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Model Selection, Adaptation, and Combination for Transfer Learning in Wind and Photovoltaic Power Forecasts

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

There is recent interest in using model hubs, a collection of pre-trained models, in computer vision tasks. To utilize the model hub, we first select a source model and then adapt the model for the target to compensate for differences. While there is yet limited research on model selection and adaption for computer vision tasks, this holds even more for the field of renewable power. At the same time, it is a crucial challenge to provide forecasts for the increasing demand for power forecasts based on weather features from a numerical weather prediction. We close these gaps by conducting the first thorough experiment for model selection and adaptation for transfer learning in renewable power forecast, adopting recent results from the field of computer vision on 667 wind and photovoltaic parks. To the best of our knowledge, this makes it the most extensive study for transfer learning in renewable power forecasts reducing the computational effort and improving the forecast error. Therefore, we adopt source models based on target data from different seasons and limit the amount of training data. As an extension of the current state of the art, we utilize a Bayesian linear regression for forecasting the response based on features extracted from a neural network. This approach outperforms the baseline with only seven days of training data. We further show how combining multiple models through ensembles can significantly improve the model selection and adaptation approach.


Alums From Google's DeepMind Want to Bring AI Energy Controls to Industrial Giants

#artificialintelligence

Industrial production is one of the dirtiest corners of the corporate world. A startup from former Google engineers thinks it can clean it up with artificial intelligence. Phaidra, a company based in Seattle, sells AI software to automate building controls for power plants and other industrial giants. For several years, DeepMind has let its AI system manage the temperature controls inside Google data centers, ultimately shaving huge chunks off the company's electricity bill. Phaidra's algorithms are designed to select the most efficient temperature for unique facilities, such as a steel mill or a vaccine manufacturer, and identify when equipment starts to lag in performance.


Autonomous Navigation of AGVs in Unknown Cluttered Environments: log-MPPI Control Strategy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Sampling-based model predictive control (MPC) optimization methods, such as Model Predictive Path Integral (MPPI), have recently shown promising results in various robotic tasks. However, it might produce an infeasible trajectory when the distributions of all sampled trajectories are concentrated within high-cost even infeasible regions. In this study, we propose a new method called log-MPPI equipped with a more effective trajectory sampling distribution policy which significantly improves the trajectory feasibility in terms of satisfying system constraints. The key point is to draw the trajectory samples from the normal log-normal (NLN) mixture distribution, rather than from Gaussian distribution. Furthermore, this work presents a method for collision-free navigation in unknown cluttered environments by incorporating the 2D occupancy grid map into the optimization problem of the sampling-based MPC algorithm. We first validate the efficiency and robustness of our proposed control strategy through extensive simulations of 2D autonomous navigation in different types of cluttered environments as well as the cartpole swing-up task. We further demonstrate, through real-world experiments, the applicability of log-MPPI for performing a 2D grid-based collision-free navigation in an unknown cluttered environment, showing its superiority to be utilized with the local costmap without adding additional complexity to the optimization problem. A video demonstrating the real-world and simulation results is available at https://youtu.be/_uGWQEFJSN0.


Neural Operator with Regularity Structure for Modeling Dynamics Driven by SPDEs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) are powerful mathematical models for modeling dynamics in many areas including atmospheric sciences and physics. Neural Operators are deep learning based approach which are proposed for solving parametric PDEs. As the theory of regularity structure has achieved great successes in analyzing SPDEs and provides the concept model feature vectors that wellapproximate SPDEs' solutions, we propose the Neural Operator with Regularity Structure (NORS) which incorporates the feature vectors for modeling dynamics driven by SPDEs. Stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs), which generalizes PDE via random force terms and coefficients, are significant tools for modeling dynamics in many areas including atmospheric sciences (Hasselmann, 1976), physics (Uhlenbeck & Ornstein, 1930), biology (Wilkinson, 2018), economics (Barone-Adesi & Whaley, 1987), etc. SPDEs are used to study statistical mechanics of the dynamics systems, e.g., stochastic Navier-Stokes equations models the statistics of turbulent flows (Buckmaster & Vicol, 2019) in atmospheric science and the ฮฆ Since SPDEs relate to many scientific open problems, studying the solution of SPDEs from both mathematical proving and numerical methods is a hot research direction in both math and physics. Inspired by recent advances in using AI techniques to accelerate scientific computing, we study using deep learning methods for modeling the solution of SPDEs.


