With an ever-increasing number of sensors in modern society, spatio-temporal time series forecasting has become a de facto tool to make informed decisions about the future. Most spatio-temporal forecasting models typically comprise distinct components that learn spatial and temporal dependencies. A common methodology employs some Graph Neural Network (GNN) to capture relations between spatial locations, while another network, such as a recurrent neural network (RNN), learns temporal correlations. By representing every recorded sample as its own node in a graph, rather than all measurements for a particular location as a single node, temporal and spatial information is encoded in a similar manner. In this setting, GNNs can now directly learn both temporal and spatial dependencies, jointly, while also alleviating the need for additional temporal networks. Furthermore, the framework does not require aligned measurements along the temporal dimension, meaning that it also naturally facilitates irregular time series, different sampling frequencies or missing data, without the need for data imputation. To evaluate the proposed methodology, we consider wind speed forecasting as a case study, where our proposed framework outperformed other spatio-temporal models using GNNs with either Transformer or LSTM networks as temporal update functions.

Ground-motion model (GMM) is the basis of many earthquake engineering studies. In this study, a novel physics-informed symbolic learner (PISL) method based on the Nest Generation Attenuation-West2 database is proposed to automatically discover mathematical equation operators as symbols. The sequential threshold ridge regression algorithm is utilized to distill a concise and interpretable explicit characterization of complex systems of ground motions. In addition to the basic variables retrieved from previous GMMs, the current PISL incorporates two a priori physical conditions, namely, distance and amplitude saturation. GMMs developed using the PISL, an empirical regression method (ERM), and an artificial neural network (ANN) are compared in terms of residuals and extrapolation based on obtained data of peak ground acceleration and velocity. The results show that the inter- and intra-event standard deviations of the three methods are similar. The functional form of the PISL is more concise than that of the ERM and ANN. The extrapolation capability of the PISL is more accurate than that of the ANN. The PISL-GMM used in this study provide a new paradigm of regression that considers both physical and data-driven machine learning and can be used to identify the implied physical relationships and prediction equations of ground motion variables in different regions.

The complexity and ambiguity of financial and economic systems, along with frequent changes in the economic environment, have made it difficult to make precise predictions that are supported by theory-consistent explanations. Interpreting the prediction models used for forecasting important macroeconomic indicators is highly valuable for understanding relations among different factors, increasing trust towards the prediction models, and making predictions more actionable. In this study, we develop a fundamental-based model for the Canadian-U.S. dollar exchange rate within an interpretative framework. We propose a comprehensive approach using machine learning to predict the exchange rate and employ interpretability methods to accurately analyze the relationships among macroeconomic variables. Moreover, we implement an ablation study based on the output of the interpretations to improve the predictive accuracy of the models. Our empirical results show that crude oil, as Canada's main commodity export, is the leading factor that determines the exchange rate dynamics with time-varying effects. The changes in the sign and magnitude of the contributions of crude oil to the exchange rate are consistent with significant events in the commodity and energy markets and the evolution of the crude oil trend in Canada. Gold and the TSX stock index are found to be the second and third most important variables that influence the exchange rate. Accordingly, this analysis provides trustworthy and practical insights for policymakers and economists and accurate knowledge about the predictive model's decisions, which are supported by theoretical considerations.

Humans can effortlessly perform very complex, dexterous manipulation tasks by reacting to sensor observations. In contrast, robots can not perform reactive manipulation and they mostly operate in open-loop while interacting with their environment. Consequently, the current manipulation algorithms either are inefficient in performance or can only work in highly structured environments. In this paper, we present closed-loop control of a complex manipulation task where a robot uses a tool to interact with objects. Manipulation using a tool leads to complex kinematics and contact constraints that need to be satisfied for generating feasible manipulation trajectories. We first present an open-loop controller design using Non-Linear Programming (NLP) that satisfies these constraints. In order to design a closed-loop controller, we present a pose estimator of objects and tools using tactile sensors. Using our tactile estimator, we design a closed-loop controller based on Model Predictive Control (MPC). The proposed algorithm is verified using a 6 DoF manipulator on tasks using a variety of objects and tools. We verify that our closed-loop controller can successfully perform tool manipulation under several unexpected contacts. Video summarizing this work and hardware experiments are found https://youtu.be/VsClK04qDhk.

Advances in the expressivity of pretrained models have increased interest in the design of adaptation protocols which enable safe and effective transfer learning. Going beyond conventional linear probing (LP) and fine tuning (FT) strategies, protocols that can effectively control feature distortion, i.e., the failure to update features orthogonal to the in-distribution, have been found to achieve improved outof-distribution generalization (OOD). In order to limit this distortion, the LP+FT protocol, which first learns a linear probe and then uses this initialization for subsequent FT, was proposed. However, in this paper, we find when adaptation protocols (LP, FT, LP+FT) are also evaluated on a variety of safety objectives (e.g., calibration, robustness, etc.), a complementary perspective to feature distortion is helpful to explain protocol behavior. To this end, we study the susceptibility of protocols to simplicity bias (SB), i.e. the well-known propensity of deep neural networks to rely upon simple features, as SB has recently been shown to underlie several problems in robust generalization. Using a synthetic dataset, we demonstrate the susceptibility of existing protocols to SB. Given the strong effectiveness of LP+FT, we then propose modified linear probes that help mitigate SB, and lead to better initializations for subsequent FT. We verify the effectiveness of the proposed LP+FT variants for decreasing SB in a controlled setting, and their ability to improve OOD generalization and safety on three adaptation datasets. Indeed, representations from such high-quality SSL models have been found to be more robust (Hendrycks et al., 2019; Liu et al., 2021), transferable (Ericsson et al., 2021) and semantically consistent (Caron et al., 2021) than their supervised counterparts. In this regard, there is growing need for adaptation protocols that explicitly capitalize on these improved pretrained features to induce similar beneficial properties, e.g., Figure 1: Strong and Safe Adaptation. Recently, however, Kumar et al. (2022) proved that by modifying features only in the ID representation subspace, FT can lead to higher OOD error as it distorts directions outside the ID subspace that are needed for OOD generalization. As both ID and OOD subspaces are represented by the pretrained model, Kumar et al. demonstrate that limiting feature distortion, or controlling updates towards the ID subspace, can lead to improved ID and OOD performance.

