Predictive benchmarking, the evaluation of machine learning models based on predictive performance and competitive ranking, is a central epistemic practice in machine learning research and an increasingly prominent method for scientific inquiry. Yet, benchmark scores alone provide at best measurements of model performance relative to an evaluation dataset and a concrete learning problem. Drawing substantial scientific inferences from the results, say about theoretical tasks like image classification, requires additional assumptions about the theoretical structure of the learning problems, evaluation functions, and data distributions. We make these assumptions explicit by developing conditions of construct validity inspired by psychological measurement theory. We examine these assumptions in practice through three case studies, each exemplifying a typical intended inference: measuring engineering progress in computer vision with ImageNet; evaluating policy-relevant weather predictions with WeatherBench; and examining limitations of the predictability of life events with the Fragile Families Challenge. Our framework clarifies the conditions under which benchmark scores can support diverse scientific claims, bringing predictive benchmarking into perspective as an epistemological practice and a key site of conceptual and theoretical reasoning in machine learning.

Resourceful operation and design of robots is key for sustainable industrial automation. This will be enabled by lightweight design along with time and energy optimal control of robotic manipulators. Design and control of such systems is intertwined as the control must take into account inherent mechanical compliance while the design must accommodate the dynamic requirements demanded by the control. As basis for such design optimization, a method for estimating the lifetime of elastic link robotic manipulators is presented. This is applied to the geometry optimization of flexible serial manipulators performing pick-and-place operations, where the optimization objective is a combination of overall weight and vibration amplitudes. The lifetime estimation draws from a fatigue analysis combining the rainflow counting algorithm and the method of critical cutting plane. Tresca hypothesis is used to formulate an equivalent stress, and linear damage accumulation is assumed. The final robot geometry is selected from a Pareto front as a tradeoff of lifetime and vibration characteristic. The method is illustrated for a three degrees of freedom articulated robotic manipulator.

This work is a commentary of the article \href{https://doi.org/10.18716/ojs/phai/2025.2801}{AI Survival Stories: a Taxonomic Analysis of AI Existential Risk} by Cappelen, Goldstein, and Hawthorne. It is not just a commentary though, but a useful reminder of the philosophical limitations of \say{linear} models of risk. The article will focus on the model employed by the authors: first, I discuss some differences between standard Swiss Cheese models and this one. I then argue that in a situation of epistemic indifference the probability of P(D) is higher than what one might first suggest, given the structural relationships between layers. I then distinguish between risk and uncertainty, and argue that any estimation of P(D) is structurally affected by two kinds of uncertainty: option uncertainty and state-space uncertainty. Incorporating these dimensions of uncertainty into our qualitative discussion on AI existential risk can provide a better understanding of the likeliness of P(D).

Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT and LLaMA drive rapid progress in generative AI, yet their huge parameter scales create severe computational and environmental burdens. High training costs, energy use, and limited device deployment hinder accessibility. Existing compression - pruning, distillation, low-rank, and quantization - reduces size but ignores complex inter-layer correlations. We propose KARIPAP, a quantum-inspired tensor network compression using Infinite Projected Entangled Pair States (iPEPS) and Tensor Renormalization Group (TRG) contraction. Unlike 1D Matrix Product States, iPEPS captures multi-directional entanglement in attention and deep transformer layers. TRG ensures polynomial-time contraction, making tensorization feasible while preserving key correlation geometry. Experiments on LLaMA-2 7B show up to 93% memory and 70% parameter reduction, with 50% faster training, 25% faster inference, and only 2-3% accuracy loss. Layer-wise entanglement profiling reveals redundancy in deeper layers, confirming their suitability for tensor factorization. KARIPAP demonstrates that modern LLMs occupy low-dimensional entanglement manifolds, enabling scalable, energy-efficient, and quantum-aware AI architectures.

The energy consumption of large-scale ML models is dominated by data movement, shuffling billions of parameters across memory hierarchies and data centers. Sparsification offers a principled way to mitigate these costs by pruning redundant weights and activations, thereby reducing data movement. Effective sparsification to prune redundant parameters is still challenging: existing methods incur significant accuracy degradation, performance overhead, or both. We introduce (Bl)ock (a)nd (S)parse (T)ransformers (BLaST), a general, robust, and reliable method for sparsification, applicable to linear layers in all settings. Our method iteratively sparsifies weight matrices into a block sparsity pattern suitable for efficient sparse matrix-matrix (SpMM) multiplication. BLaST achieves up to 95% sparsity in MLP weights with negligible accuracy loss (majority <2.25%). We show a 2.2x inference speedup for Llama 3.2 with 16 GPUs, and up to 4.45x reduction in inference memory footprint resulting in a 2.9x reduction in GPU setup and operating costs.

Hypothesis ranking is vital for automated scientific discovery, especially in cost-intensive, throughput-limited natural science domains. Current methods focus on pre-experiment ranking, relying solely on language model reasoning without empirical feedback. We introduce experiment-guided ranking, which prioritizes hypotheses based on feedback from prior tests. Due to the impracticality of real experiments, we propose a simulator grounded in domain-specific concepts that models hypothesis performance as a function of similarity to a hidden ground truth, perturbed by noise. Validated against 124 hypotheses with experimentally reported outcomes, the simulator approximates real results with consistent trend alignment. Although deviations exist, they mimic wet-lab noise, promoting more robust ranking strategies. We frame experiment-guided ranking as a sequential decision-making problem and propose an in-context reinforcement learning (ICRL) framework. Our LLM-based policy decomposes hypotheses into functional elements, clusters them by mechanistic roles, and prioritizes recombinations based on feedback. Experiments show our approach significantly outperforms pre-experiment baselines and strong ablations. Our toolkit, comprising the simulator and ICRL framework, enables systematic research on experiment-guided ranking, with the policy serving as a strong proof of concept.

