We present a unified hard-constraint framework for solving geometrically complex PDEs with neural networks, where the most commonly used Dirichlet, Neumann, and Robin boundary conditions (BCs) are considered. Specifically, we first introduce the "extra fields" from the mixed finite element method to reformulate the PDEs so as to equivalently transform the three types of BCs into linear equations. Based on the reformulation, we derive the general solutions of the BCs analytically, which are employed to construct an ansatz that automatically satisfies the BCs. With such a framework, we can train the neural networks without adding extra loss terms and thus efficiently handle geometrically complex PDEs, alleviating the unbalanced competition between the loss terms corresponding to the BCs and PDEs. We theoretically demonstrate that the "extra fields" can stabilize the training process. Experimental results on real-world geometrically complex PDEs showcase the effectiveness of our method compared with state-of-the-art baselines.

Probabilistic time series forecasting predicts the conditional probability distributions of the time series at a future time given past realizations. Such techniques are critical in risk-based decision-making and planning under uncertainties. Existing approaches are primarily based on parametric or semi-parametric time-series models that are restrictive, difficult to validate, and challenging to adapt to varying conditions. This paper proposes a nonparametric method based on the classic notion of {\em innovations} pioneered by Norbert Wiener and Gopinath Kallianpur that causally transforms a nonparametric random process to an independent and identical uniformly distributed {\em innovations process}. We present a machine-learning architecture and a learning algorithm that circumvent two limitations of the original Wiener-Kallianpur innovations representation: (i) the need for known probability distributions of the time series and (ii) the existence of a causal decoder that reproduces the original time series from the innovations representation. We develop a deep-learning approach and a Monte Carlo sampling technique to obtain a generative model for the predicted conditional probability distribution of the time series based on a weak notion of Wiener-Kallianpur innovations representation. The efficacy of the proposed probabilistic forecasting technique is demonstrated on a variety of electricity price datasets, showing marked improvement over leading benchmarks of probabilistic forecasting techniques.

Current automated systems have crucial limitations that need to be addressed before artificial intelligence can reach human-like levels and bring new technological revolutions. Among others, our societies still lack Level 5 self-driving cars, domestic robots, and virtual assistants that learn reliable world models, reason, and plan complex action sequences. In these notes, we summarize the main ideas behind the architecture of autonomous intelligence of the future proposed by Yann LeCun. In particular, we introduce energy-based and latent variable models and combine their advantages in the building block of LeCun's proposal, that is, in the hierarchical joint embedding predictive architecture (H-JEPA).

This paper is a submission to the Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest. In it, we estimate the likelihood of transformative artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2043 and find it to be <1%. Specifically, we argue: The bar is high: AGI as defined by the contest - something like AI that can perform nearly all valuable tasks at human cost or less - which we will call transformative AGI is a much higher bar than merely massive progress in AI, or even the unambiguous attainment of expensive superhuman AGI or cheap but uneven AGI. Many steps are needed: The probability of transformative AGI by 2043 can be decomposed as the joint probability of a number of necessary steps, which we group into categories of software, hardware, and sociopolitical factors. No step is guaranteed: For each step, we estimate a probability of success by 2043, conditional on prior steps being achieved. Many steps are quite constrained by the short timeline, and our estimates range from 16% to 95%. Therefore, the odds are low: Multiplying the cascading conditional probabilities together, we estimate that transformative AGI by 2043 is 0.4% likely. Reaching >10% seems to require probabilities that feel unreasonably high, and even 3% seems unlikely. Thoughtfully applying the cascading conditional probability approach to this question yields lower probability values than is often supposed. This framework helps enumerate the many future scenarios where humanity makes partial but incomplete progress toward transformative AGI.

Smart grid data can be evaluated for anomaly detection in numerous fields, including cyber-security, fault detection, electricity theft, etc. The strange anomalous behaviors may have been caused by various reasons, including peculiar consumption patterns of the consumers, malfunctioning grid infrastructures, outages, external cyber-attacks, or energy fraud. Recently, anomaly detection of the smart grid has attracted a large amount of interest from researchers, and it is widely applied in a number of high-impact fields. One of the most significant challenges within the smart grid is the implementation of efficient anomaly detection for multiple forms of aberrant behaviors. In this paper, we provide a scoping review of research from the recent advancements in anomaly detection in the context of smart grids. We categorize our study from numerous aspects for deep understanding and inspection of the research challenges so far. Finally, after analyzing the gap in the reviewed paper, the direction for future research on anomaly detection in smart-grid systems has been provided briefly.

