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 Energy


An XAI framework for robust and transparent data-driven wind turbine power curve models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Wind turbine power curve models translate ambient conditions into turbine power output. They are essential for energy yield prediction and turbine performance monitoring. In recent years, increasingly complex machine learning methods have become state-of-the-art for this task. Nevertheless, they frequently encounter criticism due to their apparent lack of transparency, which raises concerns regarding their performance in non-stationary environments, such as those faced by wind turbines. We, therefore, introduce an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) framework to investigate and validate strategies learned by data-driven power curve models from operational wind turbine data. With the help of simple, physics-informed baseline models it enables an automated evaluation of machine learning models beyond standard error metrics. Alongside this novel tool, we present its efficacy for a more informed model selection. We show, for instance, that learned strategies can be meaningful indicators for a model's generalization ability in addition to test set errors, especially when only little data is available. Moreover, the approach facilitates an understanding of how decisions along the machine learning pipeline, such as data selection, pre-processing, or training parameters, affect learned strategies. In a practical example, we demonstrate the framework's utilisation to obtain more physically meaningful models, a prerequisite not only for robustness but also for insights into turbine operation by domain experts. The latter, we demonstrate in the context of wind turbine performance monitoring. Alongside this paper, we publish a Python implementation of the presented framework and hope this can guide researchers and practitioners alike toward training, selecting and utilizing more transparent and robust data-driven wind turbine power curve models.


A Hierarchical Approach to Optimal Flow-Based Routing and Coordination of Connected and Automated Vehicles

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper addresses the challenge of generating optimal vehicle flow at the macroscopic level. Although several studies have focused on optimizing vehicle flow, little attention has been given to ensuring it can be practically achieved. To overcome this issue, we propose a route-recovery and eco-driving strategy for connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) that guarantees optimal flow generation. Our approach involves identifying the optimal vehicle flow that minimizes total travel time, given the constant travel demands in urban areas. We then develop a heuristic route-recovery algorithm to assign routes to CAVs. Finally, we present an efficient coordination framework to minimize the energy consumption of CAVs while safely crossing intersections. The proposed method can effectively generate optimal vehicle flow and potentially reduce travel time and energy consumption in urban areas.


Internet Explorer: Targeted Representation Learning on the Open Web

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modern vision models typically rely on fine-tuning general-purpose models pre-trained on large, static datasets. These general-purpose models only capture the knowledge within their pre-training datasets, which are tiny, out-of-date snapshots of the Internet -- where billions of images are uploaded each day. We suggest an alternate approach: rather than hoping our static datasets transfer to our desired tasks after large-scale pre-training, we propose dynamically utilizing the Internet to quickly train a small-scale model that does extremely well on the task at hand. Our approach, called Internet Explorer, explores the web in a self-supervised manner to progressively find relevant examples that improve performance on a desired target dataset. It cycles between searching for images on the Internet with text queries, self-supervised training on downloaded images, determining which images were useful, and prioritizing what to search for next. We evaluate Internet Explorer across several datasets and show that it outperforms or matches CLIP oracle performance by using just a single GPU desktop to actively query the Internet for 30--40 hours. Results, visualizations, and videos at https://internet-explorer-ssl.github.io/


An Informative Path Planning Framework for Active Learning in UAV-based Semantic Mapping

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are frequently used for aerial mapping and general monitoring tasks. Recent progress in deep learning enabled automated semantic segmentation of imagery to facilitate the interpretation of large-scale complex environments. Commonly used supervised deep learning for segmentation relies on large amounts of pixel-wise labelled data, which is tedious and costly to annotate. The domain-specific visual appearance of aerial environments often prevents the usage of models pre-trained on publicly available datasets. To address this, we propose a novel general planning framework for UAVs to autonomously acquire informative training images for model re-training. Our framework combines the mapped acquisition function information into the UAV's planning objectives. In this way, the UAV adaptively acquires informative aerial images to be manually labelled for model re-training. Experimental results on real-world data and in a photorealistic simulation show that our framework maximises model performance and drastically reduces labelling efforts. Our map-based planners outperform state-of-the-art local planning. Our map-based planners replan a UAV's path (orange, bottom-left) to collect the most informative, e.g. Combined with advances in deep learning for semantic segmentation through fully convolutional improve the robot's vision capabilities in initially unknown neural networks (FCNs) [9, 10], deploying UAVs accelerates environments while minimising the total amount of humanlabelled automated scene understanding in large-scale and complex data. To this end, our approach exploits ideas from aerial environments [11]. Classical deep learning-based semantic AL research and incorporates them into a new informative segmentation models often used in this context are path planning (IPP) framework.


Unified Bayesian Frameworks for Multi-criteria Decision-making Problems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper introduces Bayesian frameworks for tackling various aspects of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems, leveraging a probabilistic interpretation of MCDM methods and challenges. By harnessing the flexibility of Bayesian models, the proposed frameworks offer statistically elegant solutions to key challenges in MCDM, such as group decision-making problems and criteria correlation. Additionally, these models can accommodate diverse forms of uncertainty in decision makers' (DMs) preferences, including normal and triangular distributions, as well as interval preferences. To address large-scale group MCDM scenarios, a probabilistic mixture model is developed, enabling the identification of homogeneous subgroups of DMs. Furthermore, a probabilistic ranking scheme is devised to assess the relative importance of criteria and alternatives based on DM(s) preferences. Through experimentation on various numerical examples, the proposed frameworks are validated, demonstrating their effectiveness and highlighting their distinguishing features in comparison to alternative methods.


