Neural networks have revolutionized the area of artificial intelligence and introduced transformative applications to almost every scientific field and industry. However, this success comes at a great price; the energy requirements for training advanced models are unsustainable. One promising way to address this pressing issue is by developing low-energy neuromorphic hardware that directly supports the algorithm's requirements. The intrinsic non-volatility, non-linearity, and memory of spintronic devices make them appealing candidates for neuromorphic devices. Here we focus on the reservoir computing paradigm, a recurrent network with a simple training algorithm suitable for computation with spintronic devices since they can provide the properties of non-linearity and memory. We review technologies and methods for developing neuromorphic spintronic devices and conclude with critical open issues to address before such devices become widely used.

Fingerprints are key tools in climate change detection and attribution (D&A) that are used to determine whether changes in observations are different from internal climate variability (detection), and whether observed changes can be assigned to specific external drivers (attribution). We propose a direct D&A approach based on supervised learning to extract fingerprints that lead to robust predictions under relevant interventions on exogenous variables, i.e., climate drivers other than the target. We employ anchor regression, a distributionally-robust statistical learning method inspired by causal inference that extrapolates well to perturbed data under the interventions considered. The residuals from the prediction achieve either uncorrelatedness or mean independence with the exogenous variables, thus guaranteeing robustness. We define D&A as a unified hypothesis testing framework that relies on the same statistical model but uses different targets and test statistics. In the experiments, we first show that the CO2 forcing can be robustly predicted from temperature spatial patterns under strong interventions on the solar forcing. Second, we illustrate attribution to the greenhouse gases and aerosols while protecting against interventions on the aerosols and CO2 forcing, respectively. Our study shows that incorporating robustness constraints against relevant interventions may significantly benefit detection and attribution of climate change.

Long-range time series forecasting is usually based on one of two existing forecasting strategies: Direct Forecasting and Iterative Forecasting, where the former provides low bias, high variance forecasts and the latter leads to low variance, high bias forecasts. In this paper, we propose a new forecasting strategy called Generative Forecasting (GenF), which generates synthetic data for the next few time steps and then makes long-range forecasts based on generated and observed data. We theoretically prove that GenF is able to better balance the forecasting variance and bias, leading to a much smaller forecasting error. We implement GenF via three components: (i) a novel conditional Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) based generator for synthetic time series data generation, called CWGAN-TS. (ii) a transformer based predictor, which makes long-range predictions using both generated and observed data. (iii) an information theoretic clustering algorithm to improve the training of both the CWGAN-TS and the transformer based predictor. The experimental results on five public datasets demonstrate that GenF significantly outperforms a diverse range of state-of-the-art benchmarks and classical approaches. Specifically, we find a 5% - 11% improvement in predictive performance (mean absolute error) while having a 15% - 50% reduction in parameters compared to the benchmarks. Lastly, we conduct an ablation study to further explore and demonstrate the effectiveness of the components comprising GenF.

Electricity prices in liberalized markets are determined by the supply and demand for electric power, which are in turn driven by various external influences that vary strongly in time. In perfect competition, the merit order principle describes that dispatchable power plants enter the market in the order of their marginal costs to meet the residual load, i.e. the difference of load and renewable generation. Many market models implement this principle to predict electricity prices but typically require certain assumptions and simplifications. In this article, we present an explainable machine learning model for the prices on the German day-ahead market, which substantially outperforms a benchmark model based on the merit order principle. Our model is designed for the ex-post analysis of prices and thus builds on various external features. Using Shapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values, we can disentangle the role of the different features and quantify their importance from empiric data. Load, wind and solar generation are most important, as expected, but wind power appears to affect prices stronger than solar power does. Fuel prices also rank highly and show nontrivial dependencies, including strong interactions with other features revealed by a SHAP interaction analysis. Large generation ramps are correlated with high prices, again with strong feature interactions, due to the limited flexibility of nuclear and lignite plants. Our results further contribute to model development by providing quantitative insights directly from data.

The energy consumption of private households amounts to approximately 30% of the total global energy consumption, causing a large share of the CO2 emissions through energy production. An intelligent demand response via load shifting increases the energy efficiency of residential buildings by nudging residents to change their energy consumption behavior. This paper introduces an activity prediction-based framework for the utility-based context-aware multi-agent recommendation system that generates an activity shifting schedule for a 24-hour time horizon to either focus on CO2 emissions or energy cost savings. In particular, we design and implement an Activity Agent that uses hourly energy consumption data. It does not require further sensorial data or activity labels which reduces implementation costs and the need for extensive user input. Moreover, the system enhances the utility option of saving energy costs by saving CO2 emissions and provides the possibility to focus on both dimensions. The empirical results show that while setting the focus on CO2 emissions savings, the system provides an average of 12% of emissions savings and 7% of cost savings. When focusing on energy cost savings, 20% of energy costs and 6% of emissions savings are possible for the studied households in case of accepting all recommendations. Recommending an activity schedule, the system uses the same terms residents describe their domestic life. Therefore, recommendations can be more easily integrated into daily life supporting the acceptance of the system in a long-term perspective.

