Energy
Conversations That Matter: Working with artificial intelligence
"There is no shortage of commentary on what artificial intelligence will do to human jobs. It's easy to find a multiplicity of predictions, prescriptions, or denunciations," says Thomas H. Davenport, one of the co-authors of the book. "It is not so easy, however, to find descriptions of how people work day-to-day with smart machines." Davenport joined a Conversation That Matters about our emerging and ever-expanding relationship with a technology that scares a wide range of people including, Elon Musk and Bill Gates.
Carbon Emission Prediction on the World Bank Dataset for Canada
Desai, Aman, Gandhi, Shyamal, Gupta, Sachin, Shah, Manan, Patel, Samir
The continuous rise in CO2 emission into the environment is one of the most crucial issues facing the whole world. Many countries are making crucial decisions to control their carbon footprints to escape some of their catastrophic outcomes. There has been a lot of research going on to project the amount of carbon emissions in the future, which can help us to develop innovative techniques to deal with it in advance. Machine learning is one of the most advanced and efficient techniques for predicting the amount of carbon emissions from current data. This paper provides the methods for predicting carbon emissions (CO2 emissions) for the next few years. The predictions are based on data from the past 50 years. The dataset, which is used for making the prediction, is collected from World Bank datasets. This dataset contains CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita) of all the countries from 1960 to 2018. Our method consists of using machine learning techniques to take the idea of what carbon emission measures will look like in the next ten years and project them onto the dataset taken from the World Bank's data repository. The purpose of this research is to compare how different machine learning models (Decision Tree, Linear Regression, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine) perform on a similar dataset and measure the difference between their predictions.
Artificial Life using a Book and Bookmarker
Reproduction, development, and individual interactions are essential topics in artificial life. The cellular automata, which can handle these in a composite way, is highly restricted in its form and behavior because it represents life as a pattern of cells. In contrast, the virtual creatures proposed by Karl Sims have a very high degree of freedom in terms of morphology and behavior. However, they have limited expressive capacity in terms of those viewpoints. This study carefully extracts the characteristics of the cellular automata and Sims models to propose a new artificial life model that can simulate reproduction, development, and individual interactions while exhibiting high expressive power for morphology and behavior. The simulation was performed by sequentially reading a book with genetic information and repeatedly executing four actions: expansion, connection, disconnection, and transition. The virtual creatures in the proposed model exhibit unique survival strategies and lifestyles and acquire interesting properties in reproduction, development, and individual interactions while having freedom in morphology and behavior.
Asymptotic Optimality of Myopic Ranking and Selection Procedures
Li, Yanwen, Gao, Siyang, Shi, Zhongshun
Ranking and selection (R&S) is a popular model for studying discrete-event dynamic systems. It aims to select the best design (the design with the largest mean performance) from a finite set, where the mean of each design is unknown and has to be learned by samples. Great research efforts have been devoted to this problem in the literature for developing procedures with superior empirical performance and showing their optimality. In these efforts, myopic procedures were popular. They select the best design using a 'naive' mechanism of iteratively and myopically improving an approximation of the objective measure. Although they are based on simple heuristics and lack theoretical support, they turned out highly effective, and often achieved competitive empirical performance compared to procedures that were proposed later and shown to be asymptotically optimal. In this paper, we theoretically analyze these myopic procedures and prove that they also satisfy the optimality conditions of R&S, just like some other popular R&S methods. It explains the good performance of myopic procedures in various numerical tests, and provides good insight into the structure and theoretical development of efficient R&S procedures.
Unsupervised Wildfire Change Detection based on Contrastive Learning
Zhang, Beichen, Wang, Huiqi, Alabri, Amani, Bot, Karol, McCall, Cole, Hamilton, Dale, Růžička, Vít
The accurate characterization of the severity of the wildfire event strongly contributes to the characterization of the fuel conditions in fire-prone areas, and provides valuable information for disaster response. The aim of this study is to develop an autonomous system built on top of high-resolution multispectral satellite imagery, with an advanced deep learning method for detecting burned area change. This work proposes an initial exploration of using an unsupervised model for feature extraction in wildfire scenarios. It is based on the contrastive learning technique SimCLR, which is trained to minimize the cosine distance between augmentations of images. The distance between encoded images can also be used for change detection. We propose changes to this method that allows it to be used for unsupervised burned area detection and following downstream tasks. We show that our proposed method outperforms the tested baseline approaches.
Curious Exploration via Structured World Models Yields Zero-Shot Object Manipulation
Sancaktar, Cansu, Blaes, Sebastian, Martius, Georg
It has been a long-standing dream to design artificial agents that explore their environment efficiently via intrinsic motivation, similar to how children perform curious free play. Despite recent advances in intrinsically motivated reinforcement learning (RL), sample-efficient exploration in object manipulation scenarios remains a significant challenge as most of the relevant information lies in the sparse agent-object and object-object interactions. In this paper, we propose to use structured world models to incorporate relational inductive biases in the control loop to achieve sample-efficient and interaction-rich exploration in compositional multi-object environments. By planning for future novelty inside structured world models, our method generates free-play behavior that starts to interact with objects early on and develops more complex behavior over time. Instead of using models only to compute intrinsic rewards, as commonly done, our method showcases that the self-reinforcing cycle between good models and good exploration also opens up another avenue: zero-shot generalization to downstream tasks via model-based planning. After the entirely intrinsic task-agnostic exploration phase, our method solves challenging downstream tasks such as stacking, flipping, pick & place, and throwing that generalizes to unseen numbers and arrangements of objects without any additional training.
