Accurate electricity forecasting is crucial for grid stability and energy planning, especially in Benghazi, Libya, where frequent load shedding, generation deficits, and infrastructure limitations persist. This study proposes a data-driven approach to forecast electricity load, generation, and deficits for 2025 using historical data from 2019 (a year marked by instability) and 2023 (a more stable year). Multiple time series models were applied, including ARIMA, seasonal ARIMA, dynamic regression ARIMA, exponential smoothing, extreme gradient boosting, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks. The dataset was enhanced through missing value imputation, outlier smoothing, and log transformation. Performance was assessed using mean squared error, root mean squared error, mean absolute error, and mean absolute percentage error. LSTM outperformed all other models, showing strong capabilities in modeling non-stationary and seasonal patterns. A key contribution of this work is an optimized LSTM framework that integrates exogenous factors such as temperature and humidity, offering robust performance in forecasting multiple electricity indicators. These results provide practical insights for policymakers and grid operators to enable proactive load management and resource planning in data-scarce, volatile regions.

Harmful algal blooms are a growing threat to inland water quality and public health worldwide, creating an urgent need for e fficient, accurate, and cost-e ff ective detection methods. This research introduces a high-performing methodology that integrates multiple open-source remote sensing data with advanced artificial intelligence models. Key data sources include Copernicus Sentinel-2 optical imagery, the Copernicus Digital Elevation Model (DEM), and NOAA's High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) climate data, all e ffi ciently retrieved using platforms like Google Earth Engine (GEE) and Microsoft Planetary Computer (MPC). The NIR and two SWIR bands from Sentinel-2, the altitude from the elevation model, the temperature and wind from NOAA as well as the longitude and latitude were the most important features. The approach combines two types of machine learning models--tree-based models and a neural network--into an ensemble for classifying algal bloom severity. While the tree models performed strongly on their own, incorporating a neural network added robustness and demonstrated how deep learning models can e ff ectively use diverse remote sensing inputs. The method leverages high-resolution satellite imagery and AI-driven analysis to monitor algal blooms dynamically, and although initially developed for a NASA competition in the U.S., it shows potential for global application. Keywords: Machine learning; Inland Water; Algal Bloom; Remote Sensing; Data Fusion; Water Quality 1. Introduction Algal blooms are becoming the greatest inland water quality threat to public health and aquatic ecosystems that can degrade water quality to a greater extent than many chemicals (Brooks et al., 2016). Human nutrient loading and climate change (warming, altered rainfall) synergistically enhance cyanobacterial blooms in aquatic ecosystems (Paerl and Paul, 2012). Excessive nutrient loads in many cases comes from agricultural, industrial and other sources (Novotny, 2011). Phenology and trends of chlorophyll-a and cyanobacterial blooms are established (Matthews, 2014).

In this episode of, we talk to writer Evan Ratliff about how he created a small startup made entirely of AI employees--and what his findings reveal about the reality of an agentic future. This year, AI agents have been at the forefront of tech companies' ambitions. OpenAI's Sam Altman has often talked about a possible billion-dollar company being spun up with just one human and an army of AI agents. And so last summer, journalist Evan Ratliff decided to try to become that unicorn himself--by creating HarumoAI, a small startup that's made up of AI employees and executives. Hosts Michael Calore and Lauren Goode sit down with Evan to discuss how it's going, and the current promises and realities of AI agents. Write to us at uncannyvalley@wired.com . You can always listen to this week's podcast through the audio player on this page, but if you want to subscribe for free to get every episode, here's how: If you're on an iPhone or iPad, open the app called Podcasts, or just tap this link . Hey, Lauren, how are you doing? It was so fantastic that I had a hard time coming back, honestly. And I saw a lot of really beautiful art. Not a bad place to go for vacation, I have to say. I've heard this before, I confirmed it. And after seeing so much incredible art and just people doing stuff with their hands and tangible goods, I was like, I don't want to go back to the world of AI. I didn't want to go back to sitting in a coffee shop and hearing everyone pitching their AI startups and driving on the 101 and seeing the billboards. I was just like, What? No, keep me in the land of Burrata and Caravaggio. Well, Lauren, I'm sorry to tell you that you came back on the show just in time to talk about AI agents. It's something that we've talked about a lot this year and our listeners have heard about it a lot, and we're not sick of talking about it.

OpenAI is testing a new way to expose the complicated processes at work inside large language models. Researchers at the company can make an LLM produce what they call a confession, in which the model explains how it carried out a task and (most of the time) own up to any bad behavior. Figuring out why large language models do what they do--and in particular why they sometimes appear to lie, cheat, and deceive--is one of the hottest topics in AI right now. If this multitrillion-dollar technology is to be deployed as widely as its makers hope it will be, it must be made more trustworthy. OpenAI sees confessions as one step toward that goal. Sometimes geothermal hot spots are obvious, marked by geysers and hot springs on Earth's surface.

