The recent developments in the machine learning domain have enabled the development of complex multivariate probabilistic forecasting models. Therefore, it is pivotal to have a precise evaluation method to gauge the performance and predictability power of these complex methods. To do so, several evaluation metrics have been proposed in the past (such as Energy Score, Dawid-Sebastiani score, variogram score), however, they cannot reliably measure the performance of a probabilistic forecaster. Recently, CRPS-sum has gained a lot of prominence as a reliable metric for multivariate probabilistic forecasting. This paper presents a systematic evaluation of CRPS-sum to understand its discrimination ability. We show that the statistical properties of target data affect the discrimination ability of CRPS-Sum. Furthermore, we highlight that CRPS-Sum calculation overlooks the performance of the model on each dimension. These flaws can lead us to an incorrect assessment of model performance. Finally, with experiments on the real-world dataset, we demonstrate that the shortcomings of CRPS-Sum provide a misleading indication of the probabilistic forecasting performance method. We show that it is easily possible to have a better CRPS-Sum for a dummy model, which looks like random noise, in comparison to the state-of-the-art method.

With the help of special neuromorphic hardware, spiking neural networks (SNNs) are expected to realize artificial intelligence with less energy consumption. It provides a promising energy-efficient way for realistic control tasks by combing SNNs and deep reinforcement learning (RL). There are only a few existing SNN-based RL methods at present. Most of them either lack generalization ability or employ Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to estimate value function in training. The former needs to tune numerous hyper-parameters for each scenario, and the latter limits the application of different types of RL algorithm and ignores the large energy consumption in training. To develop a robust spike-based RL method, we draw inspiration from non-spiking interneurons found in insects and propose the deep spiking Q-network (DSQN), using the membrane voltage of non-spiking neurons as the representation of Q-value, which can directly learn robust policies from high-dimensional sensory inputs using end-to-end RL. Experiments conducted on 17 Atari games demonstrate the effectiveness of DSQN by outperforming the ANN-based deep Q-network (DQN) in most games. Moreover, the experimental results show superior learning stability and robustness to adversarial attacks of DSQN.

Value-function (VF) approximation is a central problem in Reinforcement Learning (RL). Classical non-parametric VF estimation suffers from the curse of dimensionality. As a result, parsimonious parametric models have been adopted to approximate VFs in high-dimensional spaces, with most efforts being focused on linear and neural-network-based approaches. Differently, this paper puts forth a a parsimonious non-parametric approach, where we use stochastic low-rank algorithms to estimate the VF matrix in an online and model-free fashion. Furthermore, as VFs tend to be multi-dimensional, we propose replacing the classical VF matrix representation with a tensor (multi-way array) representation and, then, use the PARAFAC decomposition to design an online model-free tensor low-rank algorithm. Different versions of the algorithms are proposed, their complexity is analyzed, and their performance is assessed numerically using standardized RL environments.

Prescribing optimal operation based on the condition of the system and, thereby, potentially prolonging the remaining useful lifetime has a large potential for actively managing the availability, maintenance and costs of complex systems. Reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms are particularly suitable for this type of problems given their learning capabilities. A special case of a prescriptive operation is the power allocation task, which can be considered as a sequential allocation problem, where the action space is bounded by a simplex constraint. A general continuous action-space solution of such sequential allocation problems has still remained an open research question for RL algorithms. In continuous action-space, the standard Gaussian policy applied in reinforcement learning does not support simplex constraints, while the Gaussian-softmax policy introduces a bias during training. In this work, we propose the Dirichlet policy for continuous allocation tasks and analyze the bias and variance of its policy gradients. We demonstrate that the Dirichlet policy is bias-free and provides significantly faster convergence, better performance and better hyperparameters robustness over the Gaussian-softmax policy. Moreover, we demonstrate the applicability of the proposed algorithm on a prescriptive operation case, where we propose the Dirichlet power allocation policy and evaluate the performance on a case study of a set of multiple lithium-ion (Li-I) battery systems. The experimental results show the potential to prescribe optimal operation, improve the efficiency and sustainability of multi-power source systems.

