Energy
Online Algorithms and Policies Using Adaptive and Machine Learning Approaches
Annaswamy, Anuradha M., Guha, Anubhav, Cui, Yingnan, Tang, Sunbochen, Fisher, Peter A., Gaudio, Joseph E.
This paper considers the problem of real-time control and learning in dynamic systems subjected to parametric uncertainties. We propose a combination of a Reinforcement Learning (RL) based policy in the outer loop suitably chosen to ensure stability and optimality for the nominal dynamics, together with Adaptive Control (AC) in the inner loop so that in real-time AC contracts the closed-loop dynamics towards a stable trajectory traced out by RL. Two classes of nonlinear dynamic systems are considered, both of which are control-affine. The first class of dynamic systems utilizes equilibrium points %with expansion forms around these points and a Lyapunov approach while second class of nonlinear systems uses contraction theory. AC-RL controllers are proposed for both classes of systems and shown to lead to online policies that guarantee stability using a high-order tuner and accommodate parametric uncertainties and magnitude limits on the input. In addition to establishing a stability guarantee with real-time control, the AC-RL controller is also shown to lead to parameter learning with persistent excitation for the first class of systems. Numerical validations of all algorithms are carried out using a quadrotor landing task on a moving platform.
As the AI industry booms, what toll will it take on the environment?
One question that ChatGPT can't quite answer: how much energy do you consume? "As an AI language model, I don't have a physical presence or directly consume energy," it'll say, or: "The energy consumption associated with my operations is primarily related to the servers and infrastructure used to host and run the model." Google's Bard is even more audacious. "My carbon footprint is zero," it claims. Asked about the energy that is consumed in its creation and training, it responds: "not publicly known".
Temple Grandin: A.I. Won't Destroy Us--if We Make a Crucial Change Now
I first become aware of A.I. in 1968, when I saw a movie that affected me deeply, 2001: A Space Odyssey, by the director Stanley Kubrick. I loved science-fiction movies, but this one had a special significance. As a person with autism, I'm more rational and fact-based than emotional and feeling-based, and my speech has been described as monotone or unmodulated. In high school, some of the kids called me "robot" and "tape recorder." That's part of why I related to HAL, the sentient computer who, with his steady voice and hyper-logic, helps the astronauts with their mission (until he doesn't).
MetaGL: Evaluation-Free Selection of Graph Learning Models via Meta-Learning
Park, Namyong, Rossi, Ryan, Ahmed, Nesreen, Faloutsos, Christos
Given a graph learning task, such as link prediction, on a new graph, how can we select the best method as well as its hyperparameters (collectively called a model) without having to train or evaluate any model on the new graph? Model selection for graph learning has been largely ad hoc. A typical approach has been to apply popular methods to new datasets, but this is often suboptimal. On the other hand, systematically comparing models on the new graph quickly becomes too costly, or even impractical. In this work, we develop the first meta-learning approach for evaluation-free graph learning model selection, called MetaGL, which utilizes the prior performances of existing methods on various benchmark graph datasets to automatically select an effective model for the new graph, without any model training or evaluations. To quantify similarities across a wide variety of graphs, we introduce specialized meta-graph features that capture the structural characteristics of a graph. Then we design G-M network, which represents the relations among graphs and models, and develop a graph-based meta-learner operating on this G-M network, which estimates the relevance of each model to different graphs. Extensive experiments show that using MetaGL to select a model for the new graph greatly outperforms several existing meta-learning techniques tailored for graph learning model selection (up to 47% better), while being extremely fast at test time (~1 sec).
