Reduced-order dynamical models play a central role in developing our understanding of predictability of climate irrespective of whether we are dealing with the actual climate system or surrogate climate-models. In this context, the Linear-Inverse-Modeling (LIM) approach, by capturing a few essential interactions between dynamical components of the full system, has proven valuable in providing insights into predictability of the full system. We demonstrate that Reservoir Computing (RC), a form of learning suitable for systems with chaotic dynamics, provides an alternative nonlinear approach that improves on the predictive skill of the LIM approach. We do this in the example setting of predicting sea-surface-temperature in the North Atlantic in the pre-industrial control simulation of a popular earth system model, the Community-Earth-System-Model so that we can compare the performance of the new RC based approach with the traditional LIM approach both when learning data is plentiful and when such data is more limited. The improved predictive skill of the RC approach over a wide range of conditions -- larger number of retained EOF coefficients, extending well into the limited data regime, etc. -- suggests that this machine-learning technique may have a use in climate predictability studies. While the possibility of developing a climate emulator -- the ability to continue the evolution of the system on the attractor long after failing to be able to track the reference trajectory -- is demonstrated in the Lorenz-63 system, it is suggested that further development of the RC approach may permit such uses of the new approach in more realistic predictability studies.

Backpropagation of error (BP) is a widely used and highly successful learning algorithm. However, its reliance on non-local information in propagating error gradients makes it seem an unlikely candidate for learning in the brain. In the last decade, a number of investigations have been carried out focused upon determining whether alternative more biologically plausible computations can be used to approximate BP. This work builds on such a local learning algorithm - Gradient Adjusted Incremental Target Propagation (GAIT-prop) - which has recently been shown to approximate BP in a manner which appears biologically plausible. This method constructs local, layer-wise weight update targets in order to enable plausible credit assignment. However, in deep networks, the local weight updates computed by GAIT-prop can deviate from BP for a number of reasons. Here, we provide and test methods to overcome such sources of error. In particular, we adaptively rescale the locally-computed errors and show that this significantly increases the performance and stability of the GAIT-prop algorithm when applied to the CIFAR-10 dataset.

This paper proposes an off-line algorithm, called Recurrent Model Predictive Control (RMPC), to solve general nonlinear finite-horizon optimal control problems. Unlike traditional Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithms, it can make full use of the current computing resources and adaptively select the longest model prediction horizon. Our algorithm employs a recurrent function to approximate the optimal policy, which maps the system states and reference values directly to the control inputs. The number of prediction steps is equal to the number of recurrent cycles of the learned policy function. With an arbitrary initial policy function, the proposed RMPC algorithm can converge to the optimal policy by directly minimizing the designed loss function. We further prove the convergence and optimality of the RMPC algorithm thorough Bellman optimality principle, and demonstrate its generality and efficiency using two numerical examples.

The monitoring of rotating machinery is an essential task in today's production processes. Currently, several machine learning and deep learning-based modules have achieved excellent results in fault detection and diagnosis. Nevertheless, to further increase user adoption and diffusion of such technologies, users and human experts must be provided with explanations and insights by the modules. Another issue is related, in most cases, with the unavailability of labeled historical data that makes the use of supervised models unfeasible. Therefore, a new approach for fault detection and diagnosis in rotating machinery is here proposed. The methodology consists of three parts: feature extraction, fault detection and fault diagnosis. In the first part, the vibration features in the time and frequency domains are extracted. Secondly, in the fault detection, the presence of fault is verified in an unsupervised manner based on anomaly detection algorithms. The modularity of the methodology allows different algorithms to be implemented. Finally, in fault diagnosis, Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP), a technique to interpret black-box models, is used. Through the feature importance ranking obtained by the model explainability, the fault diagnosis is performed. Two tools for diagnosis are proposed, namely: unsupervised classification and root cause analysis. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is shown on three datasets containing different mechanical faults in rotating machinery. The study also presents a comparison between models used in machine learning explainability: SHAP and Local Depth-based Feature Importance for the Isolation Forest (Local- DIFFI). Lastly, an analysis of several state-of-art anomaly detection algorithms in rotating machinery is included.

The distance protection relays are used to determine the impedance based fault location according to the current and voltage magnitudes in the transmission lines. However, the fault location cannot be correctly detected in mixed transmission lines due to different characteristic impedance per unit length because the characteristic impedance of high voltage cable line is significantly different from overhead line. Thus, determinations of the fault section and location with the distance protection relays are difficult in the mixed transmission lines. In this study, 154 kV overhead transmission line and underground cable line are examined as the mixed transmission line for the distance protection relays. Phase to ground faults are created in the mixed transmission line. overhead line section and underground cable section are simulated by using PSCAD-EMTDC.The short circuit fault images are generated in the distance protection relay for the overhead transmission line and underground cable transmission line faults. The images include the R-X impedance diagram of the fault, and the R-X impedance diagram have been detected by applying image processing steps. Artificial neural network (ANN) and the regression methods are used for prediction of the fault location, and the results of image processing are used as the input parameters for the training process of ANN and the regression methods. The results of ANN and regression methods are compared to select the most suitable method at the end of this study for forecasting of the fault location in transmission lines.

