The use of residential photovoltaics has increased dramatically in recent years. With battery systems becoming more affordable, the optimal operation of a photovoltaic-battery system can bring significant savings to households. Optimal control requires correct forecasts of underlying parameters, such as photovoltaic power generation, to schedule the battery. While forecasting models have become increasingly accurate due to algorithmic advances and data availability, accuracy is typically measured in generic metrics which might not align with the downstream application. This study proposes a decision-focused learning framework that integrates optimization and prediction by training a Long Short-Term Memory photovoltaic energy forecaster on the downstream optimal scheduling of a battery system. The proposed methodology is compared against a standard two-phase approach. Across a 14-month evaluation period, the decision-focused method reduced average electricity costs across twenty buildings by 3.6% when normalized against performance bounds defined by a perfect forecast and a baseline of no optimization. Critically, this financial improvement was achieved despite the model exhibiting a root mean squared error of 19.9%, significantly higher than the decoupled model's 8.2%. Warm-starting the decision-focused model further improves results, lowering average cost by approximately 8%, while also mitigating the negative impact on statistical accuracy (root mean squared error of 13.7%). The findings are statistically significant at the 0.001 level across the twenty households and for each household individually. These results demonstrate that aligning forecast models with optimization goals is key for achieving cost advantages in PV-battery systems. Future research should replicate these findings on other datasets, alternate forecasting models and alternate optimization algorithms.

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VILNIUS/STOCKHOLM/LONDON - Ukrainian drones have strayed into Baltic countries' airspace in recent weeks, sowing confusion and raising tensions with Russia at a time when U.S. commitment to NATO's collective security is in question. The airspace incursions have occurred as Ukraine, seeking to land heavier blows on Russia four years after Moscow's full-scale invasion, uses exploding drones to hit Russian Baltic ports that handle nearly 40% of national oil and gas exports. In most cases, Kyiv and the Baltic states have confirmed the stray drones are Ukrainian but have blamed Russia for causing them to deviate from their flight path with the use of electronic defenses that jam or spoof signals. In a time of both misinformation and too much information, quality journalism is more crucial than ever. By subscribing, you can help us get the story right.

A representation that scrambles the true degrees of freedom of the world cannot support reliable planning or compositional generalization. We prove that LeJEPA (alignment plus Gaussian regularization) linearly recovers the world's latent variables from nonlinear observations, a property known as linear identifiability, in a broad class of worlds where latents evolve under stationary, additive-noise transitions. Our main result is that among all such worlds, the Gaussian is the unique latent distribution for which this guarantee holds. The forward direction rests on a spectral decomposition in which each degree of nonlinearity is strictly penalized by alignment, making the linear map the optimum; the converse rules out every non-Gaussian alternative. We further prove an approximate identifiability result where the guarantee degrades gracefully, and show that linear, orthogonal identifiability enables optimal latent-space planning. We validate the theory with experiments ranging from 2D examples to 1024-dimensional latents, including distributional ablations and pixel-based robotic control. Our theory turns an empirically successful recipe into a mathematical guarantee, providing the foundation for building World Models that provably recover the structure of the world.

We study the sample complexity of policy gradient for log-growth control -- the problem of learning, from observed state transitions, a feedback gain that optimally stabilizes a scalar linear system driven through a multiplicative-noise actuation channel. The objective $J(K) = \mathbb{E}[\log|1+BK|]$ is the top Lyapunov exponent of the closed loop. This problem carries a structural difficulty we call the cusp obstruction: the optimal gain $K^*$ always places the noise singularity $b_{\rm sing}(K) = -1/K$ in the interior of the support. At this singular optimum the policy gradient exists only as a Cauchy principal value, not as a Lebesgue integral, and the natural single-sample gradient estimator has infinite variance. Standard first-order stochastic-optimization analysis is thus inapplicable at the optimum, and merely smoothing the objective does not resolve the difficulty. The obstruction, however, has an exploitable symmetry: the Cauchy kernel is an odd function of the displacement from the moving pole, so pairing each observation with its reflection through the pole cancels the divergent part. This one cancellation simultaneously controls the population curvature, the gradient-estimator variance, and the bias incurred when the noise density is estimated. Combining these bounds with a closed-form single-transition gradient oracle, we prove that projected mini-batch policy gradient, initialized in any compact subset of the stabilizing region, attains total sample complexity $\tilde{O}(1/η)$ when the noise density is known and $\tilde{O}(η^{-(2s+1)/(2s)})$ when it must be estimated, for $C^s$ noise densities with $s \geq 2$.

Transition-related financial markets are increasingly exposed to abrupt repricing episodes, elevated volatility, and heterogeneous macro-financial shocks. Under such conditions, conventional Gaussian-linear forecasting frameworks may provide an incomplete representation of the dependence structure linking fossil-energy, renewable-energy, technology, and utility-sector assets. This paper investigates whether transition-related financial returns exhibit residual non-linear predictability after controlling for heavy-tailed multivariate linear dynamics. To address this question, we develop a hybrid forecasting framework combining Student-t Vector Autoregressions with nonlinear recurrent residual learning architectures. The empirical analysis considers six major exchange-traded funds representing broad equity markets and key transition-sensitive sectors. The results reveal substantial departures from Gaussian-linear behavior, including excess kurtosis, volatility clustering, and remaining nonlinear dependence after econometric filtering. Out-of-sample forecasting experiments show that the proposed framework consistently improves predictive accuracy relative to conventional VAR models, standalone machine-learning methods, and alternative hybrid specifications. The forecasting gains become more pronounced during periods of macro-financial stress, particularly during the COVID-19 crisis and the Ukraine-related energy shock. Overall, the findings suggest that transition-related financial systems exhibit regime-sensitive and heavy-tailed predictive dynamics that are insufficiently captured by standard Gaussian-linear models alone.

Input-convex neural networks (ICNNs) are widely used for log-concave density estimation, convex-potential normalizing flows, optimal transport, and transport-map inversion for high-dimensional Bayesian posteriors. These tasks share a structural constraint: the inter-layer weights of the ICNN must remain non-negative. The standard recipe, projected gradient descent (PGD) onto the non-negative cone, applies a hard, non-smooth projection -- the stiff-penalty limit of an ADMM-style constraint splitting -- and its classical convergence guarantees do not transfer to the non-smooth ICNN training landscape; the differentiable alternative, softplus reparametrization, attenuates the gradient exponentially in the weight magnitude, stalling training with dead inter-layer weights and plateaued loss. Inspired by parameter-extension lifts of PDE-constrained inverse problems, we propose the lift: instead of constraining the inter-layer weights directly, we train an unconstrained hypernetwork that emits them from a permutation-invariant summary of the input batch. This adds stochasticity to the training dynamics that softens the loss landscape, letting the iterates escape the gradient-attenuated region where direct softplus stalls. We trace this softening to three structural ingredients -- a learnable bias acting as slack, a hypernetwork body that conditions on the target batch, and a cross-covariance coupling the two through batch stochasticity -- and prove each one necessary: deleting any single ingredient collapses the cross-covariance that carries the softening. On log-concave energy-based modeling from one-dimensional toy targets to image-flavored latents, and convex-potential normalizing flows on a 21-dimensional tabular benchmark, we show that the lift reaches a lower test loss than both PGD and direct softplus, and turns a plateau-bounded training trajectory into a valley-descending one.

We establish four structural results for feature learning in wide two-layer neural networks under the Maximal Update Parametrization ($μ$P). First, we prove global existence and uniqueness of the mean-field limit of noisy gradient descent under $μ$P, identifying the maximal admissible weight $w^*$ on the moment sequence of the initialization as the reciprocal parameter-moment-growth boundary, and hence the largest weighted moment class propagated by the flow. The finite-particle approximation has uniform-in-time squared-Wasserstein rate $O(N^{-1})$. Second, we characterize identifiability of the mean-field limit: two admissible parameter measures induce the same network function in $L^2$ exactly when their active components agree modulo the finite-rank realization symmetry of the architecture. The orbit depth $D^*_{\mathrm{orb}}$ is separated from the moment-variety depth $D^*_{\mathrm{var}}$. Third, under the Barron-Hermite target condition the active support of the long-time limit measure admits a sparse-dictionary decomposition: it is supported on at most $S^*$ atoms modulo finite-rank realization symmetry, with $S^*$ bounded by an explicit coefficient-threshold number. Fourth, we derive the total feature-learning-error decomposition into statistical, optimization, propagation-of-chaos, and sparse-residual components, with a target-dependent Hermite/Barron tail replacing any initialization-only residual. The four results are tied together by an architectural identity: the triple $(w^*, D^*_{\mathrm{orb}}, S^*)$ -- the maximal admissible weight, the orbit identifiability depth, and the sparse-dictionary depth at which the target is realizable -- is the natural learning cell of the architecture-data pair $(σ, ρ)$. The proofs are self-contained except for standard results from $μ$P and mean-field Langevin theory.

In this paper, we study the numerical discretization of stochastic differential equations with locally Lipschitz, super-linearly growing drift, and the resulting implications for sampling from non-log-concave distributions satisfying a logarithmic Sobolev inequality. In this regime, the classical Euler--Maruyama scheme underlying the unadjusted Langevin algorithm (ULA) is known to be unstable. We analyze the KL-accelerated tamed unadjusted Langevin algorithm (kTULA) and introduce a new tamed randomized midpoint scheme, termed tRLMC. Building on the shifted-composition approach of \cite{chewi2024local}, we develop two new local-error frameworks that yield finite-time, non-asymptotic error estimates against the underlying SDE -- in KL divergence for kTULA, and in total variation for tRLMC -- valid for general locally Lipschitz drift. Specializing these frameworks to the sampling problem under a logarithmic Sobolev inequality, we obtain a near-optimal $\widetilde{O}(\varepsilon^{-1/2})$ iteration complexity for kTULA in KL divergence, with corresponding guarantees in total variation and Wasserstein distance. We further establish, for the first time, a non-asymptotic guarantee in total variation for a tamed randomized Langevin scheme under super-linear drift growth, together with the corresponding Wasserstein-distance bound, both with $\widetilde{O}(\varepsilon^{-1})$ complexity for tRLMC. As a consequence, both schemes yield non-asymptotic bounds for a non-convex excess-risk optimization problem.

We consider graph diffusion processes constructed from finite i.i.d. samples drawn from an unknown manifold embedded in ambient Euclidean space, where the graph affinity is defined by an ambient Gaussian kernel matrix. We show that the manifold heat semigroup $Q_t = e^{tΔ}$ can be approximated directly by iterating the graph transition matrix $P$, under only low regularity assumptions on the test function $f$, including the case $f \in L^\infty$. We bound $\| P^n f - Q_t f \|$ in $\infty$-norm, with the operator application to $f$ properly defined, and we recover the classical graph-Laplacian pointwise rate $O(N^{-2/(d+6)})$ up to logarithmic factors, for diffusion times $t $ up to $O(1)$ and longer. The rate holds for in-sample error as well as out-of-sample generalization, where the estimator of $Q_t f$ at a new point is defined via kernel convolution. To handle non-uniform sampling densities on the manifold, we introduce a right-normalization of the graph transition matrix; under the assumption that the sampling density $p$ is $C^3$ and bounded away from zero, the same convergence rates hold. We numerically demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimator on simulated data.