Recent artificial intelligence-based methods have shown great promise in the use of neural networks for real-time sensing and detection of transmission line faults and estimation of their locations. The expansion of power systems including transmission lines with various lengths have made a fault detection, classification, and location estimation process more challenging. Transmission line datasets are stream data which are continuously collected by various sensors and hence, require generalized and fast fault diagnosis approaches. Newly collected datasets including voltages and currents might not have enough and accurate labels (fault and no fault) that are useful to train neural networks. In this paper, a novel transfer learning framework based on a pre-trained LeNet-5 convolutional neural network is proposed. This method is able to diagnose faults for different transmission line lengths and impedances by transferring the knowledge from a source convolutional neural network to predict a dissimilar target dataset. By transferring this knowledge, faults from various transmission lines, without having enough labels, can be diagnosed faster and more efficiently compared to the existing methods. To prove the feasibility and effectiveness of this methodology, seven different datasets that include various lengths of transmission lines are used. The robustness of the proposed methodology against generator voltage fluctuation, variation in fault distance, fault inception angle, fault resistance, and phase difference between the two generators are well shown, thus proving its practical values in the fault diagnosis of transmission lines.

With the continuous increase of installed capacity of wind power, the influence of large-scale wind power integration on the power grid is becoming increasingly apparent. Ultra-short-term wind power prediction is conducive to the dispatching management of the power grid, and improves the operating efficiency and economy of the power system. In order to overcome the intermittency and uncertainty of wind power generation, this paper proposes the DE-BP (Dfferential Evolution-Back Propagation) algorithm to predict wind power, and addresses such shortcomings of BP neural network as its falling into local optimality and slow training speed when predicting. In this paper, the differential evolution algorithm is used to find the optimal value of the initial weight and threshold of the BP neural network, and the DE-BP neural network prediction model is obtained. According to the data of a wind farm in Northwest China, the short-term wind power is predicted. Compared with the application of the BP model in wind power prediction, the results show that the accuracy of the DE-BP algorithm is improved by about 5%; Compared with the GA-BP(Genetic Algorithm-Back Propagation) model, the prediction time is shortened by 23.1%.

Researchers at ETH Zurich and the Frankfurt School have developed an artificial neural network that can solve challenging control problems. The self-learning system can be used for the optimization of supply chains and production processes as well as for smart grids or traffic control systems. Power cuts, financial network failures and supply chain disruptions are just some of the many of problems typically encountered in complex systems that are very difficult or even impossible to control using existing methods. Control systems based on artificial intelligence (AI) can help to optimize complex processes--and can also be used to develop new business models. Together with Professor Lucas Böttcher from the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, ETH researchers Nino Antulov-Fantulin and Thomas Asikis--both from the Chair of Computational Social Science--have developed a versatile AI-based control system called AI Pontryagin which is designed to steer complex systems and networks towards desired target states.

Topic taxonomies, which represent the latent topic (or category) structure of document collections, provide valuable knowledge of contents in many applications such as web search and information filtering. Recently, several unsupervised methods have been developed to automatically construct the topic taxonomy from a text corpus, but it is challenging to generate the desired taxonomy without any prior knowledge. In this paper, we study how to leverage the partial (or incomplete) information about the topic structure as guidance to find out the complete topic taxonomy. We propose a novel framework for topic taxonomy completion, named TaxoCom, which recursively expands the topic taxonomy by discovering novel sub-topic clusters of terms and documents. To effectively identify novel topics within a hierarchical topic structure, TaxoCom devises its embedding and clustering techniques to be closely-linked with each other: (i) locally discriminative embedding optimizes the text embedding space to be discriminative among known (i.e., given) sub-topics, and (ii) novelty adaptive clustering assigns terms into either one of the known sub-topics or novel sub-topics. Our comprehensive experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate that TaxoCom not only generates the high-quality topic taxonomy in terms of term coherency and topic coverage but also outperforms all other baselines for a downstream task.

The inner operations of the human brain as a biological processing system remain largely a mystery. Inspired by the function of the human brain and based on the analysis of simple neural network systems in other species, such as Drosophila, neuromorphic computing systems have attracted considerable interest. In cellular-level connectomics research, we can identify the characteristics of biological neural network, called population, which constitute not only recurrent fullyconnection in network, also an external-stimulus and selfconnection in each neuron. Relying on low data bandwidth of spike transmission in network and input data, Spiking Neural Networks exhibit low-latency and low-power design. In this study, we proposed a configurable population-based digital spiking neuromorphic processor in 180nm process technology with two configurable hierarchy populations. Also, these neurons in the processor can be configured as novel models, integer quadratic integrate-and-fire neuron models, which contain an unsigned 8-bit membrane potential value. The processor can implement intelligent decision making for avoidance in real-time. Moreover, the proposed approach enables the developments of biomimetic neuromorphic system and various low-power, and low-latency inference processing applications.