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Algorithmic Hallucinations of Near-Surface Winds: Statistical Downscaling with Generative Adversarial Networks to Convection-Permitting Scales

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper explores the application of emerging machine learning methods from image super-resolution (SR) to the task of statistical downscaling. We specifically focus on convolutional neural network-based Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). Our GANs are conditioned on low-resolution (LR) inputs to generate high-resolution (HR) surface winds emulating Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations over North America. Unlike traditional SR models, where LR inputs are idealized coarsened versions of the HR images, WRF emulation involves using non-idealized LR and HR pairs resulting in shared-scale mismatches due to internal variability. Our study builds upon current SR-based statistical downscaling by experimenting with a novel frequency-separation (FS) approach from the computer vision field. To assess the skill of SR models, we carefully select evaluation metrics, and focus on performance measures based on spatial power spectra. Our analyses reveal how GAN configurations influence spatial structures in the generated fields, particularly biases in spatial variability spectra. Using power spectra to evaluate the FS experiments reveals that successful applications of FS in computer vision do not translate to climate fields. However, the FS experiments demonstrate the sensitivity of power spectra to a commonly used GAN-based SR objective function, which helps interpret and understand its role in determining spatial structures. This result motivates the development of a novel partial frequency-separation scheme as a promising configuration option. We also quantify the influence on GAN performance of non-idealized LR fields resulting from internal variability. Furthermore, we conduct a spectra-based feature-importance experiment allowing us to explore the dependence of the spatial structure of generated fields on different physically relevant LR covariates.


A Unifying Perspective on Non-Stationary Kernels for Deeper Gaussian Processes

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The Gaussian process (GP) is a popular statistical technique for stochastic function approximation and uncertainty quantification from data. GPs have been adopted into the realm of machine learning in the last two decades because of their superior prediction abilities, especially in data-sparse scenarios, and their inherent ability to provide robust uncertainty estimates. Even so, their performance highly depends on intricate customizations of the core methodology, which often leads to dissatisfaction among practitioners when standard setups and off-the-shelf software tools are being deployed. Arguably the most important building block of a GP is the kernel function which assumes the role of a covariance operator. Stationary kernels of the Mat\'ern class are used in the vast majority of applied studies; poor prediction performance and unrealistic uncertainty quantification are often the consequences. Non-stationary kernels show improved performance but are rarely used due to their more complicated functional form and the associated effort and expertise needed to define and tune them optimally. In this perspective, we want to help ML practitioners make sense of some of the most common forms of non-stationarity for Gaussian processes. We show a variety of kernels in action using representative datasets, carefully study their properties, and compare their performances. Based on our findings, we propose a new kernel that combines some of the identified advantages of existing kernels.


3D-Spatiotemporal Forecasting the Expansion of Supernova Shells Using Deep Learning toward High-Resolution Galaxy Simulations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Supernova (SN) plays an important role in galaxy formation and evolution. In high-resolution galaxy simulations using massively parallel computing, short integration timesteps for SNe are serious bottlenecks. This is an urgent issue that needs to be resolved for future higher-resolution galaxy simulations. One possible solution would be to use the Hamiltonian splitting method, in which regions requiring short timesteps are integrated separately from the entire system. To apply this method to the particles affected by SNe in a smoothed-particle hydrodynamics simulation, we need to detect the shape of the shell on and within which such SN-affected particles reside during the subsequent global step in advance. In this paper, we develop a deep learning model, 3D-MIM, to predict a shell expansion after a SN explosion. Trained on turbulent cloud simulations with particle mass $m_{\rm gas}=1$M$_\odot$, the model accurately reproduces the anisotropic shell shape, where densities decrease by over 10 per cent by the explosion. We also demonstrate that the model properly predicts the shell radius in the uniform medium beyond the training dataset of inhomogeneous turbulent clouds. We conclude that our model enables the forecast of the shell and its interior where SN-affected particles will be present.


Closing the Loop on Runtime Monitors with Fallback-Safe MPC

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

When we rely on deep-learned models for robotic perception, we must recognize that these models may behave unreliably on inputs dissimilar from the training data, compromising the closed-loop system's safety. This raises fundamental questions on how we can assess confidence in perception systems and to what extent we can take safety-preserving actions when external environmental changes degrade our perception model's performance. Therefore, we present a framework to certify the safety of a perception-enabled system deployed in novel contexts. To do so, we leverage robust model predictive control (MPC) to control the system using the perception estimates while maintaining the feasibility of a safety-preserving fallback plan that does not rely on the perception system. In addition, we calibrate a runtime monitor using recently proposed conformal prediction techniques to certifiably detect when the perception system degrades beyond the tolerance of the MPC controller, resulting in an end-to-end safety assurance. We show that this control framework and calibration technique allows us to certify the system's safety with orders of magnitudes fewer samples than required to retrain the perception network when we deploy in a novel context on a photo-realistic aircraft taxiing simulator. Furthermore, we illustrate the safety-preserving behavior of the MPC on simulated examples of a quadrotor. We open-source our simulation platform and provide videos of our results at our project page: https://tinyurl.com/fallback-safe-mpc.


