization variables. In contrast to prevalent methods that optimize them indirectly through model weights, we propose inserting proximal mapping as a new layer to the deep network, which directly and explicitly produces well regularized hidden layer outputs. The resulting technique is shown well connected to kernel warping and dropout, and novel algorithms were developed for robust temporal learning and multiview modeling, both outperforming state-of-the-art methods.


Optimization of Fuzzy Controller of a Wind Power Plant Based on the Swarm Intelligence

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The article considers the problem of the optimal control of a wind power plant based on fuzzy control and automation of generating the fuzzy rule base. Fuzzy rules by experts do not always provide a maximum power output of the wind plant and fuzzy rule bases require an adjustment in the case of changing the parameters of the wind power plant or the environment. This research proposes the method for optimizing the fuzzy rules base compiled by various experts. The method is based on balancing weights of fuzzy rules into the base by the Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm. The experiment has shown that the proposed method allows forming the fuzzy rule base as an exemplary optimal base from a non-optimized set of fuzzy rules. The optimal fuzzy rule base has been taken under consideration for the concrete control loop of wind power plant and the concrete fuzzy model of the wind.


Recursive Two-Step Lookahead Expected Payoff for Time-Dependent Bayesian Optimization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a novel Bayesian method to solve the maximization of a time-dependent expensive-to-evaluate oracle. We are interested in the decision that maximizes the oracle at a finite time horizon, when relatively few noisy evaluations can be performed before the horizon. Our recursive, two-step lookahead expected payoff ($\texttt{r2LEY}$) acquisition function makes nonmyopic decisions at every stage by maximizing the estimated expected value of the oracle at the horizon. $\texttt{r2LEY}$ circumvents the evaluation of the expensive multistep (more than two steps) lookahead acquisition function by recursively optimizing a two-step lookahead acquisition function at every stage; unbiased estimators of this latter function and its gradient are utilized for efficient optimization. $\texttt{r2LEY}$ is shown to exhibit natural exploration properties far from the time horizon, enabling accurate emulation of the oracle, which is exploited in the final decision made at the horizon. To demonstrate the utility of $\texttt{r2LEY}$, we compare it with time-dependent extensions of popular myopic acquisition functions via both synthetic and real-world datasets.


Machine learning based digital twin for dynamical systems with multiple time-scales

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Digital twin technology has a huge potential for widespread applications in different industrial sectors such as infrastructure, aerospace, and automotive. However, practical adoptions of this technology have been slower, mainly due to a lack of application-specific details. Here we focus on a digital twin framework for linear single-degree-of-freedom structural dynamic systems evolving in two different operational time scales in addition to its intrinsic dynamic time-scale. Our approach strategically separates into two components -- (a) a physics-based nominal model for data processing and response predictions, and (b) a data-driven machine learning model for the time-evolution of the system parameters. The physics-based nominal model is system-specific and selected based on the problem under consideration. On the other hand, the data-driven machine learning model is generic. For tracking the multi-scale evolution of the system parameters, we propose to exploit a mixture of experts as the data-driven model. Within the mixture of experts model, Gaussian Process (GP) is used as the expert model. The primary idea is to let each expert track the evolution of the system parameters at a single time-scale. For learning the hyperparameters of the `mixture of experts using GP', an efficient framework the exploits expectation-maximization and sequential Monte Carlo sampler is used. Performance of the digital twin is illustrated on a multi-timescale dynamical system with stiffness and/or mass variations. The digital twin is found to be robust and yields reasonably accurate results. One exciting feature of the proposed digital twin is its capability to provide reasonable predictions at future time-steps. Aspects related to the data quality and data quantity are also investigated.