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Hierarchical Clustering and Matrix Completion for the Reconstruction of World Input-Output Tables

arXiv.org Machine Learning

World Input-Output (I/O) matrices provide the networks of within- and cross-country economic relations. In the context of I/O analysis, the methodology adopted by national statistical offices in data collection raises the issue of obtaining reliable data in a timely fashion and it makes the reconstruction of (part of) the I/O matrices of particular interest. In this work, we propose a method combining hierarchical clustering and Matrix Completion (MC) with a LASSO-like nuclear norm penalty, to impute missing entries of a partially unknown I/O matrix. Through simulations based on synthetic matrices we study the effectiveness of the proposed method to predict missing values from both previous years data and current data related to countries similar to the one for which current data are obscured. To show the usefulness of our method, an application based on World Input-Output Database (WIOD) tables - which are an example of industry-by-industry I/O tables - is provided. Strong similarities in structure between WIOD and other I/O tables are also found, which make the proposed approach easily generalizable to them.


'Your World' on Russian missile strike near Poland-Ukraine border

FOX News

Former US Ambassador to the OSCE discusses Russia's efforts to draw China into war with Ukraine on'Your World.' This is a rush transcript from "Your World," March 14, 2022. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated. NEIL CAVUTO, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: All right, thank you, Martha. We are on top of the same developments you have been following right now, a little too close for comfort. That's the big story, as Russian airstrikes get very, very close to the Polish border. Try a little more than six miles, all of this as we're getting a dispute from the Russians, that they have never called on China for military or economic help. But there are some signs that is not quite the case, and the message we have for China, if it entertains doing just that, and all of this as President Zelenskyy is prepared to address Congress, albeit virtually, on Wednesday. We have got you covered, including a big, big drop in oil today. But that did not allay concerns that inflation is still a big problem. We will get into that in just a second. We are learning today more about the Russian advance on this city, both from the air and from the ground. We have heard the air raid sirens going off today in the Ukrainian capital, and that shelling getting closer and closer. You can see in this video this morning one of those Russian shells hit an apartment building, killing at least two people and injuring nearly a dozen others, the destruction quite widespread as firefighters rushed into the building trying to look for survivors. And a public bus was nearby. Thankfully, it was empty at the time, but it really shows you what the Russians are doing to Ukrainian towns and cities across this country. In the southern city of Mariupol, this drone video showing the pure devastation that Russian forces are inflicting on the civilian population there, indiscriminate firing on civilian areas and this Black smoke rising up across the horizon.


Learning Deep Implicit Fourier Neural Operators (IFNOs) with Applications to Heterogeneous Material Modeling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Constitutive modeling based on continuum mechanics theory has been a classical approach for modeling the mechanical responses of materials. However, when constitutive laws are unknown or when defects and/or high degrees of heterogeneity are present, these classical models may become inaccurate. In this work, we propose to use data-driven modeling, which directly utilizes high-fidelity simulation and/or experimental measurements to predict a material's response without using conventional constitutive models. Specifically, the material response is modeled by learning the implicit mappings between loading conditions and the resultant displacement and/or damage fields, with the neural network serving as a surrogate for a solution operator. To model the complex responses due to material heterogeneity and defects, we develop a novel deep neural operator architecture, which we coin as the Implicit Fourier Neural Operator (IFNO). In the IFNO, the increment between layers is modeled as an integral operator to capture the long-range dependencies in the feature space. As the network gets deeper, the limit of IFNO becomes a fixed point equation that yields an implicit neural operator and naturally mimics the displacement/damage fields solving procedure in material modeling problems. We demonstrate the performance of our proposed method for a number of examples, including hyperelastic, anisotropic and brittle materials. As an application, we further employ the proposed approach to learn the material models directly from digital image correlation (DIC) tracking measurements, and show that the learned solution operators substantially outperform the conventional constitutive models in predicting displacement fields.


Physics-Informed Neural Networks with Adaptive Localized Artificial Viscosity

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Physics-informed Neural Network (PINN) is a promising tool that has been applied in a variety of physical phenomena described by partial differential equations (PDE). However, it has been observed that PINNs are difficult to train in certain "stiff" problems, which include various nonlinear hyperbolic PDEs that display shocks in their solutions. Recent studies added a diffusion term to the PDE, and an artificial viscosity (AV) value was manually tuned to allow PINNs to solve these problems. In this paper, we propose three approaches to address this problem, none of which rely on an a priori definition of the artificial viscosity value. The first method learns a global AV value, whereas the other two learn localized AV values around the shocks, by means of a parametrized AV map or a residual-based AV map. We applied the proposed methods to the inviscid Burgers equation and the Buckley-Leverett equation, the latter being a classical problem in Petroleum Engineering. The results show that the proposed methods are able to learn both a small AV value and the accurate shock location and improve the approximation error over a nonadaptive global AV alternative method.


