Energy
Non-Linear PI Control Inspired by Biological Control Systems
A non-linear modification to PI control is motivated by a model of a signal transduction pathway active in mammalian blood pres(cid:173) sure regulation. This control algorithm, labeled PII (proportional with intermittent integral), is appropriate for plants requiring ex(cid:173) act set-point matching and disturbance attenuation in the presence of infrequent step changes in load disturbances or set-point. The proportional aspect of the controller is independently designed to be a disturbance attenuator and set-point matching is achieved by intermittently invoking an integral controller. The mechanisms observed in the Angiotensin 11/ AT1 signaling pathway are used to control the switching of the integral control. Improved performance over PI control is shown on a model of cyc1opentenol production.
Adding Constrained Discontinuities to Gaussian Process Models of Wind Fields
Gaussian Processes provide good prior models for spatial data, but can be too smooth. In many physical situations there are discontinuities along bounding surfaces, for example fronts in near-surface wind fields. We describe a modelling method for such a constrained discontinuity and demonstrate how to infer the model parameters in wind fields with MCMC sampling.
Neural Network Based Model Predictive Control
Model Predictive Control (MPC), a control algorithm which uses an optimizer to solve for the optimal control moves over a future time horizon based upon a model of the process, has become a stan(cid:173) dard control technique in the process industries over the past two decades. In most industrial applications, a linear dynamic model developed using empirical data is used even though the process it(cid:173) self is often nonlinear. Linear models have been used because of the difficulty in developing a generic nonlinear model from empirical data and the computational expense often involved in using non(cid:173) linear models. In this paper, we present a generic neural network based technique for developing nonlinear dynamic models from em(cid:173) pirical data and show that these models can be efficiently used in a model predictive control framework. This nonlinear MPC based approach has been successfully implemented in a number of indus(cid:173) trial applications in the refining, petrochemical, paper and food industries.
Finding the M Most Probable Configurations using Loopy Belief Propagation
Loopy belief propagation (BP) has been successfully used in a num- ber of diโcult graphical models to flnd the most probable conflgu- ration of the hidden variables. In applications ranging from protein folding to image analysis one would like to flnd not just the best conflguration but rather the top M . While this problem has been solved using the junction tree formalism, in many real world prob- lems the clique size in the junction tree is prohibitively large. In this work we address the problem of flnding the M best conflgura- tions when exact inference is impossible. We start by developing a new exact inference algorithm for calculat- ing the best conflgurations that uses only max-marginals.
Intrinsically Motivated Reinforcement Learning
Psychologists call behavior intrinsically motivated when it is engaged in for its own sake rather than as a step toward solving a specific problem of clear practical value. But what we learn during intrinsically motivated behavior is essential for our development as competent autonomous en- tities able to efficiently solve a wide range of practical problems as they arise. In this paper we present initial results from a computational study of intrinsically motivated reinforcement learning aimed at allowing arti- ficial agents to construct and extend hierarchies of reusable skills that are needed for competent autonomy. Psychologists distinguish between extrinsic motivation, which means being moved to do something because of some specific rewarding outcome, and intrinsic motivation, which refers to being moved to do something because it is inherently enjoyable. Intrinsic motiva- tion leads organisms to engage in exploration, play, and other behavior driven by curiosity in the absence of explicit reward. These activities favor the development of broad com- petence rather than being directed to more externally-directed goals (e.g., ref. [14]). In contrast, machine learning algorithms are typically applied to single problems and so do not cope flexibly with new problems as they arise over extended periods of time. Although the acquisition of competence may not be driven by specific problems, this com- petence is routinely enlisted to solve many different specific problems over the agent's lifetime.
Learning to Explore and Exploit in POMDPs
A fundamental objective in reinforcement learning is the maintenance of a proper balance between exploration and exploitation. This problem becomes more challenging when the agent can only partially observe the states of its environment. In this paper we propose a dual-policy method for jointly learning the agent behavior and the balance between exploration exploitation, in partially observable environments. The method subsumes traditional exploration, in which the agent takes actions to gather information about the environment, and active learning, in which the agent queries an oracle for optimal actions (with an associated cost for employing the oracle). The form of the employed exploration is dictated by the specific problem.
Auto-Regressive HMM Inference with Incomplete Data for Short-Horizon Wind Forecasting
Accurate short-term wind forecasts (STWFs), with time horizons from 0.5 to 6 hours, are essential for efficient integration of wind power to the electrical power grid. Physical models based on numerical weather predictions are currently not competitive, and research on machine learning approaches is ongoing. Two major challenges confronting these efforts are missing observations and weather-regime induced dependency shifts among wind variables at geographically distributed sites. In this paper we introduce approaches that address both of these challenges. We describe a new regime-aware approach to STWF that use auto-regressive hidden Markov models (AR-HMM), a subclass of conditional linear Gaussian (CLG) models.
AI Desperately Needs Global Oversight
Every time you post a photo, respond on social media, make a website, or possibly even send an email, your data is scraped, stored, and used to train generative AI technology that can create text, audio, video, and images with just a few words. This has real consequences: OpenAI researchers studying the labor market impact of their language models estimated that approximately 80 percent of the US workforce could have at least 10 percent of their work tasks affected by the introduction of large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT, while around 19 percent of workers may see at least half of their tasks impacted. In other words, the data you created may be putting you out of a job. When a company builds its technology on a public resource--the internet--it's sensible to say that that technology should be available and open to all. But critics have noted that GPT-4 lacked any clear information or specifications that would enable anyone outside the organization to replicate, test, or verify any aspect of the model.
Adaptive Learning of Smoothing Functions: Application to Electricity Load Forecasting
This paper proposes an efficient online learning algorithm to track the smoothing functions of Additive Models. The key idea is to combine the linear representation of Additive Models with a Recursive Least Squares (RLS) filter. In order to quickly track changes in the model and put more weight on recent data, the RLS filter uses a forgetting factor which exponentially weights down observations by the order of their arrival. The tracking behaviour is further enhanced by using an adaptive forgetting factor which is updated based on the gradient of the a priori errors. Using results from Lyapunov stability theory, upper bounds for the learning rate are analyzed.