Accurate Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) forecasting is vital for decision-making in agriculture, energy production, and emergency management. However, it remains a challenging and underexplored problem due to the chaotic nature of the weather system. Recent data-driven studies have shown promising results, but their performance is limited by the inadequate incorporation of climate states and a model tendency to degrade, progressively losing fine-scale details and yielding over-smoothed forecasts. To overcome these limitations, we propose TianQuan-S2S, a global S2S forecasting model that integrates initial weather states with climatological means via incorporating climatology into patch embedding and enhancing variability capture through an uncertainty-augmented Transformer. Extensive experiments on the Earth Reanalysis 5 (ERA5) reanalysis dataset demonstrate that our model yields a significant improvement in both deterministic and ensemble forecasting over the climatology mean, traditional numerical methods, and data-driven models. Ablation studies empirically show the effectiveness of our model designs. Remarkably, our model outperforms skillful numerical ECMWF-S2S and advanced data-driven Fuxi-S2S in key meteorological variables.

Mobile edge devices (e.g., AR/VR headsets) typically need to complete timely inference tasks while operating with limited on-board computing and energy resources. In this paper, we investigate the problem of collaborative inference in wireless edge networks, where energy-constrained edge devices aim to complete inference tasks within given deadlines. These tasks are carried out using neural networks, and the edge device seeks to optimize inference performance under energy and delay constraints. The inference process can be split between the edge device and an edge server, thereby achieving collaborative inference over wireless networks. We formulate an inference utility optimization problem subject to energy and delay constraints, and propose a novel solution called Bayes-Split-Edge, which leverages Bayesian optimization for collaborative split inference over wireless edge networks. Our solution jointly optimizes the transmission power and the neural network split point. The Bayes-Split-Edge framework incorporates a novel hybrid acquisition function that balances inference task utility, sample efficiency, and constraint violation penalties. We evaluate our approach using the VGG19 model on the ImageNet-Mini dataset, and Resnet101 on Tiny-ImageNet, and real-world mMobile wireless channel datasets. Numerical results demonstrate that Bayes-Split-Edge achieves up to 2.4x reduction in evaluation cost compared to standard Bayesian optimization and achieves near-linear convergence. It also outperforms several baselines, including CMA-ES, DIRECT, exhaustive search, and Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), while matching exhaustive search performance under tight constraints. These results confirm that the proposed framework provides a sample-efficient solution requiring maximum 20 function evaluations and constraint-aware optimization for wireless split inference in edge computing systems.

We introduce the Schrodinger Neural Network (SNN), a principled architecture for conditional density estimation and uncertainty quantification inspired by quantum mechanics. The SNN maps each input to a normalized wave function on the output domain and computes predictive probabilities via the Born rule. The SNN departs from standard parametric likelihood heads by learning complex coefficients of a spectral expansion (e . g ., Chebyshev polynomials) whose squared modulus yields the conditional density $p(y|x)=\left| ψ_x(y)\right| {}^2$ with analytic normalization. This representation confers three practical advantages: positivity and exact normalization by construction, native multimodality through interference among basis modes without explicit mixture bookkeeping, and yields closed-form (or efficiently computable) functionals$-$such as moments and several calibration diagnostics$-$as quadratic forms in coefficient space. We develop the statistical and computational foundations of the SNN, including (i) training by exact maximum-likelihood with unit-sphere coefficient parameterization, (ii) physics-inspired quadratic regularizers (kinetic and potential energies) motivated by uncertainty relations between localization and spectral complexity, (iii) scalable low-rank and separable extensions for multivariate outputs, (iv) operator-based extensions that represent observables, constraints, and weak labels as self-adjoint matrices acting on the amplitude space, and (v) a comprehensive framework for evaluating multimodal predictions. The SNN provides a coherent, tractable framework to elevate probabilistic prediction from point estimates to physically inspired amplitude-based distributions.

With the rapid advancement of large language models (LLMs) and robotics, service robots are increasingly becoming an integral part of daily life, offering a wide range of services in complex environments. To deliver these services intelligently and efficiently, robust and accurate task planning capabilities are essential. This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the integration of LLMs into service robotics, with a particular focus on their role in enhancing robotic task planning. First, the development and foundational techniques of LLMs, including pre-training, fine-tuning, retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), and prompt engineering, are reviewed. We then explore the application of LLMs as the cognitive core-`brain'-of service robots, discussing how LLMs contribute to improved autonomy and decision-making. Furthermore, recent advancements in LLM-driven task planning across various input modalities are analyzed, including text, visual, audio, and multimodal inputs. Finally, we summarize key challenges and limitations in current research and propose future directions to advance the task planning capabilities of service robots in complex, unstructured domestic environments. This review aims to serve as a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners in the fields of artificial intelligence and robotics.