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Smart Home Energy Management: VAE-GAN synthetic dataset generator and Q-learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent years have noticed an increasing interest among academia and industry towards analyzing the electrical consumption of residential buildings and employing smart home energy management systems (HEMS) to reduce household energy consumption and costs. HEMS has been developed to simulate the statistical and functional properties of actual smart grids. Access to publicly available datasets is a major challenge in this type of research. The potential of artificial HEMS applications will be further enhanced with the development of time series that represent different operating conditions of the synthetic systems. In this paper, we propose a novel variational auto-encoder-generative adversarial network (VAE-GAN) technique for generating time-series data on energy consumption in smart homes. We also explore how the generative model performs when combined with a Q-learning-based HEMS. We tested the online performance of Q-learning-based HEMS with real-world smart home data. To test the generated dataset, we measure the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), and the Wasserstein distance between the probability distributions of the real and synthetic data. Our experiments show that VAE-GAN-generated synthetic data closely matches the real data distribution. Finally, we show that the generated data allows for the training of a higher-performance Q-learning-based HEMS compared to datasets generated with baseline approaches.


Compositional Learning of Dynamical System Models Using Port-Hamiltonian Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Many dynamical systems -- from robots interacting with their surroundings to large-scale multiphysics systems -- involve a number of interacting subsystems. Toward the objective of learning composite models of such systems from data, we present i) a framework for compositional neural networks, ii) algorithms to train these models, iii) a method to compose the learned models, iv) theoretical results that bound the error of the resulting composite models, and v) a method to learn the composition itself, when it is not known a priori. The end result is a modular approach to learning: neural network submodels are trained on trajectory data generated by relatively simple subsystems, and the dynamics of more complex composite systems are then predicted without requiring additional data generated by the composite systems themselves. We achieve this compositionality by representing the system of interest, as well as each of its subsystems, as a port-Hamiltonian neural network (PHNN) -- a class of neural ordinary differential equations that uses the port-Hamiltonian systems formulation as inductive bias. We compose collections of PHNNs by using the system's physics-informed interconnection structure, which may be known a priori, or may itself be learned from data. We demonstrate the novel capabilities of the proposed framework through numerical examples involving interacting spring-mass-damper systems. Models of these systems, which include nonlinear energy dissipation and control inputs, are learned independently. Accurate compositions are learned using an amount of training data that is negligible in comparison with that required to train a new model from scratch. Finally, we observe that the composite PHNNs enjoy properties of port-Hamiltonian systems, such as cyclo-passivity -- a property that is useful for control purposes.


Generation of Accurate Translational Motion for Testing Inertial Sensors

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

An experimental setup is presented, developed for comprehensive evaluation of high performance inertial sensors for translational motion, accelerometers and geophones. It employs a precision, robust air bearing stage driven by integral brushless DC motor. Experimental results illustrate the performance and capabilities of the setup. 1 Introduction Steadily improving performance of inertial sensors (accelerometers, geophones and gyroscopes) significantly broadens the range of their applications. It also necessitates significant enhancement of the evaluation methods and equipment used throughout the sensor development process. This research is concerned with evaluating accelerometers and geophones used for accurate motion tracking and geophysical sensing.


Astronomia ex machina: a history, primer, and outlook on neural networks in astronomy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this review, we explore the historical development and future prospects of artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning in astronomy. We trace the evolution of connectionism in astronomy through its three waves, from the early use of multilayer perceptrons, to the rise of convolutional and recurrent neural networks, and finally to the current era of unsupervised and generative deep learning methods. With the exponential growth of astronomical data, deep learning techniques offer an unprecedented opportunity to uncover valuable insights and tackle previously intractable problems. As we enter the anticipated fourth wave of astronomical connectionism, we argue for the adoption of GPT-like foundation models fine-tuned for astronomical applications. Such models could harness the wealth of high-quality, multimodal astronomical data to serve state-of-the-art downstream tasks. To keep pace with advancements driven by Big Tech, we propose a collaborative, open-source approach within the astronomy community to develop and maintain these foundation models, fostering a symbiotic relationship between AI and astronomy that capitalizes on the unique strengths of both fields.


Hierarchical Bayesian Modelling for Knowledge Transfer Across Engineering Fleets via Multitask Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A population-level analysis is proposed to address data sparsity when building predictive models for engineering infrastructure. Utilising an interpretable hierarchical Bayesian approach and operational fleet data, domain expertise is naturally encoded (and appropriately shared) between different sub-groups, representing (i) use-type, (ii) component, or (iii) operating condition. Specifically, domain expertise is exploited to constrain the model via assumptions (and prior distributions) allowing the methodology to automatically share information between similar assets, improving the survival analysis of a truck fleet and power prediction in a wind farm. In each asset management example, a set of correlated functions is learnt over the fleet, in a combined inference, to learn a population model. Parameter estimation is improved when sub-fleets share correlated information at different levels of the hierarchy. In turn, groups with incomplete data automatically borrow statistical strength from those that are data-rich. The statistical correlations enable knowledge transfer via Bayesian transfer learning, and the correlations can be inspected to inform which assets share information for which effect (i.e. parameter). Both case studies demonstrate the wide applicability to practical infrastructure monitoring, since the approach is naturally adapted between interpretable fleet models of different in situ examples.