Interpretation of High-Dimensional Linear Regression: Effects of Nullspace and Regularization Demonstrated on Battery Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

High-dimensional linear regression is important in many scientific fields. This article considers discrete measured data of underlying smooth latent processes, as is often obtained from chemical or biological systems. Interpretation in high dimensions is challenging because the nullspace and its interplay with regularization shapes regression coefficients. The data's nullspace contains all coefficients that satisfy $\mathbf{Xw}=\mathbf{0}$, thus allowing very different coefficients to yield identical predictions. We developed an optimization formulation to compare regression coefficients and coefficients obtained by physical engineering knowledge to understand which part of the coefficient differences are close to the nullspace. This nullspace method is tested on a synthetic example and lithium-ion battery data. The case studies show that regularization and z-scoring are design choices that, if chosen corresponding to prior physical knowledge, lead to interpretable regression results. Otherwise, the combination of the nullspace and regularization hinders interpretability and can make it impossible to obtain regression coefficients close to the true coefficients when there is a true underlying linear model. Furthermore, we demonstrate that regression methods that do not produce coefficients orthogonal to the nullspace, such as fused lasso, can improve interpretability. In conclusion, the insights gained from the nullspace perspective help to make informed design choices for building regression models on high-dimensional data and reasoning about potential underlying linear models, which are important for system optimization and improving scientific understanding.


On the Effects of Heterogeneous Errors on Multi-fidelity Bayesian Optimization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a sequential optimization strategy that is increasingly employed in a wide range of areas including materials design. In real world applications, acquiring high-fidelity (HF) data through physical experiments or HF simulations is the major cost component of BO. To alleviate this bottleneck, multi-fidelity (MF) methods are used to forgo the sole reliance on the expensive HF data and reduce the sampling costs by querying inexpensive low-fidelity (LF) sources whose data are correlated with HF samples. However, existing multi-fidelity BO (MFBO) methods operate under the following two assumptions that rarely hold in practical applications: (1) LF sources provide data that are well correlated with the HF data on a global scale, and (2) a single random process can model the noise in the fused data. These assumptions dramatically reduce the performance of MFBO when LF sources are only locally correlated with the HF source or when the noise variance varies across the data sources. In this paper, we dispense with these incorrect assumptions by proposing an MF emulation method that (1) learns a noise model for each data source, and (2) enables MFBO to leverage highly biased LF sources which are only locally correlated with the HF source. We illustrate the performance of our method through analytical examples and engineering problems on materials design.


Gove may be lifting England onshore ban, but wind still faces hurdles

The Guardian > Energy

Michael Gove's plans to lift the onshore wind ban are finally here, after what campaigners have termed a "Tory obsession" with blocking the form of renewable energy. Since 2015, it has been almost impossible to erect wind turbines in England because the planning system was changed so even one objection from a local resident could derail an entire project – an incredibly stringent interpretation of community consent. Just 20 turbines have been approved since 2014 as a result. It has taken years of campaigning – and squabbling – within the government and the backbenches to get to this point, which could make it slightly easier to build renewables. Though what the housing secretary has proposed is better than the previous situation, it still leaves onshore wind at a disadvantage compared with any other infrastructure project and campaigners say developers will still not invest in building windfarms if their proposals could be squashed by local councillors.


De facto ban lifted on building onshore windfarms in England

The Guardian > Energy

Michael Gove has loosened restrictions on building onshore windfarms in England, meaning developments will no longer be quashed by one objection, but campaigners have said such schemes are still at a disadvantage. The communities secretary announced on Tuesday that the government would make a series of changes to the planning system in order to lift a de facto ban on the structures that has been in place since 2015. The move comes after a long campaign by Conservative MPs to overturn the 2015 rules, which have allowed local authorities to block new turbines based on just one complaint. Those rules have led to just 20 new onshore turbines being given planning permission in the last nine years. Gove said: "To increase our energy security and develop a cleaner, greener economy, we are introducing new measures to allow local communities to back onshore wind power projects. This will only apply in areas where developments have community support, but these changes will help build on Britain's enormous success as a global leader in offshore wind, helping us on our journey to net zero."


Improving equilibrium propagation without weight symmetry through Jacobian homeostasis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Equilibrium propagation (EP) is a compelling alternative to the backpropagation of error algorithm (BP) for computing gradients of neural networks on biological or analog neuromorphic substrates. Still, the algorithm requires weight symmetry and infinitesimal equilibrium perturbations, i.e., nudges, to estimate unbiased gradients efficiently. Both requirements are challenging to implement in physical systems. Yet, whether and how weight asymmetry affects its applicability is unknown because, in practice, it may be masked by biases introduced through the finite nudge. To address this question, we study generalized EP, which can be formulated without weight symmetry, and analytically isolate the two sources of bias. For complex-differentiable non-symmetric networks, we show that the finite nudge does not pose a problem, as exact derivatives can still be estimated via a Cauchy integral. In contrast, weight asymmetry introduces bias resulting in low task performance due to poor alignment of EP's neuronal error vectors compared to BP. To mitigate this issue, we present a new homeostatic objective that directly penalizes functional asymmetries of the Jacobian at the network's fixed point. This homeostatic objective dramatically improves the network's ability to solve complex tasks such as ImageNet 32x32. Our results lay the theoretical groundwork for studying and mitigating the adverse effects of imperfections of physical networks on learning algorithms that rely on the substrate's relaxation dynamics.