Off the Beaten Track: Laterally Weighted Motion Planning for Local Obstacle Avoidance

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We extend the behaviour of generic sample-based motion planners to support obstacle avoidance during long-range path following by introducing a new edge-cost metric paired with a curvilinear planning space. The resulting planner generates naturally smooth paths that avoid local obstacles while minimizing lateral path deviation to best exploit prior terrain knowledge from the reference path. In this adaptation, we explore the nuances of planning in the curvilinear configuration space and describe a mechanism for natural singularity handling to improve generality. We then shift our focus to the trajectory generation problem, proposing a novel Model Predictive Control (MPC) architecture to best exploit our path planner for improved obstacle avoidance. Through rigorous field robotics trials over 5 km, we compare our approach to the more common direct path-tracking MPC method and discuss the promise of these techniques for reliable long-term autonomous operations.


An Automatic Tuning MPC with Application to Ecological Cruise Control

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Model predictive control (MPC) is a powerful tool for planning and controlling dynamical systems due to its capacity for handling constraints and taking advantage of preview information. Nevertheless, MPC performance is highly dependent on the choice of cost function tuning parameters. In this work, we demonstrate an approach for online automatic tuning of an MPC controller with an example application to an ecological cruise control system that saves fuel by using a preview of road grade. We solve the global fuel consumption minimization problem offline using dynamic programming and find the corresponding MPC cost function by solving the inverse optimization problem. A neural network fitted to these offline results is used to generate the desired MPC cost function weight during online operation. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is verified in simulation for different road geometries.


Energy stable neural network for gradient flow equations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Partial differential equations are important tools in solving a wide range of problems in science and engineering fields. Over the past twenty years, deep neural networks (DNNs) [12, 19] have demonstrated their power in science and engineering applications, and efforts have been made to employ DNNs to solve complex partial differential equations as an alternative to the traditional numerical schemes, especially for problems in high dimensions. Early works [5, 17] use feedforward neural network to learn the initial/boundary value problem by constraining neural networks using differential equation. Methods using continuous dynamical systems to model high-dimensional nonlinear functions used in machine learning were proposed in [6]. A deep learning-based approach to solve high dimensional parabolic partial differential equations (PDEs) based on the formulation of stochastic differential equations was developed in [14].


CapsuleBot: A Novel Compact Hybrid Aerial-Ground Robot with Two Actuated-wheel-rotors

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents the design, modeling, and experimental validation of CapsuleBot, a compact hybrid aerial-ground vehicle designed for long-term covert reconnaissance. CapsuleBot combines the manoeuvrability of bicopter in the air with the energy efficiency and noise reduction of ground vehicles on the ground. To accomplish this, a structure named actuated-wheel-rotor has been designed, utilizing a sole motor for both the unilateral rotor tilting in the bicopter configuration and the wheel movement in ground mode. CapsuleBot comes equipped with two of these structures, enabling it to attain hybrid aerial-ground propulsion with just four motors. Importantly, the decoupling of motion modes is achieved without the need for additional drivers, enhancing the versatility and robustness of the system. Furthermore, we have designed the full dynamics and control for aerial and ground locomotion based on the bicopter model and the two-wheeled self-balancing vehicle model. The performance of CapsuleBot has been validated through experiments. The results demonstrate that CapsuleBot produces 40.53% less noise in ground mode and consumes 99.35% less energy, highlighting its potential for long-term covert reconnaissance applications.


Are You Worthy of My Trust?: A Socioethical Perspective on the Impacts of Trustworthy AI Systems on the Environment and Human Society

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With ubiquitous exposure of AI systems today, we believe AI development requires crucial considerations to be deemed trustworthy. While the potential of AI systems is bountiful, though, is still unknown-as are their risks. In this work, we offer a brief, high-level overview of societal impacts of AI systems. To do so, we highlight the requirement of multi-disciplinary governance and convergence throughout its lifecycle via critical systemic examinations (e.g., energy consumption), and later discuss induced effects on the environment (i.e., carbon footprint) and its users (i.e., social development). In particular, we consider these impacts from a multi-disciplinary perspective: computer science, sociology, environmental science, and so on to discuss its inter-connected societal risks and inability to simultaneously satisfy aspects of well-being. Therefore, we accentuate the necessity of holistically addressing pressing concerns of AI systems from a socioethical impact assessment perspective to explicate its harmful societal effects to truly enable humanity-centered Trustworthy AI.


Fully Convolutional Generative Machine Learning Method for Accelerating Non-Equilibrium Greens Function Simulations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This work describes a novel simulation approach that combines machine learning and device modelling simulations. The device simulations are based on the quantum mechanical non-equilibrium Greens function (NEGF) approach and the machine learning method is an extension to a convolutional generative network. We have named our new simulation approach ML-NEGF and we have implemented it in our in-house simulator called NESS (nano-electronics simulations software). The reported results demonstrate the improved convergence speed of the ML-NEGF method in comparison to the standard NEGF approach. The trained ML model effectively learns the underlying physics of nano-sheet transistor behaviour, resulting in faster convergence of the coupled Poisson-NEGF simulations. Quantitatively, our ML- NEGF approach achieves an average convergence acceleration of 60%, substantially reducing the computational time while maintaining the same accuracy.