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Interpretability and causal discovery of the machine learning models to predict the production of CBM wells after hydraulic fracturing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning approaches are widely studied in the production prediction of CBM wells after hydraulic fracturing, but merely used in practice due to the low generalization ability and the lack of interpretability. A novel methodology is proposed in this article to discover the latent causality from observed data, which is aimed at finding an indirect way to interpret the machine learning results. Based on the theory of causal discovery, a causal graph is derived with explicit input, output, treatment and confounding variables. Then, SHAP is employed to analyze the influence of the factors on the production capability, which indirectly interprets the machine learning models. The proposed method can capture the underlying nonlinear relationship between the factors and the output, which remedies the limitation of the traditional machine learning routines based on the correlation analysis of factors. The experiment on the data of CBM shows that the detected relationship between the production and the geological/engineering factors by the presented method, is coincident with the actual physical mechanism. Meanwhile, compared with traditional methods, the interpretable machine learning models have better performance in forecasting production capability, averaging 20% improvement in accuracy.


Variational Quantum Soft Actor-Critic for Robotic Arm Control

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep Reinforcement Learning is emerging as a promising approach for the continuous control task of robotic arm movement. However, the challenges of learning robust and versatile control capabilities are still far from being resolved for real-world applications, mainly because of two common issues of this learning paradigm: the exploration strategy and the slow learning speed, sometimes known as "the curse of dimensionality". This work aims at exploring and assessing the advantages of the application of Quantum Computing to one of the state-of-art Reinforcement Learning techniques for continuous control - namely Soft Actor-Critic. Specifically, the performance of a Variational Quantum Soft Actor-Critic on the movement of a virtual robotic arm has been investigated by means of digital simulations of quantum circuits. A quantum advantage over the classical algorithm has been found in terms of a significant decrease in the amount of required parameters for satisfactory model training, paving the way for further promising developments.


Combined mechanistic and machine learning method for construction of oil reservoir permeability map consistent with well test measurements

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a new method for construction of the absolute permeability map consistent with the interpreted results of well logging and well test measurements in oil reservoirs. Nadaraya-Watson kernel regression is used to approximate two-dimensional spatial distribution of the rock permeability. Parameters of the kernel regression are tuned by solving the optimization problem in which, for each well placed in an oil reservoir, we minimize the difference between the actual and predicted values of (i) absolute permeability at the well location (from well logging); (ii) absolute integral permeability of the domain around the well and (iii) skin factor (from well tests). Inverse problem is solved via multiple solutions to forward problems, in which we estimate the integral permeability of reservoir surrounding a well and the skin factor by the surrogate model. The last one is developed using an artificial neural network trained on the physics-based synthetic dataset generated using the procedure comprising the numerical simulation of bottomhole pressure decline curve in reservoir simulator followed by its interpretation using a semi-analytical reservoir model. The developed method for reservoir permeability map construction is applied to the available reservoir model (Egg Model) with highly heterogeneous permeability distribution due to the presence of highly-permeable channels. We showed that the constructed permeability map is hydrodynamically similar to the original one. Numerical simulations of production in the reservoir with constructed and original permeability maps are quantitatively similar in terms of the pore pressure and fluid saturations distribution at the end of the simulation period. Moreover, we obtained an good match between the obtained results of numerical simulations in terms of the flow rates and total volumes of produced oil, water and injected water.


Microgrid Optimal Energy Scheduling Considering Neural Network based Battery Degradation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Battery energy storage system (BESS) can effec-tively mitigate the uncertainty of variable renewable generation. Degradation is unpreventable and hard to model and predict for batteries such as the most popular Lithium-ion battery (LiB). In this paper, we propose a data driven method to predict the bat-tery degradation per a given scheduled battery operational pro-file. Particularly, a neural network based battery degradation (NNBD) model is proposed to quantify the battery degradation with inputs of major battery degradation factors. When incorpo-rating the proposed NNBD model into microgrid day-ahead scheduling (MDS), we can establish a battery degradation based MDS (BDMDS) model that can consider the equivalent battery degradation cost precisely with the proposed cycle based battery usage processing (CBUP) method for the NNBD model. Since the proposed NNBD model is highly non-linear and non-convex, BDMDS would be very hard to solve. To address this issue, a neural network and optimization decoupled heuristic (NNODH) algorithm is proposed in this paper to effectively solve this neural network embedded optimization problem. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed NNODH algorithm is able to ob-tain the optimal solution with lowest total cost including normal operation cost and battery degradation cost.


Machine Learning for Microcontroller-Class Hardware: A Review

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The advancements in machine learning opened a new opportunity to bring intelligence to the low-end Internet-of-Things nodes such as microcontrollers. Conventional machine learning deployment has high memory and compute footprint hindering their direct deployment on ultra resource-constrained microcontrollers. This paper highlights the unique requirements of enabling onboard machine learning for microcontroller class devices. Researchers use a specialized model development workflow for resource-limited applications to ensure the compute and latency budget is within the device limits while still maintaining the desired performance. We characterize a closed-loop widely applicable workflow of machine learning model development for microcontroller class devices and show that several classes of applications adopt a specific instance of it. We present both qualitative and numerical insights into different stages of model development by showcasing several use cases. Finally, we identify the open research challenges and unsolved questions demanding careful considerations moving forward.


Comparison and Evaluation of Methods for a Predict+Optimize Problem in Renewable Energy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Algorithms that involve both forecasting and optimization are at the core of solutions to many difficult real-world problems, such as in supply chains (inventory optimization), traffic, and in the transition towards carbon-free energy generation in battery/load/production scheduling in sustainable energy systems. Typically, in these scenarios we want to solve an optimization problem that depends on unknown future values, which therefore need to be forecast. As both forecasting and optimization are difficult problems in their own right, relatively few research has been done in this area. This paper presents the findings of the ``IEEE-CIS Technical Challenge on Predict+Optimize for Renewable Energy Scheduling," held in 2021. We present a comparison and evaluation of the seven highest-ranked solutions in the competition, to provide researchers with a benchmark problem and to establish the state of the art for this benchmark, with the aim to foster and facilitate research in this area. The competition used data from the Monash Microgrid, as well as weather data and energy market data. It then focused on two main challenges: forecasting renewable energy production and demand, and obtaining an optimal schedule for the activities (lectures) and on-site batteries that lead to the lowest cost of energy. The most accurate forecasts were obtained by gradient-boosted tree and random forest models, and optimization was mostly performed using mixed integer linear and quadratic programming. The winning method predicted different scenarios and optimized over all scenarios jointly using a sample average approximation method.


AdverSAR: Adversarial Search and Rescue via Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Search and Rescue (SAR) missions in remote environments often employ autonomous multi-robot systems that learn, plan, and execute a combination of local single-robot control actions, group primitives, and global mission-oriented coordination and collaboration. Often, SAR coordination strategies are manually designed by human experts who can remotely control the multi-robot system and enable semi-autonomous operations. However, in remote environments where connectivity is limited and human intervention is often not possible, decentralized collaboration strategies are needed for fully-autonomous operations. Nevertheless, decentralized coordination may be ineffective in adversarial environments due to sensor noise, actuation faults, or manipulation of inter-agent communication data. In this paper, we propose an algorithmic approach based on adversarial multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) that allows robots to efficiently coordinate their strategies in the presence of adversarial inter-agent communications. In our setup, the objective of the multi-robot team is to discover targets strategically in an obstacle-strewn geographical area by minimizing the average time needed to find the targets. It is assumed that the robots have no prior knowledge of the target locations, and they can interact with only a subset of neighboring robots at any time. Based on the centralized training with decentralized execution (CTDE) paradigm in MARL, we utilize a hierarchical meta-learning framework to learn dynamic team-coordination modalities and discover emergent team behavior under complex cooperative-competitive scenarios. The effectiveness of our approach is demonstrated on a collection of prototype grid-world environments with different specifications of benign and adversarial agents, target locations, and agent rewards.


Walking Noise: Understanding Implications of Noisy Computations on Classification Tasks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning methods like neural networks are extremely successful and popular in a variety of applications, however, they come at substantial computational costs, accompanied by high energy demands. In contrast, hardware capabilities are limited and there is evidence that technology scaling is stuttering, therefore, new approaches to meet the performance demands of increasingly complex model architectures are required. As an unsafe optimization, noisy computations are more energy efficient, and given a fixed power budget also more time efficient. However, any kind of unsafe optimization requires counter measures to ensure functionally correct results. This work considers noisy computations in an abstract form, and gears to understand the implications of such noise on the accuracy of neural-network-based classifiers as an exemplary workload. We propose a methodology called "Walking Noise" that allows to assess the robustness of different layers of deep architectures by means of a so-called "midpoint noise level" metric. We then investigate the implications of additive and multiplicative noise for different classification tasks and model architectures, with and without batch normalization. While noisy training significantly increases robustness for both noise types, we observe a clear trend to increase weights and thus increase the signal-to-noise ratio for additive noise injection. For the multiplicative case, we find that some networks, with suitably simple tasks, automatically learn an internal binary representation, hence becoming extremely robust. Overall this work proposes a method to measure the layer-specific robustness and shares first insights on how networks learn to compensate injected noise, and thus, contributes to understand robustness against noisy computations.


Common Practices and Taxonomy in Deep Multi-view Fusion for Remote Sensing Applications

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The advances in remote sensing technologies have boosted applications for Earth observation. These technologies provide multiple observations or views with different levels of information. They might contain static or temporary views with different levels of resolution, in addition to having different types and amounts of noise due to sensor calibration or deterioration. A great variety of deep learning models have been applied to fuse the information from these multiple views, known as deep multi-view or multi-modal fusion learning. However, the approaches in the literature vary greatly since different terminology is used to refer to similar concepts or different illustrations are given to similar techniques. This article gathers works on multi-view fusion for Earth observation by focusing on the common practices and approaches used in the literature. We summarize and structure insights from several different publications concentrating on unifying points and ideas. In this manuscript, we provide a harmonized terminology while at the same time mentioning the various alternative terms that are used in literature. The topics covered by the works reviewed focus on supervised learning with the use of neural network models. We hope this review, with a long list of recent references, can support future research and lead to a unified advance in the area.


DDIPNet and DDIPNet+: Discriminant Deep Image Prior Networks for Remote Sensing Image Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Research on remote sensing image classification significantly impacts essential human routine tasks such as urban planning and agriculture. Nowadays, the rapid advance in technology and the availability of many high-quality remote sensing images create a demand for reliable automation methods. The current paper proposes two novel deep learning-based architectures for image classification purposes, i.e., the Discriminant Deep Image Prior Network and the Discriminant Deep Image Prior Network+, which combine Deep Image Prior and Triplet Networks learning strategies. Experiments conducted over three well-known public remote sensing image datasets achieved state-of-the-art results, evidencing the effectiveness of using deep image priors for remote sensing image classification.