This paper presents a method for designing energy-aware collaboration tasks between humans and robots, and generating corresponding trajectories to carry out those tasks. The method involves using high-level specifications expressed as Signal Temporal Logic (STL) specifications to automatically synthesize task assignments and trajectories. The focus is on a specific task where a Multi-Rotor Aerial Vehicle (MRAV) performs object handovers in a power line setting. The motion planner takes into account constraints such as payload capacity and refilling, while ensuring that the generated trajectories are feasible. The approach also allows users to specify robot behaviors that prioritize human comfort, including ergonomics and user preferences. The method is validated through numerical analyses in MATLAB and realistic Gazebo simulations in a mock-up scenario.

Monitoring land cover using remote sensing is vital for studying environmental changes and ensuring global food security through crop yield forecasting. Specifically, multitemporal remote sensing imagery provides relevant information about the dynamics of a scene, which has proven to lead to better land cover classification results. Nevertheless, few studies have benefited such high spatial and temporal resolution data due to the difficulty of accessing reliable, fine-grained and high-quality annotated samples to support their hypotheses. Therefore, we introduce a temporal patch-based dataset of Canadian croplands, enriched with labels retrieved from the Canadian Annual Crop Inventory. The dataset contains 78,536 manually verified and curated high-resolution (10 m/pixel, 640 x 640 m) geo-referenced images from 10 crop classes collected over four crop production years (2017-2020) and five months (June-October). Each instance contains 12 spectral bands, an RGB image, and additional vegetation index bands. Individually, each category contains at least 4,800 images. Moreover, as a benchmark, we provide models and source code that allow a user to predict the crop class using a single image (ResNet, DenseNet, EfficientNet) or a sequence of images (LRCN, 3D-CNN) from the same location. In perspective, we expect this evolving dataset to propel the creation of robust agro-environmental models that can accelerate the comprehension of complex agricultural regions by providing accurate and continuous monitoring of land cover.

Traffic prediction plays a crucial role in alleviating traffic congestion which represents a critical problem globally, resulting in negative consequences such as lost hours of additional travel time and increased fuel consumption. Integrating emerging technologies into transportation systems provides opportunities for improving traffic prediction significantly and brings about new research problems. In order to lay the foundation for understanding the open research challenges in traffic prediction, this survey aims to provide a comprehensive overview of traffic prediction methodologies. Specifically, we focus on the recent advances and emerging research opportunities in Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based traffic prediction methods, due to their recent success and potential in traffic prediction, with an emphasis on multivariate traffic time series modeling. We first provide a list and explanation of the various data types and resources used in the literature. Next, the essential data preprocessing methods within the traffic prediction context are categorized, and the prediction methods and applications are subsequently summarized. Lastly, we present primary research challenges in traffic prediction and discuss some directions for future research.

In multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL), independent learning (IL) often shows remarkable performance and easily scales with the number of agents. Yet, using IL can be inefficient and runs the risk of failing to successfully train, particularly in scenarios that require agents to coordinate their actions. Using centralised learning (CL) enables MARL agents to quickly learn how to coordinate their behaviour but employing CL everywhere is often prohibitively expensive in real-world applications. Besides, using CL in value-based methods often needs strong representational constraints (e.g. individual-global-max condition) that can lead to poor performance if violated. In this paper, we introduce a novel plug & play IL framework named Multi-Agent Network Selection Algorithm (MANSA) which selectively employs CL only at states that require coordination. At its core, MANSA has an additional agent that uses switching controls to quickly learn the best states to activate CL during training, using CL only where necessary and vastly reducing the computational burden of CL. Our theory proves MANSA preserves cooperative MARL convergence properties, boosts IL performance and can optimally make use of a fixed budget on the number CL calls. We show empirically in Level-based Foraging (LBF) and StarCraft Multi-agent Challenge (SMAC) that MANSA achieves fast, superior and more reliable performance while making 40% fewer CL calls in SMAC and using CL at only 1% CL calls in LBF.

Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE) estimation is one of the main challenges in causal inference with observational data. In addition to Machine Learning based-models, nonparametric estimators called meta-learners have been developed to estimate the CATE with the main advantage of not restraining the estimation to a specific supervised learning method. This task becomes, however, more complicated when the treatment is not binary as some limitations of the naive extensions emerge. This paper looks into meta-learners for estimating the heterogeneous effects of multi-valued treatments. We consider different meta-learners, and we carry out a theoretical analysis of their error upper bounds as functions of important parameters such as the number of treatment levels, showing that the naive extensions do not always provide satisfactory results. We introduce and discuss meta-learners that perform well as the number of treatments increases. We empirically confirm the strengths and weaknesses of those methods with synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets.