Probabilistic modeling of multidimensional spatiotemporal data is critical to many real-world applications. As real-world spatiotemporal data often exhibits complex dependencies that are nonstationary and nonseparable, developing effective and computationally efficient statistical models to accommodate nonstationary/nonseparable processes containing both long-range and short-scale variations becomes a challenging task, in particular for large-scale datasets with various corruption/missing structures. In this paper, we propose a new statistical framework -- Bayesian Complementary Kernelized Learning (BCKL) -- to achieve scalable probabilistic modeling for multidimensional spatiotemporal data. To effectively characterize complex dependencies, BCKL integrates two complementary approaches -- kernelized low-rank tensor factorization and short-range spatiotemporal Gaussian Processes. Specifically, we use a multi-linear low-rank factorization component to capture the global/long-range correlations in the data and introduce an additive short-scale GP based on compactly supported kernel functions to characterize the remaining local variabilities. We develop an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for model inference and evaluate the proposed BCKL framework on both synthetic and real-world spatiotemporal datasets. Our experiment results show that BCKL offers superior performance in providing accurate posterior mean and high-quality uncertainty estimates, confirming the importance of both global and local components in modeling spatiotemporal data.

Wind power is attracting increasing attention around the world due to its renewable, pollution-free, and other advantages. However, safely and stably integrating the high permeability intermittent power energy into electric power systems remains challenging. Accurate wind power forecasting (WPF) can effectively reduce power fluctuations in power system operations. Existing methods are mainly designed for short-term predictions and lack effective spatial-temporal feature augmentation. In this work, we propose a novel end-to-end wind power forecasting model named Hierarchical Spatial-Temporal Transformer Network (HSTTN) to address the long-term WPF problems. Specifically, we construct an hourglass-shaped encoder-decoder framework with skip-connections to jointly model representations aggregated in hierarchical temporal scales, which benefits long-term forecasting. Based on this framework, we capture the inter-scale long-range temporal dependencies and global spatial correlations with two parallel Transformer skeletons and strengthen the intra-scale connections with downsampling and upsampling operations. Moreover, the complementary information from spatial and temporal features is fused and propagated in each other via Contextual Fusion Blocks (CFBs) to promote the prediction further. Extensive experimental results on two large-scale real-world datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our HSTTN over existing solutions.

Machine learning (ML) is moving towards edge devices. However, ML models with high computational demands and energy consumption pose challenges for ML inference in resource-constrained environments, such as the deep sea. To address these challenges, we propose a battery-free ML inference and model personalization pipeline for microcontroller units (MCUs). As an example, we performed fish image recognition in the ocean. We evaluated and compared the accuracy, runtime, power, and energy consumption of the model before and after optimization. The results demonstrate that, our pipeline can achieve 97.78% accuracy with 483.82 KB Flash, 70.32 KB RAM, 118 ms runtime, 4.83 mW power, and 0.57 mJ energy consumption on MCUs, reducing by 64.17%, 12.31%, 52.42%, 63.74%, and 82.67%, compared to the baseline. The results indicate the feasibility of battery-free ML inference on MCUs.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the \textit{sequential predictive conformal inference} (\texttt{SPCI}). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of \texttt{SPCI} compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

This paper focuses on sensor fault detection and compensation for robotic manipulators. The proposed method features a new adaptive observer and a new terminal sliding mode control law established on a second-order integral sliding surface. The method enables sensor fault detection without the need to impose known bounds on fault value and/or its derivative. It also enables fast and fixed-time fault-tolerant control whose performance can be prescribed beforehand by defining funnel bounds on the tracking error. The ultimate boundedness of the estimation errors for the proposed observer and the fixed-time stability of the control system are shown using Lyapunov stability analysis. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified using numerical simulations on two different robotic manipulators, and the results are compared with existing methods. Our results demonstrate performance gains obtained by the proposed method compared to the existing results.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities across a broad range of tasks involving question answering and the generation of coherent text and code. Comprehensively understanding the strengths and weaknesses of LLMs is beneficial for safety, downstream applications and improving performance. In this work, we investigate the degree to which GPT-4 has acquired factual geographic knowledge and is capable of using this knowledge for interpretative reasoning, which is especially important for applications that involve geographic data, such as geospatial analysis, supply chain management, and disaster response. To this end, we design and conduct a series of diverse experiments, starting from factual tasks such as location, distance and elevation estimation to more complex questions such as generating country outlines and travel networks, route finding under constraints and supply chain analysis. We provide a broad characterisation of what GPT-4 (without plugins or Internet access) knows about the world, highlighting both potentially surprising capabilities but also limitations.