Action Matching: Learning Stochastic Dynamics from Samples
Neklyudov, Kirill, Brekelmans, Rob, Severo, Daniel, Makhzani, Alireza
Learning the continuous dynamics of a system from snapshots of its temporal marginals is a problem which appears throughout natural sciences and machine learning, including in quantum systems, single-cell biological data, and generative modeling. In these settings, we assume access to cross-sectional samples that are uncorrelated over time, rather than full trajectories of samples. In order to better understand the systems under observation, we would like to learn a model of the underlying process that allows us to propagate samples in time and thereby simulate entire individual trajectories. In this work, we propose Action Matching, a method for learning a rich family of dynamics using only independent samples from its time evolution. We derive a tractable training objective, which does not rely on explicit assumptions about the underlying dynamics and does not require back-propagation through differential equations or optimal transport solvers. Inspired by connections with optimal transport, we derive extensions of Action Matching to learn stochastic differential equations and dynamics involving creation and destruction of probability mass. Finally, we showcase applications of Action Matching by achieving competitive performance in a diverse set of experiments from biology, physics, and generative modeling.
Safe Planning in Dynamic Environments using Conformal Prediction
Lindemann, Lars, Cleaveland, Matthew, Shim, Gihyun, Pappas, George J.
We propose a framework for planning in unknown dynamic environments with probabilistic safety guarantees using conformal prediction. Particularly, we design a model predictive controller (MPC) that uses i) trajectory predictions of the dynamic environment, and ii) prediction regions quantifying the uncertainty of the predictions. To obtain prediction regions, we use conformal prediction, a statistical tool for uncertainty quantification, that requires availability of offline trajectory data - a reasonable assumption in many applications such as autonomous driving. The prediction regions are valid, i.e., they hold with a user-defined probability, so that the MPC is provably safe. We illustrate the results in the self-driving car simulator CARLA at a pedestrian-filled intersection. The strength of our approach is compatibility with state of the art trajectory predictors, e.g., RNNs and LSTMs, while making no assumptions on the underlying trajectory-generating distribution. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first results that provide valid safety guarantees in such a setting.
Regret Bounds for Markov Decision Processes with Recursive Optimized Certainty Equivalents
Xu, Wenhao, Gao, Xuefeng, He, Xuedong
Reinforcement learning (RL) studies the problem of sequential decision making in an unknown environment by carefully balancing between exploration and exploitation (Sutton and Barto 2018). In the classical setting, it describes how an agent takes actions to maximize expected cumulative rewards in an environment typically modeled by a Markov decision process (MDP, Puterman (2014)). However, optimizing the expected cumulative rewards alone is often not sufficient in many practical applications such as finance, healthcare and robotics. Hence, it may be necessary to take into account of the risk preferences of the agent in the dynamic decision process. Indeed, a rich body of literature has studied risk-sensitive (and safe) RL, incorporating risk measures such as the entropic risk measure and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) in the decision criterion, see, e.g., Shen et al. (2014), Garcıa and Fernández (2015), Tamar et al. (2016), Chow et al. (2017), Prashanth L and Fu (2018), Fei et al. (2020) and the references therein. In this paper we study risk-sensitive RL for tabular MDPs with unknown transition probabilities in the finite-horizon, episodic setting, where an agent interacts with the MDP in episodes of a fixed length with finite state and action spaces. To incorporate risk sensitivity, we consider a broad and important class of risk measures known as Optimized Certainty Equivalent (OCE, (Ben-Tal and Teboulle 1986, 2007)). The OCE is a (nonlinear) risk function which assigns a random variable X to a real value, and it depends on a concave utility function, see Equation (1) for the definition.