This paper addresses the problem of constrained multi-objective optimization over black-box objective functions with practitioner-specified preferences over the objectives when a large fraction of the input space is infeasible (i.e., violates constraints). This problem arises in many engineering design problems including analog circuits and electric power system design. Our overall goal is to approximate the optimal Pareto set over the small fraction of feasible input designs. The key challenges include the huge size of the design space, multiple objectives and large number of constraints, and the small fraction of feasible input designs which can be identified only after performing expensive simulations. We propose a novel and efficient preference-aware constrained multi-objective Bayesian optimization approach referred to as PAC-MOO to address these challenges. The key idea is to learn surrogate models for both output objectives and constraints, and select the candidate input for evaluation in each iteration that maximizes the information gained about the optimal constrained Pareto front while factoring in the preferences over objectives. Our experiments on two real-world analog circuit design optimization problems demonstrate the efficacy of PAC-MOO over prior methods.

Automated design of efficient transformer models has recently attracted significant attention from industry and academia. However, most works only focus on certain metrics while searching for the best-performing transformer architecture. Furthermore, running traditional, complex, and large transformer models on low-compute edge platforms is a challenging problem. In this work, we propose a framework, called ProTran, to profile the hardware performance measures for a design space of transformer architectures and a diverse set of edge devices. We use this profiler in conjunction with the proposed co-design technique to obtain the best-performing models that have high accuracy on the given task and minimize latency, energy consumption, and peak power draw to enable edge deployment. We refer to our framework for co-optimizing accuracy and hardware performance measures as EdgeTran. It searches for the best transformer model and edge device pair. Finally, we propose GPTran, a multi-stage block-level grow-and-prune post-processing step that further improves accuracy in a hardware-aware manner. The obtained transformer model is 2.8$\times$ smaller and has a 0.8% higher GLUE score than the baseline (BERT-Base). Inference with it on the selected edge device enables 15.0% lower latency, 10.0$\times$ lower energy, and 10.8$\times$ lower peak power draw compared to an off-the-shelf GPU.

Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) can do inference with low power consumption due to their spike sparsity. ANN-SNN conversion is an efficient way to achieve deep SNNs by converting well-trained Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). However, the existing methods commonly use constant threshold for conversion, which prevents neurons from rapidly delivering spikes to deeper layers and causes high time delay. In addition, the same response for different inputs may result in information loss during the information transmission. Inspired by the biological model mechanism, we propose a multi-stage adaptive threshold (MSAT). Specifically, for each neuron, the dynamic threshold varies with firing history and input properties and is positively correlated with the average membrane potential and negatively correlated with the rate of depolarization. The self-adaptation to membrane potential and input allows a timely adjustment of the threshold to fire spike faster and transmit more information. Moreover, we analyze the Spikes of Inactivated Neurons error which is pervasive in early time steps and propose spike confidence accordingly as a measurement of confidence about the neurons that correctly deliver spikes. We use such spike confidence in early time steps to determine whether to elicit spike to alleviate this error. Combined with the proposed method, we examine the performance on non-trivial datasets CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and ImageNet. We also conduct sentiment classification and speech recognition experiments on the IDBM and Google speech commands datasets respectively. Experiments show near-lossless and lower latency ANN-SNN conversion. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time to build a biologically inspired multi-stage adaptive threshold for converted SNN, with comparable performance to state-of-the-art methods while improving energy efficiency.

Machine learning algorithms, especially Neural Networks (NNs), are a valuable tool used to approximate non-linear relationships, like the AC-Optimal Power Flow (AC-OPF), with considerable accuracy -- and achieving a speedup of several orders of magnitude when deployed for use. Often in power systems literature, the NNs are trained with a fixed dataset generated prior to the training process. In this paper, we show that adapting the NN training dataset during training can improve the NN performance and substantially reduce its worst-case violations. This paper proposes an algorithm that identifies and enriches the training dataset with critical datapoints that reduce the worst-case violations and deliver a neural network with improved worst-case performance guarantees. We demonstrate the performance of our algorithm in four test power systems, ranging from 39-buses to 162-buses.

Large-scale graphs with billions of edges are ubiquitous in many industries, science, and engineering fields such as recommendation systems, social graph analysis, knowledge base, material science, and biology. Graph neural networks (GNN), an emerging class of machine learning models, are increasingly adopted to learn on these graphs due to their superior performance in various graph analytics tasks. Mini-batch training is commonly adopted to train on large graphs, and data parallelism is the standard approach to scale mini-batch training to multiple GPUs. In this paper, we argue that several fundamental performance bottlenecks of GNN training systems have to do with inherent limitations of the data parallel approach. We then propose split parallelism, a novel parallel mini-batch training paradigm. We implement split parallelism in a novel system called gsplit and show that it outperforms state-of-the-art systems such as DGL, Quiver, and PaGraph.