An Ensemble-Based Deep Framework for Estimating Thermo-Chemical State Variables from Flamelet Generated Manifolds
Salunkhe, Amol, Georgalis, Georgios, Patra, Abani, Chandola, Varun
Complete computation of turbulent combustion flow involves two separate steps: mapping reaction kinetics to low-dimensional manifolds and looking-up this approximate manifold during CFD run-time to estimate the thermo-chemical state variables. In our previous work, we showed that using a deep architecture to learn the two steps jointly, instead of separately, is 73% more accurate at estimating the source energy, a key state variable, compared to benchmarks and can be integrated within a DNS turbulent combustion framework. In their natural form, such deep architectures do not allow for uncertainty quantification of the quantities of interest: the source energy and key species source terms. In this paper, we expand on such architectures, specifically ChemTab, by introducing deep ensembles to approximate the posterior distribution of the quantities of interest. We investigate two strategies of creating these ensemble models: one that keeps the flamelet origin information (Flamelets strategy) and one that ignores the origin and considers all the data independently (Points strategy). To train these models we used flamelet data generated by the GRI--Mech 3.0 methane mechanism, which consists of 53 chemical species and 325 reactions. Our results demonstrate that the Flamelets strategy is superior in terms of the absolute prediction error for the quantities of interest, but is reliant on the types of flamelets used to train the ensemble. The Points strategy is best at capturing the variability of the quantities of interest, independent of the flamelet types. We conclude that, overall, ChemTab Deep Ensembles allows for a more accurate representation of the source energy and key species source terms, compared to the model without these modifications.
Unsupervised Representation Learning in Deep Reinforcement Learning: A Review
Botteghi, Nicolò, Poel, Mannes, Brune, Christoph
This review addresses the problem of learning abstract representations of the measurement data in the context of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL). While the data are often ambiguous, high-dimensional, and complex to interpret, many dynamical systems can be effectively described by a low-dimensional set of state variables. Discovering these state variables from the data is a crucial aspect for improving the data efficiency, robustness and generalization of DRL methods, tackling the \textit{curse of dimensionality}, and bringing interpretability and insights into black-box DRL. This review provides a comprehensive and complete overview of unsupervised representation learning in DRL by describing the main Deep Learning tools used for learning representations of the world, providing a systematic view of the method and principles, summarizing applications, benchmarks and evaluation strategies, and discussing open challenges and future directions.
High-precision Density Mapping of Marine Debris and Floating Plastics via Satellite Imagery
Booth, Henry, Ma, Wanli, Karakus, Oktay
Combining multi-spectral satellite data and machine learning has been suggested as a method for monitoring plastic pollutants in the ocean environment. Recent studies have made theoretical progress regarding the identification of marine plastic via machine learning. However, no study has assessed the application of these methods for mapping and monitoring marine-plastic density. As such, this paper comprised of three main components: (1) the development of a machine learning model, (2) the construction of the MAP-Mapper, an automated tool for mapping marine-plastic density, and finally (3) an evaluation of the whole system for out-of-distribution test locations. The findings from this paper leverage the fact that machine learning models need to be high-precision to reduce the impact of false positives on results. The developed MAP-Mapper architectures provide users choices to reach high-precision ($\textit{abbv.}$ -HP) or optimum precision-recall ($\textit{abbv.}$ -Opt) values in terms of the training/test data set. Our MAP-Mapper-HP model greatly increased the precision of plastic detection to 95\%, whilst MAP-Mapper-Opt reaches precision-recall pair of 87\%-88\%. The MAP-Mapper contributes to the literature with the first tool to exploit advanced deep/machine learning and multi-spectral imagery to map marine-plastic density in automated software. The proposed data pipeline has taken a novel approach to map plastic density in ocean regions. As such, this enables an initial assessment of the challenges and opportunities of this method to help guide future work and scientific study.
Detecting broken Absorber Tubes in CSP plants using intelligent sampling and dual loss
Pérez-Cutiño, Miguel Angel, Valverde, Juan Sebastián, Díaz-Báñez, José Miguel
Concentrated solar power (CSP) is one of the growing technologies that is leading the process of changing from fossil fuels to renewable energies. The sophistication and size of the systems require an increase in maintenance tasks to ensure reliability, availability, maintainability and safety. Currently, automatic fault detection in CSP plants using Parabolic Trough Collector systems evidences two main drawbacks: 1) the devices in use needs to be manually placed near the receiver tube, 2) the Machine Learning-based solutions are not tested in real plants. We address both gaps by combining the data extracted with the use of an Unmaned Aerial Vehicle, and the data provided by sensors placed within 7 real plants. The resulting dataset is the first one of this type and can help to standardize research activities for the problem of fault detection in this type of plants. Our work proposes supervised machine-learning algorithms for detecting broken envelopes of the absorber tubes in CSP plants. The proposed solution takes the class imbalance problem into account, boosting the accuracy of the algorithms for the minority class without harming the overall performance of the models. For a Deep Residual Network, we solve an imbalance and a balance problem at the same time, which increases by 5% the Recall of the minority class with no harm to the F1-score. Additionally, the Random Under Sampling technique boost the performance of traditional Machine Learning models, being the Histogram Gradient Boost Classifier the algorithm with the highest increase (3%) in the F1-Score. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first providing an automated solution to this problem using data from operating plants.