GPT Self-Supervision for a Better Data Annotator
Pei, Xiaohuan, Li, Yanxi, Xu, Chang
The task of annotating data into concise summaries poses a significant challenge across various domains, frequently requiring the allocation of significant time and specialized knowledge by human experts. Despite existing efforts to use large language models for annotation tasks, significant problems such as limited applicability to unlabeled data, the absence of self-supervised methods, and the lack of focus on complex structured data still persist. In this work, we propose a GPT self-supervision annotation method, which embodies a generating-recovering paradigm that leverages the one-shot learning capabilities of the Generative Pretrained Transformer (GPT). The proposed approach comprises a one-shot tuning phase followed by a generation phase. In the one-shot tuning phase, we sample a data from the support set as part of the prompt for GPT to generate a textual summary, which is then used to recover the original data. The alignment score between the recovered and original data serves as a self-supervision navigator to refine the process. In the generation stage, the optimally selected one-shot sample serves as a template in the prompt and is applied to generating summaries from challenging datasets. The annotation performance is evaluated by tuning several human feedback reward networks and by calculating alignment scores between original and recovered data at both sentence and structure levels. Our self-supervised annotation method consistently achieves competitive scores, convincingly demonstrating its robust strength in various data-to-summary annotation tasks.
Learning Closed-form Equations for Subgrid-scale Closures from High-fidelity Data: Promises and Challenges
Jakhar, Karan, Guan, Yifei, Mojgani, Rambod, Chattopadhyay, Ashesh, Hassanzadeh, Pedram, Zanna, Laura
There is growing interest in discovering interpretable, closed-form equations for subgrid-scale (SGS) closures/parameterizations of complex processes in Earth system. Here, we apply a common equation-discovery technique with expansive libraries to learn closures from filtered direct numerical simulations of 2D forced turbulence and Rayleigh-B\'enard convection (RBC). Across common filters, we robustly discover closures of the same form for momentum and heat fluxes. These closures depend on nonlinear combinations of gradients of filtered variables (velocity, temperature), with constants that are independent of the fluid/flow properties and only depend on filter type/size. We show that these closures are the nonlinear gradient model (NGM), which is derivable analytically using Taylor-series expansions. In fact, we suggest that with common (physics-free) equation-discovery algorithms, regardless of the system/physics, discovered closures are always consistent with the Taylor-series. Like previous studies, we find that large-eddy simulations with NGM closures are unstable, despite significant similarities between the true and NGM-predicted fluxes (pattern correlations $> 0.95$). We identify two shortcomings as reasons for these instabilities: in 2D, NGM produces zero kinetic energy transfer between resolved and subgrid scales, lacking both diffusion and backscattering. In RBC, backscattering of potential energy is poorly predicted. Moreover, we show that SGS fluxes diagnosed from data, presumed the "truth" for discovery, depend on filtering procedures and are not unique. Accordingly, to learn accurate, stable closures from high-fidelity data in future work, we propose several ideas around using physics-informed libraries, loss functions, and metrics. These findings are relevant beyond turbulence to closure modeling of any multi-scale system.
Spain on Fire: A novel wildfire risk assessment model based on image satellite processing and atmospheric information
Liz-López, Helena, Huertas-Tato, Javier, Pérez-Aracil, Jorge, Casanova-Mateo, Carlos, Sanz-Justo, Julia, Camacho, David
Each year, wildfires destroy larger areas of Spain, threatening numerous ecosystems. Humans cause 90% of them (negligence or provoked) and the behaviour of individuals is unpredictable. However, atmospheric and environmental variables affect the spread of wildfires, and they can be analysed by using deep learning. In order to mitigate the damage of these events we proposed the novel Wildfire Assessment Model (WAM). Our aim is to anticipate the economic and ecological impact of a wildfire, assisting managers resource allocation and decision making for dangerous regions in Spain, Castilla y Le\'on and Andaluc\'ia. The WAM uses a residual-style convolutional network architecture to perform regression over atmospheric variables and the greenness index, computing necessary resources, the control and extinction time, and the expected burnt surface area. It is first pre-trained with self-supervision over 100,000 examples of unlabelled data with a masked patch prediction objective and fine-tuned using 311 samples of wildfires. The pretraining allows the model to understand situations, outclassing baselines with a 1,4%, 3,7% and 9% improvement estimating human, heavy and aerial resources; 21% and 10,2% in expected extinction and control time; and 18,8% in expected burnt area. Using the WAM we provide an example assessment map of Castilla y Le\'on, visualizing the expected resources over an entire region.