Zanskar used AI tools to identify a site that could host a commercial power plant. Zanskar used AI tools to help revive a New Mexico geothermal plant. Now, the company found a hotspot that could support a new power plant. Sometimes geothermal hot spots are obvious, marked by geysers and hot springs on the planet's surface. But in other places, they're obscured thousands of feet underground. Now AI could help uncover these hidden pockets of potential power.

Zanskar uses AI to identify hidden geothermal systems--and claims it has found one that could fuel a power plant, the first such discovery by industry in decades. A geothermal startup said Thursday that it has hit gold in Nevada--metaphorically speaking. Zanskar, which uses AI to find hidden geothermal resources deep underground, says that it has identified a new commercially viable site for a potential power plant. The discovery, the company claims, is the first of its kind made by the industry in decades. The find is the culmination of years of research on how to find these resources--and points to the growing promise of geothermal energy .

Infinite hidden Markov models provide a flexible framework for modelling time series with structural changes and complex dynamics, without requiring the number of latent states to be specified in advance. This flexibility is achieved through the hierarchical Dirichlet process prior, while efficient Bayesian inference is enabled by the beam sampler, which combines dynamic programming with slice sampling to truncate the infinite state space adaptively. Despite extensive methodological developments, the role of initialization in this framework has received limited attention. This study addresses this gap by systematically evaluating initialization strategies commonly used for finite hidden Markov models and assessing their suitability in the infinite setting. Results from both simulated and real datasets show that distance-based clustering initializations consistently outperform model-based and uniform alternatives, the latter being the most widely adopted in the existing literature.

Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) encode conditional dependencies among random variables using a graph -nodes for variables, links for dependencies- and factorize the joint distribution into lower-dimensional components. This makes PGMs well-suited for analyzing complex systems and supporting decision-making. Recent advances in topological signal processing highlight the importance of variables defined on topological spaces in several application domains. In such cases, the underlying topology shapes statistical relationships, limiting the expressiveness of canonical PGMs. To overcome this limitation, we introduce Colored Markov Random Fields (CMRFs), which model both conditional and marginal dependencies among Gaussian edge variables on topological spaces, with a theoretical foundation in Hodge theory. CMRFs extend classical Gaussian Markov Random Fields by including link coloring: connectivity encodes conditional independence, while color encodes marginal independence. We quantify the benefits of CMRFs through a distributed estimation case study over a physical network, comparing it with baselines with different levels of topological prior.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is a critical component of large language model (LLM) post-training. However, on-policy algorithms used for post-training are not naturally robust to a diversified content of experience replay buffers, which asynchronous off-policy actors can efficiently populate in parallel to training. We propose efficiently learning on such off-policy data via Trajectory Balance with Asynchrony (TBA), an approach to asynchronous RL for LLMs that leverages the principled off-policy TB objective. On math, preference-tuning, and automated red-teaming tasks, we post-train models ranging from Pythia 410M to Qwen 2.5 7B, finding TBA offers speed and performance boosts over strong baselines like Online DPO and Dr. GRPO. Beyond TBA's performance benefits (high accuracy even as asynchrony grows) and speedups ($4\times$ or more), we show its reward- and recency-prioritizing sampling enable further gains as data generation is scaled. Our code is available at https://github.com/bbartoldson/TBA.

Prior Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models are typically trained on teleoperated successful demonstrations, while discarding numerous failed attempts that occur naturally during data collection. However, these failures encode where and how policies can be fragile, information that can be exploited to improve robustness. We address this problem by leveraging mixed-quality datasets to learn failure-aware reasoning at planning time. We introduce VINE, a hierarchical vision-language-action model that separates high-level reasoning (System 2) from low-level control (System 1) under a hierarchical reinforcement learning formalism, making failures usable as a structured learning signal rather than noisy supervision. System 2 performs feasibility-guided tree search over a 2D scene-graph abstraction: it proposes subgoal transitions, predicts success probabilities from both successes and failures, and prunes brittle branches before execution, effectively casting plan evaluation as feasibility scoring. The selected subgoal sequence is then passed to System 1, which executes low-level actions without modifying the agent's core skills. Trained entirely from offline teleoperation data, VINE integrates negative experience directly into the decision loop. Across challenging manipulation tasks, this approach consistently improves success rates and robustness, demonstrating that failure data is an essential resource for converting the broad competence of VLAs into robust execution.