While contrastive self-supervised learning has become the de-facto learning paradigm for graph neural networks, the pursuit of high task accuracy requires a large hidden dimensionality to learn informative and discriminative full-precision representations, raising concerns about computation, memory footprint, and energy consumption burden (largely overlooked) for real-world applications. This paper explores a promising direction for graph contrastive learning (GCL) with spiking neural networks (SNNs), which leverage sparse and binary characteristics of SNNs to learn more biologically plausible and compact representations. We propose SpikeGCL, a novel GCL framework to learn binarized 1-bit representations for graphs, making balanced trade-offs between efficiency and performance. We provide theoretical guarantees to demonstrate that SpikeGCL has comparable expressiveness with its full-precision counterparts. Experimental results demonstrate that, with nearly 32x representation storage compression, SpikeGCL is either comparable to or outperforms many fancy state-of-the-art supervised and self-supervised methods across several graph benchmarks.

Existing relationships among time series can be exploited as inductive biases in learning effective forecasting models. In hierarchical time series, relationships among subsets of sequences induce hard constraints (hierarchical inductive biases) on the predicted values. In this paper, we propose a graph-based methodology to unify relational and hierarchical inductive biases in the context of deep learning for time series forecasting. In particular, we model both types of relationships as dependencies in a pyramidal graph structure, with each pyramidal layer corresponding to a level of the hierarchy. By exploiting modern - trainable - graph pooling operators we show that the hierarchical structure, if not available as a prior, can be learned directly from data, thus obtaining cluster assignments aligned with the forecasting objective. A differentiable reconciliation stage is incorporated into the processing architecture, allowing hierarchical constraints to act both as an architectural bias as well as a regularization element for predictions. Simulation results on representative datasets show that the proposed method compares favorably against the state of the art.

Large Language Models(LLMs) trained on large data sets came into prominence in 2018 after Google introduced BERT. Subsequently, different LLMs such as GPT models from OpenAI have been released. These models perform well on diverse tasks and have been gaining widespread applications in fields such as business and education. However, little is known about the opportunities and challenges of using LLMs in the construction industry. Thus, this study aims to assess GPT models in the construction industry. A critical review, expert discussion and case study validation are employed to achieve the study objectives. The findings revealed opportunities for GPT models throughout the project lifecycle. The challenges of leveraging GPT models are highlighted and a use case prototype is developed for materials selection and optimization. The findings of the study would be of benefit to researchers, practitioners and stakeholders, as it presents research vistas for LLMs in the construction industry.

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) is a crucial aspect of modern society, playing a pivotal role in facilitating long-term planning and developing early warning systems. While many Transformer-based models have recently been introduced for LTSF, a doubt have been raised regarding the effectiveness of attention modules in capturing cross-time dependencies. In this study, we design a mask-series experiment to validate this assumption and subsequently propose the "Cross-variable Linear Integrated ENhanced Transformer for Multivariate Long-Term Time Series Forecasting" (Client), an advanced model that outperforms both traditional Transformer-based models and linear models. Client employs linear modules to learn trend information and attention modules to capture cross-variable dependencies. Meanwhile, it simplifies the embedding and position encoding layers and replaces the decoder module with a projection layer. Essentially, Client incorporates non-linearity and cross-variable dependencies, which sets it apart from conventional linear models and Transformer-based models. Extensive experiments with nine real-world datasets have confirmed the SOTA performance of Client with the least computation time and memory consumption compared with the previous Transformer-based models. Our code is available at https://github.com/daxin007/Client.