Climate change is the biggest challenge facing the planet. It will need every solution possible, including technology like artificial intelligence (AI). Seeing a chance to help the cause, some of the biggest names in AI and machine learning--a discipline within the field--recently published a paper called "Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning." The paper, which was discussed at a workshop during a major AI conference in June, was a "call to arms" to bring researchers together, said David Rolnick, a University of Pennsylvania postdoctoral fellow and one of the authors. "It's surprising how many problems machine learning can meaningfully contribute to," says Rolnick, who also helped organize the June workshop. The paper offers up 13 areas where machine learning can be deployed, including energy production, CO2 removal, education, solar geoengineering, and finance.

A semi-supervised learning method for spiking neural networks is proposed. The proposed method consists of supervised learning by backpropagation and subsequent unsupervised learning by spike-timing-dependent plasticity (STDP), which is a biologically plausible learning rule. Numerical experiments show that the proposed method improves the accuracy without additional labeling when a small amount of labeled data is used. This feature has not been achieved by existing semi-supervised learning methods of discriminative models. It is possible to implement the proposed learning method for event-driven systems. Hence, it would be highly efficient in real-time problems if it were implemented on neuromorphic hardware. The results suggest that STDP plays an important role other than self-organization when applied after supervised learning, which differs from the previous method of using STDP as pre-training interpreted as self-organization.

Efficient point-to-point navigation in the presence of a background flow field is important for robotic applications such as ocean surveying. In such applications, robots may only have knowledge of their immediate surroundings or be faced with time-varying currents, which limits the use of optimal control techniques for planning trajectories. Here, we apply a novel Reinforcement Learning algorithm to discover time-efficient navigation policies to steer a fixed-speed swimmer through an unsteady two-dimensional flow field. The algorithm entails inputting environmental cues into a deep neural network that determines the swimmer's actions, and deploying Remember and Forget Experience replay. We find that the resulting swimmers successfully exploit the background flow to reach the target, but that this success depends on the type of sensed environmental cue. Surprisingly, a velocity sensing approach outperformed a bio-mimetic vorticity sensing approach by nearly two-fold in success rate. Equipped with local velocity measurements, the reinforcement learning algorithm achieved near 100% success in reaching the target locations while approaching the time-efficiency of paths found by a global optimal control planner.

Network models provide an efficient way to represent many real life problems mathematically. In the last few decades, the field of network optimization has witnessed an upsurge of interest among researchers and practitioners. The network models considered in this thesis are broadly classified into four types including transportation problem, shortest path problem, minimum spanning tree problem and maximum flow problem. Quite often, we come across situations, when the decision parameters of network optimization problems are not precise and characterized by various forms of uncertainties arising from the factors, like insufficient or incomplete data, lack of evidence, inappropriate judgements and randomness. Considering the deterministic environment, there exist several studies on network optimization problems. However, in the literature, not many investigations on single and multi objective network optimization problems are observed under diverse uncertain frameworks. This thesis proposes seven different network models under different uncertain paradigms. Here, the uncertain programming techniques used to formulate the uncertain network models are (i) expected value model, (ii) chance constrained model and (iii) dependent chance constrained model. Subsequently, the corresponding crisp equivalents of the uncertain network models are solved using different solution methodologies. The solution methodologies used in this thesis can be broadly categorized as classical methods and evolutionary algorithms. The classical methods, used in this thesis, are Dijkstra and Kruskal algorithms, modified rough Dijkstra algorithm, global criterion method, epsilon constraint method and fuzzy programming method. Whereas, among the evolutionary algorithms, we have proposed the varying population genetic algorithm with indeterminate crossover and considered two multi objective evolutionary algorithms.

We consider the problem of parameter estimation in slowly varying regression models with sparsity constraints. We formulate the problem as a mixed integer optimization problem and demonstrate that it can be reformulated exactly as a binary convex optimization problem through a novel exact relaxation. The relaxation utilizes a new equality on Moore-Penrose inverses that convexifies the non-convex objective function while coinciding with the original objective on all feasible binary points. This allows us to solve the problem significantly more efficiently and to provable optimality using a cutting plane-type algorithm. We develop a highly optimized implementation of such algorithm, which substantially improves upon the asymptotic computational complexity of a straightforward implementation. We further develop a heuristic method that is guaranteed to produce a feasible solution and, as we empirically illustrate, generates high quality warm-start solutions for the binary optimization problem. We show, on both synthetic and real-world datasets, that the resulting algorithm outperforms competing formulations in comparable times across a variety of metrics including out-of-sample predictive performance, support recovery accuracy, and false positive rate. The algorithm enables us to train models with 10,000s of parameters, is robust to noise, and able to effectively capture the underlying slowly changing support of the data generating process.