An Active Learning-based Approach for Hosting Capacity Analysis in Distribution Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With the increasing amount of distributed energy resources (DERs) integration, there is a significant need to model and analyze hosting capacity (HC) for future electric distribution grids. Hosting capacity analysis (HCA) examines the amount of DERs that can be safely integrated into the grid and is a challenging task in full generality because there are many possible integration of DERs in foresight. That is, there are numerous extreme points between feasible and infeasible sets. Moreover, HC depends on multiple factors such as (a) adoption patterns of DERs that depend on socio-economic behaviors and (b) how DERs are controlled and managed. These two factors are intrinsic to the problem space because not all integration of DERs may be centrally planned, and could largely change our understanding about HC. This paper addresses the research gap by capturing the two factors (a) and (b) in HCA and by identifying a few most insightful HC scenarios at the cost of domain knowledge. We propose a data-driven HCA framework and introduce active learning in HCA to effectively explore scenarios. Active learning in HCA and characteristics of HC with respect to the two factors (a) and (b) are illustrated in a 3-bus example. Next, detailed large-scale studies are proposed to understand the significance of (a) and (b). Our findings suggest that HC and its interpretations significantly change subject to the two factors (a) and (b).


Locking and Quacking: Stacking Bayesian model predictions by log-pooling and superposition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Combining predictions from different models is a central problem in Bayesian inference and machine learning more broadly. Currently, these predictive distributions are almost exclusively combined using linear mixtures such as Bayesian model averaging, Bayesian stacking, and mixture of experts. Such linear mixtures impose idiosyncrasies that might be undesirable for some applications, such as multi-modality. While there exist alternative strategies (e.g. geometric bridge or superposition), optimising their parameters usually involves computing an intractable normalising constant repeatedly. We present two novel Bayesian model combination tools. These are generalisations of model stacking, but combine posterior densities by log-linear pooling (locking) and quantum superposition (quacking). To optimise model weights while avoiding the burden of normalising constants, we investigate the Hyvarinen score of the combined posterior predictions. We demonstrate locking with an illustrative example and discuss its practical application with importance sampling.


Mysterious sounds in stratosphere can't be traced to any known source

New Scientist

Solar-powered balloons floating in the stratosphere have recorded low-frequency sounds of mysterious origin. "When we started flying balloons years ago, we didn't really know what we'd hear," says Daniel Bowman at Sandia National Laboratories in New Mexico. "We learned how to identify sounds from explosions, meteor crashes, aircraft, thunderstorms and cities. But virtually every time we send balloons up, we find sounds that we cannot identify." Bowman and his colleagues measured infrasound signals โ€“ sounds with a frequency so low they are inaudible to human ears โ€“ using solar-powered balloons floating 20 kilometres high.


Rigorous data-driven computation of spectral properties of Koopman operators for dynamical systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Koopman operators are infinite-dimensional operators that globally linearize nonlinear dynamical systems, making their spectral information valuable for understanding dynamics. However, Koopman operators can have continuous spectra and infinite-dimensional invariant subspaces, making computing their spectral information a considerable challenge. This paper describes data-driven algorithms with rigorous convergence guarantees for computing spectral information of Koopman operators from trajectory data. We introduce residual dynamic mode decomposition (ResDMD), which provides the first scheme for computing the spectra and pseudospectra of general Koopman operators from snapshot data without spectral pollution. Using the resolvent operator and ResDMD, we compute smoothed approximations of spectral measures associated with general measure-preserving dynamical systems. We prove explicit convergence theorems for our algorithms, which can achieve high-order convergence even for chaotic systems when computing the density of the continuous spectrum and the discrete spectrum. Since our algorithms come with error control, ResDMD allows aposteri verification of spectral quantities, Koopman mode decompositions, and learned dictionaries. We demonstrate our algorithms on the tent map, circle rotations, Gauss iterated map, nonlinear pendulum, double pendulum, and Lorenz system. Finally, we provide kernelized variants of our algorithms for dynamical systems with a high-dimensional state space. This allows us to compute the spectral measure associated with the dynamics of a protein molecule with a 20,046-dimensional state space and compute nonlinear Koopman modes with error bounds for turbulent flow past aerofoils with Reynolds number $>10^5$ that has a 295,122-dimensional state space.


Generalization Metrics for Practical Quantum Advantage in Generative Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As the quantum computing community gravitates towards understanding the practical benefits of quantum computers, having a clear definition and evaluation scheme for assessing practical quantum advantage in the context of specific applications is paramount. Generative modeling, for example, is a widely accepted natural use case for quantum computers, and yet has lacked a concrete approach for quantifying success of quantum models over classical ones. In this work, we construct a simple and unambiguous approach to probe practical quantum advantage for generative modeling by measuring the algorithm's generalization performance. Using the sample-based approach proposed here, any generative model, from state-of-the-art classical generative models such as GANs to quantum models such as Quantum Circuit Born Machines, can be evaluated on the same ground on a concrete well-defined framework. In contrast to other sample-based metrics for probing practical generalization, we leverage constrained optimization problems (e.g., cardinality-constrained problems) and use these discrete datasets to define specific metrics capable of unambiguously measuring the quality of the samples and the model's generalization capabilities for generating data beyond the training set but still within the valid solution space. Additionally, our metrics can diagnose trainability issues such as mode collapse and overfitting, as we illustrate when comparing GANs to quantum-inspired models built out of tensor networks. Our simulation results show that our quantum-inspired models have up to a $68 \times$ enhancement in generating unseen unique and valid samples compared to GANs, and a ratio of 61:2 for generating samples with better quality than those observed in the training set. We foresee these metrics as valuable tools for rigorously defining practical quantum advantage in the domain of generative modeling.