DEPTS: Deep Expansion Learning for Periodic Time Series Forecasting

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Periodic time series (PTS) forecasting plays a crucial role in a variety of industries to foster critical tasks, such as early warning, pre-planning, resource scheduling, etc. However, the complicated dependencies of the PTS signal on its inherent periodicity as well as the sophisticated composition of various periods hinder the performance of PTS forecasting. In this paper, we introduce a deep expansion learning framework, DEPTS, for PTS forecasting. DEPTS starts with a decoupled formulation by introducing the periodic state as a hidden variable, which stimulates us to make two dedicated modules to tackle the aforementioned two challenges. First, we develop an expansion module on top of residual learning to perform a layer-by-layer expansion of those complicated dependencies. Second, we introduce a periodicity module with a parameterized periodic function that holds sufficient capacity to capture diversified periods. Moreover, our two customized modules also have certain interpretable capabilities, such as attributing the forecasts to either local momenta or global periodicity and characterizing certain core periodic properties, e.g., amplitudes and frequencies. Extensive experiments on both synthetic data and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of DEPTS on handling PTS. In most cases, DEPTS achieves significant improvements over the best baseline. Specifically, the error reduction can even reach up to 20% for a few cases. Finally, all codes are publicly available.


turning-the-tide-with-ai-and-hpc

#artificialintelligence

With the country's unique position within the Ring of Fire, such natural hazards have become part and parcel of everyday life in Japan. Accordingly, the nation is considered a model for disaster preparedness: each resident is advised to carry fireproof evacuation bags with first aid, sanitation products as well as food and water. Meanwhile, buildings constructed after 1981 are required to have earthquake-resistant structures, meaning thicker beams, pillars and walls as well as shock-absorbers to reduce shaking in taller buildings. And yet, the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake came as a huge shock--literally. On March 11, 2011, the Tohoku region along Japan's eastern coast was rocked by a magnitude 9.0 earthquake for six minutes; the strongest in the country's records so far.


GE's Pipe-worm robot clears, maps pipeline networks

#artificialintelligence

The robot uses artificial intelligence (AI) and the sensory data it gathers from its whiskers to automatically detect turns, elbows, junctions, …


A Machine Learning Approach for Prosumer Management in Intraday Electricity Markets

#artificialintelligence

Prosumer operators are dealing with extensive challenges to participate in short-term electricity markets while taking uncertainties into account. Challenges such as variation in demand, solar energy, wind power, and electricity prices as well as faster response time in intraday electricity markets. Machine learning approaches could resolve these challenges due to their ability to continuous learning of complex relations and providing a real-time response. Such approaches are applicable with presence of the high performance computing and big data. To tackle these challenges, a Markov decision process is proposed and solved with a reinforcement learning algorithm with proper observations and actions employing tabular Q-learning. Trained agent converges to a policy which is similar to the global optimal solution. It increases the prosumer's profit by 13.39% compared to the well-known stochastic optimization approach.


Representing Mixtures of Word Embeddings with Mixtures of Topic Embeddings

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A topic model is often formulated as a generative model that explains how each word of a document is generated given a set of topics and document-specific topic proportions. It is focused on capturing the word co-occurrences in a document and hence often suffers from poor performance in analyzing short documents. In addition, its parameter estimation often relies on approximate posterior inference that is either not scalable or suffers from large approximation error. This paper introduces a new topic-modeling framework where each document is viewed as a set of word embedding vectors and each topic is modeled as an embedding vector in the same embedding space. Embedding the words and topics in the same vector space, we define a method to measure the semantic difference between the embedding vectors of the words of a document and these of the topics, and optimize the topic embeddings to minimize the expected difference over all documents. Experiments on text analysis demonstrate that the proposed method, which is amenable to mini-batch stochastic gradient descent based optimization and hence scalable to big corpora, provides competitive performance in discovering more coherent and diverse topics and extracting better document representations.


Magnetic Field Prediction Using Generative Adversarial Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Plenty of scientific and real-world applications are built on magnetic fields and their characteristics. To retrieve the valuable magnetic field information in high resolution, extensive field measurements are required, which are either time-consuming to conduct or even not feasible due to physical constraints. To alleviate this problem, we predict magnetic field values at a random point in space from a few point measurements by using a generative adversarial network (GAN) structure. The deep learning (DL) architecture consists of two neural networks: a generator, which predicts missing field values of a given magnetic field, and a critic, which is trained to calculate the statistical distance between real and generated magnetic field distributions. By minimizing this statistical distance, a reconstruction loss as well as physical losses, our trained generator has learned to predict the missing field values with a median reconstruction test error of 5.14%, when a single coherent region of field points is missing, and 5.86%, when only a few point measurements in space are available and the field measurements around are predicted. We verify the results on an experimentally validated field.