Physics-Informed Deep Neural Operator Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Standard neural networks can approximate general nonlinear operators, represented either explicitly by a combination of mathematical operators, e.g., in an advection-diffusion-reaction partial differential equation, or simply as a black box, e.g., a system-of-systems. The first neural operator was the Deep Operator Network (DeepONet), proposed in 2019 based on rigorous approximation theory. Since then, a few other less general operators have been published, e.g., based on graph neural networks or Fourier transforms. For black box systems, training of neural operators is data-driven only but if the governing equations are known they can be incorporated into the loss function during training to develop physics-informed neural operators. Neural operators can be used as surrogates in design problems, uncertainty quantification, autonomous systems, and almost in any application requiring real-time inference. Moreover, independently pre-trained DeepONets can be used as components of a complex multi-physics system by coupling them together with relatively light training. Here, we present a review of DeepONet, the Fourier neural operator, and the graph neural operator, as well as appropriate extensions with feature expansions, and highlight their usefulness in diverse applications in computational mechanics, including porous media, fluid mechanics, and solid mechanics.


Discover Life Skills for Planning with Bandits via Observing and Learning How the World Works

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a novel approach for planning agents to compose abstract skills via observing and learning from historical interactions with the world. Our framework operates in a Markov state-space model via a set of actions under unknown pre-conditions. We formulate skills as high-level abstract policies that propose action plans based on the current state. Each policy learns new plans by observing the states' transitions while the agent interacts with the world. Such an approach automatically learns new plans to achieve specific intended effects, but the success of such plans is often dependent on the states in which they are applicable. Therefore, we formulate the evaluation of such plans as infinitely many multi-armed bandit problems, where we balance the allocation of resources on evaluating the success probability of existing arms and exploring new options. The result is a planner capable of automatically learning robust high-level skills under a noisy environment; such skills implicitly learn the action pre-condition without explicit knowledge. We show that this planning approach is experimentally very competitive in high-dimensional state space domains.


Gradients should stay on Path: Better Estimators of the Reverse- and Forward KL Divergence for Normalizing Flows

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose an algorithm to estimate the path-gradient of both the reverse and forward Kullback-Leibler divergence for an arbitrary manifestly invertible normalizing flow. The resulting path-gradient estimators are straightforward to implement, have lower variance, and lead not only to faster convergence of training but also to better overall approximation results compared to standard total gradient estimators. We also demonstrate that path-gradient training is less susceptible to mode-collapse. In light of our results, we expect that path-gradient estimators will become the new standard method to train normalizing flows for variational inference.


Robust Action Governor for Uncertain Piecewise Affine Systems with Non-convex Constraints and Safe Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The action governor is an add-on scheme to a nominal control loop that monitors and adjusts the control actions to enforce safety specifications expressed as pointwise-in-time state and control constraints. In this paper, we introduce the Robust Action Governor (RAG) for systems the dynamics of which can be represented using discrete-time Piecewise Affine (PWA) models with both parametric and additive uncertainties and subject to non-convex constraints. We develop the theoretical properties and computational approaches for the RAG. After that, we introduce the use of the RAG for realizing safe Reinforcement Learning (RL), i.e., ensuring all-time constraint satisfaction during online RL exploration-and-exploitation process. This development enables safe real-time evolution of the control policy and adaptation to changes in the operating environment and system parameters (due to aging, damage, etc.). We illustrate the effectiveness of the RAG in constraint enforcement and safe RL using the RAG by considering their applications to a soft-landing problem of a mass-spring-damper system.


Molecular-orbital-based Machine Learning for Open-shell and Multi-reference Systems with Kernel Addition Gaussian Process Regression

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce a novel machine learning strategy, kernel addition Gaussian process regression (KA-GPR), in molecular-orbital-based machine learning (MOB-ML) to learn the total correlation energies of general electronic structure theories for closed- and open-shell systems by introducing a machine learning strategy. The learning efficiency of MOB-ML (KA-GPR) is the same as the original MOB-ML method for the smallest criegee molecule, which is a closed-shell molecule with multi-reference characters. In addition, the prediction accuracies of different small free radicals could reach the chemical accuracy of 1 kcal/mol by training on one example structure. Accurate potential energy surfaces for the H10 chain (closed-shell) and water OH bond dissociation (open-shell) could also be generated by MOB-ML (KA-GPR). To explore the breadth of chemical systems that KA-GPR can describe, we further apply MOB-ML to accurately predict the large benchmark datasets for closed- (QM9, QM7b-T, GDB-13-T) and open-shell (QMSpin) molecules.


DiffCloth: Differentiable Cloth Simulation with Dry Frictional Contact

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Cloth simulation has wide applications in computer animation, garment design, and robot-assisted dressing. This work presents a differentiable cloth simulator whose additional gradient information facilitates cloth-related applications. Our differentiable simulator extends a state-of-the-art cloth simulator based on Projective Dynamics (PD) and with dry frictional contact. We draw inspiration from previous work to propose a fast and novel method for deriving gradients in PD-based cloth simulation with dry frictional contact. Furthermore, we conduct a comprehensive analysis and evaluation of the usefulness of gradients in contact-rich cloth simulation. Finally, we demonstrate the efficacy of our simulator in a number of downstream applications, including system identification, trajectory optimization for assisted dressing, closed-loop control, inverse design, and real-to-sim transfer. We observe a substantial speedup obtained from using our gradient information in solving most of these applications.