Datacenter operators ensure fair and regular server maintenance by using automated processes to schedule maintenance jobs to complete within a strict time budget. Automating this scheduling problem is challenging because maintenance job duration varies based on both job type and hardware. While it is tempting to use prior machine learning techniques for predicting job duration, we find that the structure of the maintenance job scheduling problem creates a unique challenge. In particular, we show that prior machine learning methods that produce the lowest error predictions do not produce the best scheduling outcomes due to asymmetric costs. Specifically, underpredicting maintenance job duration has results in more servers being taken offline and longer server downtime than overpredicting maintenance job duration. The system cost of underprediction is much larger than that of overprediction. We present Acela, a machine learning system for predicting maintenance job duration, which uses quantile regression to bias duration predictions toward overprediction. We integrate Acela into a maintenance job scheduler and evaluate it on datasets from large-scale, production datacenters. Compared to machine learning based predictors from prior work, Acela reduces the number of servers that are taken offline by 1.87-4.28X, and reduces the server offline time by 1.40-2.80X.

Maintenance can be a complex undertaking, requiring thorough planning and an astute understanding of a facility's risk profile. This is particularly true of high-risk facilities. Maintenance does not occur in a'vacuum' and can result in costly downtimes if it is unexpected or unplanned. Even planned maintenance can lead to lengthy downtimes resulting in huge losses. For example, oil refineries in the US alone lose an estimated $47 billion from 213,000 hours of downtime each year.

OpenAI has recently released their latest Artificial Intelligence (AI) chatbot prototype powered by a model from the GPT-3.5 series. It provides a service where you can ask questions and it comes back with a detailed answer in a conversational way. Almost as if you were talking to a human! ChatGPT is based on a trained model using Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback which allows it to simulate conversation, answer follow-up questions and even admit to mistakes. Even though OpenAI's ChatGPT has recently taken the internet by storm, is it as good as it seems when it comes to dealing with a niche topic?

As sharing images in an instant message is a crucial factor, there has been active research on learning a image-text multi-modal dialogue model. However, training a well-generalized multi-modal dialogue model is challenging because existing multi-modal dialogue datasets contain a small number of data, limited topics, and a restricted variety of images per dialogue. In this paper, we present a multi-modal dialogue dataset creation pipeline that involves matching large-scale images to dialogues based on CLIP similarity. Using this automatic pipeline, we propose a large-scale multi-modal dialogue dataset, DialogCC, which covers diverse real-world topics and various images per dialogue. With extensive experiments, we demonstrate that training a multi-modal dialogue model with our dataset can improve generalization performance. Additionally, existing models trained with our dataset achieve state-of-the-art performance on image and text retrieval tasks. The source code and the dataset will be released after publication.

Spatial nonstationarity, the location variance of features' statistical distributions, is ubiquitous in many natural settings. For example, in geological reservoirs rock matrix porosity varies vertically due to geomechanical compaction trends, in mineral deposits grades vary due to sedimentation and concentration processes, in hydrology rainfall varies due to the atmosphere and topography interactions, and in metallurgy crystalline structures vary due to differential cooling. Conventional geostatistical modeling workflows rely on the assumption of stationarity to be able to model spatial features for the geostatistical inference. Nevertheless, this is often not a realistic assumption when dealing with nonstationary spatial data and this has motivated a variety of nonstationary spatial modeling workflows such as trend and residual decomposition, cosimulation with secondary features, and spatial segmentation and independent modeling over stationary subdomains. The advent of deep learning technologies has enabled new workflows for modeling spatial relationships. However, there is a paucity of demonstrated best practice and general guidance on mitigation of spatial nonstationarity with deep learning in the geospatial context. We demonstrate the impact of two common types of geostatistical spatial nonstationarity on deep learning model prediction performance and propose the mitigation of such impacts using self-attention (vision transformer) models. We demonstrate the utility of vision transformers for the mitigation of nonstationarity with relative errors as low as 10%, exceeding the performance of alternative deep learning methods such as convolutional neural networks. We establish best practice by demonstrating the ability of self-attention networks for modeling large-scale spatial relationships in the presence of commonly observed geospatial nonstationarity.